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In just seven days, two of the most anticipated semi-final clashes in recent Champions League history await us.
Alongside Liverpool, who Paris Saint-Germain controversially defeated in the round of 16, Arsenal, Inter and Barcelona are among the five most tantalisingly tactical teams in the world.
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There is also additional intrigue to these clashes as the top goalscorer in the competition could be one of five players: one player out of the tournament, two teammates and two long shots. The recent news that one of these footballers suffered a potentially devastating injury has only added more chaos to an already fascinating subplot.
Armed with that new information, let’s dive into the Champions League top goalscorer odds and see which player may wind up finishing at the top.
The leader: Serhou Guirassy
- Champions League goals: 13
- Goals behind the leader: n/a
- Odds: 7/4
It’s a bit of a bizarre concept to bet on a player no longer in the competition, but thanks to taking the most penalties (six) in the competition, Guirassy is still clinging onto the lead. The thing about goals is that they’re really, really hard to score, and these semi-final matchups don’t ease that burden. Arsenal, PSG and Inter are three of the five best defensive clubs in this year’s campaign and Barca — who boast the next two contenders — will face two of those three sides even if they make it to the final.
Our advice: It’s not a fun bet, but it might be the smart one.
The deep dark horse: Ousmane Dembélé
- Champions League goals: 7
- Goals behind the leader: 6
- Odds: 50/1
Everything’s coming up PSG these days. Ligue 1 is in their pocket, and the club’s European feats have seen them knock out Premier League leaders, Liverpool, and a plucky Aston Villa side. Moving Dembélé from winger to striker has been the catalyst behind the recent change in form. But at six goals off the pace, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where even 50-to-1 odds on the 27-year-old to snag the Golden Boot make sense.
Arsenal are the best defensive team in the world and lead the competition in non-penalty expected goals (xG) allowed at a paltry 0.68. Even if PSG advance to the final, one of their potential matchups would be an Inter side that currently rank fifth in non-penalty xG. Throw in the fact that Dembélé isn’t even the Parisian’s primary penalty-taker — that’s Vitinha — and those odds don’t look nearly as appetizing.
Our advice: Stay away…
The wildcard: Lautaro Martínez
- Champions League goals: 8
- Goals behind the leader: 5
- Odds: 25/1
If there’s any player capable of narrowing a five-goal gap in three games, it’s Martínez. His team’s semi-final opponents, Barca, could be the perfect victims.
Indeed, the Spanish side’s intense pressing that can often leave space that Inter could exploit on the counter. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Martínez to have a couple of multi-goal performances before even reaching the final. Before rushing to bet on these odds, though, there are two key factors working against him.
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For starters, the Argentine’s eight goals in the competition have come off only 4.2 xG. While Martínez has been known to be an above-average finisher in his career, that gap is bound for some regression. The second thing is that, like Dembélé, Martínez is not his team’s primary penalty-taker — that’s Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Losing that path to extra goals is a huge drawback, especially when his team have at most only three matches left.
Our advice: Tempting, but probably still a no.
The wounded warrior: Robert Lewandowski
- Champions League goals: 11
- Goals behind the leader: 2
- Odds: 5/2
We finally have a striker who takes his team’s penalties but that potential boost has been crushed by the news that Lewandowski suffered a hamstring injury in the 78th minute against Celta Vigo this weekend and may miss the first leg of the semi-final.
Raphinha’s renaissance may have been stealing all the headlines, but Lewandowski is still Barcelona’s talisman. The Polish striker leads the club in total goals (40) and xG created (34.4) this season. Plus odds for a player with Lewandowski’s prowess to score just twice in potentially three matches would be a no-brainer. Unfortunately, his recent injury clouds the predictions.
Our advice: With a bad leg and bad matchup, best to stay away from a bad beat!
The revelation: Raphinha
- Champions League Goals: 12
- Goals behind the leader: 1
- Odds: 11/10
If you had suggested Raphinha would be the odds-on favourite to capture the Champions League top goalscorer honour at the start of the season, it could be assumed you were either a crazy person or possibly a seer. Yet here we are, just one week shy of the semi-finals, and the player who Barca were rumoured to be casting aside is now their best hope for goals.
There’s a lot of reason to like these odds as Raphinha is averaging 3.68 shots per 90 minutes on the year, 0.15 xG per shot (well above average), and will likely assume penalty duties in the absence of Lewandowski. Barcelona also remain favourites to win the competition, suggesting they are the most likely side to be guaranteed three matches.
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The only drawback is that while Raphinha has been outstanding, the Brazilian has been on an unsustainable, white-hot finishing run in Europe this season. The winger has scored his 12 goals off just 5.5 xG despite being a below-average finisher during his three-year run in La Liga (28 goals of 32.9 xG). That means if there’s a single player left in this competition due to miss some sitters, it’s Raphinha.
Our advice: With the penalty equity, it’s worth a shot but be prepared for the xG gods getting their revenge.
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(Photo of Serhou Guirassey: Alex Grimm / Getty Images)
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