- Milroe brings elite mobility to the table: The Alabama quarterback rushed for 979 yards in 2024 and earned an 81.8 PFF rushing grade, marks few others at the position can match.
- Risk remains a concern: Milroe ranks below the 50th percentile in nearly every stable passing metric, highlighting areas of development needed to thrive as an NFL passer.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and the draft class is rounding into shape. With the final PFF big board live and mock draft season in full swing, teams and analysts are gaining a clearer picture of the top prospects and the deepest position groups in this year’s class.
Projecting college football stars to the NFL is never an exact science, but by utilizing PFF grades and advanced data, we can gain a clearer picture of how prospects might transition to the next level. By analyzing performance trends, key metrics, and positional benchmarks, we can identify which players are best positioned to succeed — and which may face challenges — when transitioning from college to the pros.
SCOUTING SUMMARY
Milroe has one of the strongest arms in the class, and if he isn’t in the Tier 1 NFL arm category, he’s not far behind in Tier 2. That track background also makes him a lethal rushing threat — whether as a designed runner, a scrambler or when operating RPOs.
While his physical gifts make him an alluring prospect to invest in, his inconsistencies are why drafting and playing him early could end poorly. He is not consistently accurate. His twitchy throwing motion means that any deviation in his fundamentals can negatively impact ball placement. He also holds onto the ball too long, averaging over 3.00 seconds per dropback, leading to a high sack rate.
He also struggles to read non-primary defenders — he can key in on one or two defenders pre-snap but fail to see the full coverage picture post-snap. Though he is a great athlete, his passing grades and efficiency on the run are poor. He does, however, post strong numbers on third-and-long, with more than 50% of his throws going beyond the sticks and a solid number of big-time throws.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW JALEN MILROE RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS (2022-24)
Stable metrics are more reliable indicators of future success than volatile, high-variance stats. The most stable facets of a player’s performance are those measured over larger sample sizes, even if they may seem less impressive or “easier” on the surface. These metrics provide consistency, making them more predictive over time. While unstable metrics may capture highlight plays, they often fluctuate from year to year. Prioritizing stability provides a clearer picture of a player’s true ability and long-term potential.
Milroe’s profile in stable passing metrics leaves much to be desired — he ranks below the 50th percentile across the board, including concerning numbers in negative plays and sack rate. However, those metrics don’t account for his elite athleticism. Milroe rushed for 979 yards last season and earned an 81.8 PFF rushing grade, showcasing rare dual-threat ability that few quarterbacks in this class can match.
JALEN MILROE’S PROJECTIONS
In league-average circumstances, here are Jalen Milroe’s projections for yards per attempt and completion percentage as an NFL rookie:
Milroe’s rookie-year projections in a league-average scheme with a play-action rate of 25%, a pressure rate of 35%, a quick-throw rate (under 2.5 seconds) of 50% and a short-throw rate (before the sticks) of 63%.
Let’s examine how Jalen Milroe performs in a more favorable offensive environment. With a lower pressure rate, increased play-action usage, and more downfield opportunities, Milroe’s projected completion percentage improves slightly. However, his projected yards per attempt and passing grade per snap remain unchanged. That uptick in accuracy is notable, as one of the biggest concerns in Milroe’s profile is his ability to consistently place the ball with precision.
Milroe’s 2024 projections in a situation where 25% of his dropbacks have pressure and he runs play action on 30% of his dropbacks.
Now let’s see how Milroe performs in less favorable conditions. When facing a higher pressure rate and reduced play-action usage, his projected completion percentage takes a slight dip, while his yards per attempt and passing grade per snap remain steady.
Milroe’s 2024 projections in a situation where 40% of his dropbacks have pressure and he runs play action on just 15% of his dropbacks.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF’s 2025 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Milroe is the most physically gifted quarterback in the 2025 draft class, but he is still far too inconsistent in when and how he delivers the football. In a perfect world, he would be drafted with a plan to let him sit and develop.
This news was originally published on this post .
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