Yesterday’s over/under bet was smooth sailing — surprisingly led more by Ben Lively than Paul Skenes — and every gambler in the history of mankind wishes they all came that easy. Unfortunately, that’s not how it works.
We’re going to seek out another similar result from the same venue to close out the week, with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Cleveland Guardians and trying to avoid a three-game sweep.
One of the Pirates’ best starting pitchers, Mitch Keller, draws the assignment here. He’s off to a solid start this season, recording a quality start in all but one of his four outings. If not for a rough performance in which he was tagged by the New York Yankees in Pittsburgh’s home opener, Keller would have a far more attractive ERA (4.30) and WHIP (1.35) next to his name.
Although the Iowa native has experienced a decline in strikeouts — not just early this year but through 2024 overall — there are still things to like about Keller, especially when he’s in the right spot.
This matchup against the Guardians feels like one of those spots. First off, it’s a home game for Keller, who has generally pitched considerably better within the friendly confines of PNC Park than on the road. In 71 home games (70 starts), the 29-year-old holds a 4.07 ERA while limiting opponents to just 0.81 homers allowed per nine innings.
Contrast that with a 5.14 ERA and 1.27 HR/9 in 66 contests (65 starts) outside of Pittsburgh, and the differences are stark.
Keller’s ability to keep the ball in the park at home will serve him well in this matchup. Cleveland is tied for ninth in baseball in team home runs, so preventing the long ball could be a deciding factor in whether he goes deep in the outing — or at least turns in a quality start.
Notably, only one home run has been hit off Keller so far this season. If he can navigate the top half of Cleveland’s batting order, he should be able to continue keeping the ball in the yard, especially considering there’s no significant power threat beyond Carlos Santana in the No. 5 spot.
On the other side, Logan Allen is also doing a good job of limiting the long ball, allowing just one home run through his first few starts. After a rocky season debut, the former second-round draft pick has bounced back with a pair of strong outings and may now be tapping into the promise he showed when he first debuted.
In 2023, Allen impressed as a rookie, going 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA while nearly averaging a strikeout per inning. Last season didn’t go as planned — he was even sent down a few times — but the current version of Allen looks a lot like that solid rookie campaign.
Allen started turning heads during spring training, where he posted a sharp 1.89 ERA and struck out 19 batters in 19 innings.
Pittsburgh could be another favorable matchup. As noted in our under wager yesterday, the Pirates are one of the worst offensive teams to start the year — and even worse against left-handed pitching. They rank 24th in team batting average against lefties (.195), 27th in on-base percentage (.263) and 27th in slugging percentage (.302).
And it doesn’t stop there. The Bucs also strike out at a high clip against southpaws, fanning once every three at-bats. Yuck.
This total, however, should not generate a “yuck” reaction. Expect some quality starting pitching to take us home.
Pick: UNDER 8 (-102, DraftKings)
2025 MLB Betting Record: 14-12-1, -0
Over/Unders: 12-8-1
Props: 2-3
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Results: Guardians-Pirates Under 8.5 (WIN), Chris Sale Over 17.5 Outs (LOSS)
Each bet graded as if to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.
Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.
This news was originally published on this post .
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