2025 NFL Draft betting: Shedeur Sanders ‘could go anywhere’ and his prop is drawing a lot of attention

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Everyone looks forward to for NFL Draft week except the sportsbooks. Betting on drafts is solely information-based, and with the power of social media, that knowledge comes in all different forms. Because that information can come from anywhere, bettors can beat sportsbooks to the punch if they see a rumor first, and then sportsbooks have to adjust quickly based on the resulting action.

For example, there was a Reddit post two years ago where a random user posted that Will Levis was “telling friends and family Carolina will take him on Thursday.” Levis’ odds to be the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft quickly made an enormous move from +4000 to +400 with all of the bets coming in on Levis to be taken first.

While that turned out to be false, other reports that turned long shots into betting favorites have come to fruition. It causes headaches for sportsbooks, and bettors have held the upper hand in previous years.

“Books tend to not do well on the draft,” said Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM. “We have numbers that we can go off of for pricing other markets. This is an event where we do not have that luxury. Because of that, we’ve had to adjust how we offer the draft. In 2020, I think we had well over 300 markets for the draft. Now we’re in the 50s for available markets. Some of that is stripping away markets that performed really poorly. Betting limits for the draft are also significantly lower than pretty much any other event we’ll list.”

So, what has stood out when it comes to early betting on the 2025 NFL Draft? A quarterback and a running back are the two hottest names on the sports betting streets in the days leading up to the grand event.

One polarizing quarterback with several rumored destinations is Shedeur Sanders. Four different teams are neck-and-neck on the odds board to take the Colorado quarterback: the Cleveland Browns (+250), Pittsburgh Steelers (+250), New Orleans Saints (+350) and New York Giants (+350).

Last Thursday, the Browns were the fourth choice at +700 to land Sanders, while the Saints were -115 favorites. Keep in mind, though, that Cleveland holds the No. 2 selection, where Sanders’ teammate Travis Hunter is a massive -2000 favorite to be the pick. Cleveland could end up taking Sanders in the second round with the No. 33 pick or even trade up to get back into the first round.

“To me, this is by far the most interesting market of this entire draft,” Cipollini said. “Shedeur could go anywhere from No. 3 to potentially very late in the first round. That leaves a lot of teams open and available to possibly take a quarterback. There are plenty of QB-needy teams, but there could also be a surprise team. Even if you look at last year, no one saw [Michael] Penix [Jr.] going to the Falcons.”

There’s also a chance that Sanders isn’t even the second quarterback picked after presumed No. 1 overall selection Cam Ward (Ward is -10000 to go first at BetMGM). Ole Miss signal-caller Jaxson Dart is +200 at DraftKings to be the second QB taken, with Sanders at -250.

Dart has attracted the most bets of any draft position prop at Circa, with his draft position moving from over/under 21.5 (over 21.5 is drafted 22nd or later, under 21.5 is drafted 21st or earlier) to over/under 25.5. Circa told The Athletic, however, that the sportsbook is rooting for the over on Dart after strong action came in on under 25.5 (picked 25th or earlier).

Earlier this month, BetMGM had over 2.5 quarterbacks in the first round at -325, with the under as the +240 underdog. The gap has closed significantly, with over 2.5 now at -135 and under 2.5 at +105.

“We have Dart’s draft position at 24.5,” Johnny Avello, race and sports operations director at DraftKings, said. “We’ve got some mixed money on that prop coming in both ways. But bettors have been betting under 2.5 quarterbacks going in the first round the entire time. So if there are three quarterbacks that go in the first round, that would be good for us.”

The other big name whose odds have moved all over the board is Ashton Jeanty. He has been viewed as the consensus top running back prospect in this draft, but there are several opinions on where he will land. Last Thursday, the Boise State star was the -150 favorite at BetMGM to be the sixth overall pick, which the Las Vegas Raiders currently hold.

Jeanty is still atop the odds board to go sixth overall at -105, but he’s now the favorite to go fifth overall as well at +105. Last Thursday, Jeanty was +650 to go fifth, a pick that belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, while Michigan defensive lineman Mason Graham led the way at -155. Graham is currently the second choice at +140.

“Jeanty being the favorite for fifth and sixth is because of all the uncertainty,” Avello said. “It looked like the Patriots would take [LSU offensive lineman Will] Campbell at four, and then Jacksonville would take Graham at five. That’s changed this week based on reports that the Patriots and Jaguars were interested in Jeanty. We still left Jeanty as the favorite for sixth because the Raiders would likely take him if he gets to them since he’s been linked there for a while.”

At BetMGM, Jeanty has received the most money of any player to go fifth overall (38 percent) and also the most for sixth overall (27 percent). Circa Sports shared with The Athletic that the draft position prop that has drawn the most money is Jeanty’s. The star running back’s draft position prop opened at 6.5 at Circa last week, with the under (drafted sixth or earlier) at even money. That same under 6.5 for Jeanty is now priced at -500.

“Jeanty to the Jaguars is the one that the book wants to avoid the most,” Cipollini said. “There’s been more interest from bettors on where Jeanty is going to go than anything else recently. If he goes to Jacksonville at five, it’s almost a guarantee that we’ll lose this draft. It would hit us in a few different ways, because we’d lose on Jeanty going in the top five, what team would draft him and what player would be the fifth overall pick.”

The Jaguars opened at +4000 at BetMGM as the team that drafts Jeanty, but now they’re the +120 co-favorites with the Raiders. Jacksonville has received 42 percent of the money among all bets for which team selects Jeanty, nearly double second-place Las Vegas at 22 percent.

(Photo: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)

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