How three playoff hopefuls retool, plus Steelers QB plan (with or without Aaron Rodgers)

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Inside: Draft guides for the mid-tier teams, why Dane Brugler’s seven-round mock suggests a historic first round and Dianna’s note on the Steelers’ draft plans.

Let’s dive in before Kirk Cousins orders salad with double chicken at a Chipotle near you, as the Falcons are reportedly engaging in trade talks.

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Guide to the Guides 📓

Let’s turn to three playoffs-or-bust teams in the latest edition of our series on The Athletic’s team draft guides. What you should know:

Bears (5-12)

The remarkable 2023 trade with the Panthers, together with the Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze draft, led to high expectations in Chicago. Those were not met, and the task of saving GM Ryan Poles, who sports a 15-36 record in his three years in Chicago, is now the responsibility of new HC Ben Johnson. Johnson wasted little time in molding the Bears in his image by adding five new starters in the trenches. But there’s still work to do.

Given how well Chicago’s needs align with who might be available at No. 10, “the ideal plan could be taking Jeanty or Warren and then drafting a pass rusher with the 39th or 41st pick,” wrote Adam Jahns in his post-free agency thoughts. But in this morning’s Bears mock draft 3.0, Adam passes on Warren for Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr., citing the deep class of running backs and tight ends.

49ers (6-11)

With 11 picks total, including four in the top 100 (Nos. 11, 43, 75 and 100), Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch can quickly recover from a disappointing 2024 and the offseason’s mass exodus. Their draft class has an opportunity to address plenty of needs:

A team that typically has more relative success on Day 3 (George Kittle, Dre Greenlaw) than in the first round, the 49ers appear likely to take an offensive tackle after Day 1, per beat reporter Matt Barrows, which suggests the first 49ers pick will reinforce Robert Saleh’s defense.

SF tends to host their draft picks for pre-visits, as Matt explained in his 49ers prospect tracker. This year, they hosted Dane Brugler’s No. 9 prospect Shemar Stewart (edge, Texas A&M), whom Dane mocked to the 49ers at No. 11 before handing them LT Anthony Belton (NC State) in the third round.

Cowboys (7-10)

Murphy’s law is usually summarized as “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” It also summarized the theme in Dallas last year, starting with Jerry Jones’ declaration that the Cowboys were “all in” before 2024’s mess ended Mike McCarthy’s tenure. In the previous three seasons, they’d had their best three-year record since the mid-’90s Super Bowl teams.

It was only the fourth losing season for the Cowboys since 2005 (!!). One reason for their generally consistent success is VP of Player Personnel Will McClay, who’s helped draft 15 Pro Bowl players, most of any NFL team since 2014. This April, their needs look similar to last offseason:

In beat reporter Jon Machota’s final Cowboys mock draft, he takes Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan at No. 12. McMillan joined WR Matthew Golden as two highly ranked receivers who made pre-draft visits to The Star headquarters. “If McMillan was not available, trading back would have been likely,” wrote Jon, notable since Saad Yousuf has written that “even if Ashton Jeanty is available, it doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are drooling over the opportunity to pick him.”

We’ll cover the AFC’s Colts and Bengals later this week. Up next, a quick note from Dianna:

What Dianna’s Hearing: Steelers’ plan — with or without Rodgers

While the Steelers wait on a decision from Aaron Rodgers about his future, they’re not hitting pause on their draft plans. I’m told they’re still expected to take a quarterback this week in Green Bay — that will obviously grab most of the headlines, but don’t sleep on their interest in this deep running back class either. With Najee Harris signing with the Chargers, Pittsburgh has done a lot of homework on backs they could grab on Day 2 or 3.

Back to you, Jacob.

Brugler’s Mock: 7 rounds, 7 notes

The NFL is a league where fortunes for the upcoming season are changed on draft night. No minor leagues to wait on. Draft well, and your team is rewarded with franchise-altering talent.

The Lions are a prime example, as they lead Nick Baumgardner’s list of best-drafting teams since 2020. Robert Mays calls them a team with “a distilled understanding of who they want to bring into their building” in today’s mailbag episode of “The Athletic Football Show.”

While former Detroit coordinators Johnson and Aaron Glenn try to replicate that success elsewhere, Dane Brugler does his part by predicting all 257 picks in the upcoming draft. Here are seven that caught my eye:

1. The Jaguars immediately upgrade their offense by drafting Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty at No. 5. It’s early — no running back has been picked top-five since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018.
2. Four picks later, the Saints pass on Shedeur Sanders to draft Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, whom they hosted for a top-30 visit.
3. At No. 21, the fall of Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders ends with the Steelers. They could still pair Sanders with Aaron Rodgers, who would join a roster with DK Metcalf and George Pickens for the most entertaining 10-7, wild-card-exit season in recent history.
4. Ohio State OT Josh Simmons is a top-10 talent, but a midseason knee injury and a reportedly uninspiring interview process means he’s available for the Chiefs at 31. The rich get richer.
5. Dane had zero trades occurring in round 1, the first time that’s happened since the AFL-NFL merger. It’s a potential record that has been jinxed endlessly, yet is still alive!
6. Those other quarterbacks go quickly in round 2: The Browns take Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart at 33, followed by the Giants drafting Alabama QB Jalen Milroe before the Saints get Louisville’s Tyler Shough, the buzziest QB among draft insiders.
7. Remember Cam Skattebo, the Arizona State RB with Christian McCaffrey-like numbers (1,711 rush yards, 605 receiving)? He lands with the Chiefs — second-best at identifying talent since 2020 — at No. 95.

We could still see trades for players like Ravens TE Mark Andrews (there’s “certainly been dialogue with other teams,” wrote our Jeff Zrebiec) or CB Jalen Ramsey, firmly on the Dolphins trade block, and Daniel Popper explains why you should keep an eye on the Chargers.

While front offices play mind games, let’s shift to a game of our own.

Special NFL Draft Connections: Sports Edition

You’ve read about the draft, can you answer some questions about it now? Tackle today’s special NFL Draft Connections: Sports Edition puzzle. Play now.

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(Photo:
Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

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