- Ward excels at throws at or beyond the sticks: Over the last three seasons, the Miami quarterback sits in the 74th percentile of PFF grade on such throws.
- Ward’s floor is solid regardless of rookie circumstances: Based on underlying PFF metrics, Ward’s rookie-year outcomes don’t differ drastically based on high or low pressure or play-action rates.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and the draft class is rounding into shape. With the final PFF big board live and mock draft season in full swing, teams and analysts are gaining a clearer picture of the top prospects and the deepest position groups in this year’s class.
Projecting college football stars to the NFL is never an exact science, but using PFF grades and advanced data, we can get a clearer picture of how prospects might transition to the next level. By analyzing performance trends, key metrics and positional benchmarks, we can identify which players are best positioned to succeed — and which may face challenges — when making the jump from college to the pros.
Let’s take a look at Miami’s Cameron Ward, who earned an impressive 92.9 PFF grade in 2024 — the best mark among draft-eligible quarterbacks — while averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.
SCOUTING SUMMARY
Ward’s journey from zero-star recruit to potentially the top quarterback in his class is inspiring. His overlooked and underappreciated path shapes his character and gameplay. He believed in himself when most others didn’t, making him one of the most confident quarterbacks in any situation.
His arm strength is good for the NFL, though not in the top tier. His throwing style is unorthodox and unique — he consistently throws with a sidearm motion, holds the ball low and often misaligns his hips and feet when throwing. As a result, his ball placement can be erratic, though it has also produced some incredible throws. His reads and progressions are generally correct, but he too often locks onto the biggest or longest throw, ignoring shorter options the defense gives him.
He is confident when throwing against single coverage, in tight windows and over the middle. On third down, he has graded well but doesn’t push the ball past the sticks as much as expected. Despite the chaotic nature of his play style, he has graded highly in almost every stable category — an ironic truth given the visual instability of his quarterback play.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each element is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW CAM WARD RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS (2022-24)
Stable metrics are more reliable indicators of future success than volatile, high-variance stats. The most stable facets of a player’s performance are those measured over larger sample sizes, even if they may seem less impressive or “easier” on the surface. These metrics provide consistency, making them more predictive over time. While unstable metrics may capture highlight plays, they often fluctuate from year to year. Prioritizing stability provides a clearer picture of a player’s true ability and long-term potential.
The stable metric that Cam Ward really excels at is his grading on throws at or beyond the first-down marker. Ward boasts a 94.8 grade on these throws, which ranks 32nd out of 122 qualifying QBs from 2022-24. Whoever drafts the former Miami and Wazzu quarterback should be getting a passer who is above-average at attacking the deep and intermediate parts of the field, as he showed in college.
The biggest weakness we can identify by looking at these stable metrics is Ward’s propensity to take too many sacks. Ward took 112 sacks on 1,669 dropbacks during these three seasons, giving him a 6.7% sack rate, which ranked 98th of 117 qualifying quarterbacks. The Hurricane passer’s average time to throw was 2.99 seconds last season, which was the 26th-highest mark among FBS quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks.
His pressure-to-sack rate of 15.8% ranked 21st among 56 draft-eligible quarterbacks last season, and that will need to be an area of improvement if Ward is going to keep his offense in good down-and-distance situations in the NFL.
CAM WARD’S PROJECTIONS
In league-average circumstances, here are Ward’s projections for yards per attempt and completion percentage as an NFL rookie:
Cam Ward’s rookie-year projections in a league-average scheme with a play-action rate of 25%, a pressure rate of 35%, a quick-throw rate (under 2.5 seconds) of 50% and a short-throw rate (before the sticks) of 63%.
Let’s examine how Cam Ward performs when we improve his situation. With a low pressure rate, a high play-action rate and more downfield looks, Ward comes in with a slightly below-average 6.9 yards per attempt and an increase of 0.5 percentage points in his completion percentage projection.
Ward’s projections in a situation where 25% of his dropbacks have pressure and he runs play action on 30% of his dropbacks.
Let’s also look at how Cam Ward does when we make the situation less favorable. With a high pressure rate and a low play-action rate, Ward’s projections don’t change too drastically, which could mean that Ward’s success at the next level may be less sensitive to situational differences than other prospects.
Ward’s projections in a situation where 40% of his dropbacks have pressure and he runs play action on just 15% of his dropbacks.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF’s 2025 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Appreciating Ward, an unorthodox, big-game quarterback, requires a leap of faith. He is ultra-confident, at times to a fault. His mentality could one day make him an All-Pro—if his fundamentals don’t drop him from the league entirely.
This news was originally published on this post .
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