Has Nolan Arenado played himself back onto the trading block? Why early returns may be good news for Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals as part of a shift in philosophy that’s been called a “reset” at times and merely a “transition” at others attempted to trade veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado this past offseason. Those efforts, of course, were not successful. 

No doubt, the front office in the service of lowering payroll wanted to trade other veterans, but Arenado was the only one who said he would consider waiving his full no-trade clause for the right situation. The Cardinals and Houston Astros got deep in talks, but the deal fell apart when Arenado declined to approve the trade. To hear Arenado tell it, he never invoked his clause to block a deal to Houston but rather wanted more time to think about it – more time than the Astros were willing to allow. 

So roughly one month into the 2025 season, Arenado is still a Cardinal. However, the possibility that he’ll eventually be traded out of St. Louis remains. Recently, MLB.com conducted a Q&A with Arenado that included the following relevant exchange: 

MLB.com: You are the veteran of this club. Do you think you will be with the Cardinals to guide these guys?

Arenado: I don’t know. We’ll see. We are playing hard right now. I think we are doing a good job. We still have to win a little bit more, compete a little bit better. Hopefully we can get on a [winning] streak here. If not, I would assume they would want to let these young guys run and go.

I know they don’t feel I’m in the way of that, but at the same time, sooner or later, you have to make a decision. I don’t mean this in a bad way, but I’m not part of their future plans. I’m older. That’s just part of it. When I say future plans, I’m talking about the next five years, plus. I understand that. Hopefully, we are winning so we can add at the deadline. If not, I’m assuming some questions will arise.

Speaking of “let[ting] these young guys run and go,” the post-Arenado plan for the Cardinals had been to install Nolan Gorman as the third baseman – his natural position – and shift Brendan Donovan from a super-utility to role to being the primary second baseman. Arenado’s return to the Cardinals via unrealized trade complicated those aims and squeezed Gorman’s playing time. What’s left is another complicated roster for manager Oliver Marmol and not as many clear and unimpeded paths to regular playing time for the Cardinals’ young hitters.

So has anything changed insofar as Arenado and the Cardinals are concerned? Yes, possibly. First and foremost, Arenado has thus far enjoyed a rebound at the plate. Potentially interested teams were no doubt side-eyeing Arenado after a 2024 season in which he continued a pattern of decline at the plate and behind it all showed the worst batted-ball metrics of his career. As Arenado approached his mid-30s, the worry about steep decline was a real one. So far in 2025, there’s some cause for optimism on that front. 

At present, Arenado is slashing .268/.375/.427 with a pair of home runs and seven doubles in 22 games, and he’s worked 10 unintentional walks against just seven strikeouts. That’s all good for an OPS+ of 126, which is a steep increase over last year’s 102 OPS+. Also encouraging is that Arenado, after an offseason devoted to more explosive, quick-twitch strength training, has increased his bat speed significantly and almost doubled his rate of fast swings (i.e., swings that register 75 mph or greater). At the same time, he remains elite at making contact – Arenado is in the 99th percentile among MLB hitters in strikeout rate and the 85th percentile in whiff rate. No, Arenado’s expected numbers don’t line up with his actual numbers, but he has a long history of out-hitting those. 

His fielding at third base remains elite. In terms of Statcast’s Outs Above Average, he’s in the 95th percentile of fielders, and Baseball Info Solutions ranks him 13th out of 93 players to appear at third base this season in Defensive Runs Saved. He’s still a difference-maker with the glove, and there’s ample reason to believe he’s arrested his decline at the plate, at least for now. 

As for Arenado’s contract, it remains a leading consideration. There’s the full no-trade provision, of course, and his deal calls for him to be paid the balance of a $32 million salary this season, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027. Arenado’s former team, the Colorado Rockies, will be paying $5 million of his salary this year and in 2026. Remove the Rockies’ obligations and the salary Arenado has already received for the current season, and that’s a remaining obligation of roughly $60 million through the 2027 season. In talks with the Astros, the Cardinals according to multiple reports were willing to kick in about $15 million in cash – in essence the cost of the additional year St. Louis added to Arenado’s contract in April of 2021. If that remains the case, then any team trading for Arenado must determine he’s worth around $45 million to them, with various tranches of deferred money included. 

The other facet of this is the Cardinals and their spot in the standings. Had that barged to a strong start in 2025, that may have disinclined them toward trading Arenado during the season. Things as they are, though, that’s not the case. The Cardinals presently find themselves 10-14 and in fourth place in the National League Central (+1400 to win the division, per Caesars). To be sure, being 4 ½ games out of first place in late April hardly equates to being buried, but consider the circumstances. The strength of the NL is such that it’s highly likely the three wild-card bids will come from some combination of NL West and NL East teams. That means the Cardinals’ most likely path to relevance is through the division race, but right now the Chicago Cubs look like far and away the best team in that circuit. They’re on pace for 97 wins, and they’ve authored that strong start despite playing what’s easily been the toughest schedule to date in MLB. The Cardinals, meantime, rank 22nd in strength of schedule, which means their road ahead is going to be much tougher than Chicago’s. SportsLine right now gives the Cardinals a 2.1% chance of making the postseason, and while that’s perhaps a bit light it’s not overly so. 

All of this is to say the two factors most essential to keeping the Arenado trade market alive – improved offensive performance on Arenado’s part and poor results at the team level for St. Louis – are trending in the necessary directions. It’s too speculative to get into trade specifics, but it’s worth noting a couple of situations. One, the New York Yankees, who employ Arenado’s close friend and former Cardinals teammate Paul Goldschmidt, may still see him as an upgrade over Oswaldo Cabrera at third base. As well, the Philadelphia Phillies have gotten miserable contributions from third baseman Alec Bohm this season (he takes a .508 OPS into Wednesday’s slate), and they’re in need of a lineup boost in the tough NL East. Elsewhere, if Max Muncy‘s struggles persist, then the Los Angeles Dodgers may be a team to monitor. It’s all fluid, of course. 

Things should crystallize further as we get closer to the July 31 trade deadline, but for now the potential for a headline-grabbing trade that sends Arenado out of St. Louis seems very much in play.