Landen Roupp, Tyler Anderson and more fantasy baseball targets with a dominating pitch

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Let’s mine Statcast data for the non-universally rostered pitchers with the most effective pitches thus far, trying to find lower-rostered hurlers who have at least one great arrow in their quiver.

We’ll look at a starter and reliever for each standout pitch. In cases where the overall performance, and even the overall expected performance, is not great or good, this is not a buy recommendation. But it means these pitchers are closer to turning things around than we might think.

Note: Stats are courtesy Baseball Savant, and roster rates are from Yahoo.

Four-Seam Fastball

Will Warren (NYY, 8% rostered) is getting 41.9% whiffs on his four-seamer, which is crazy high, as well as a very solid xwOBA of .256. Remember, the four-seam fastball is generally the pitch that hitters hit the best, so being about 80 points below average in xWOBA is outstanding. His actual ERA is 5.17 and xERA is 5.45, so he’s watch-list only for now.

Matt Strahm (PHI, 20%) is too valuable to close? This makes little sense by conventional wisdom, which holds that the best reliever is the closer. He’s the best reliever on the Phillies. Ironically, his lack of velocity is holding him back from the role, in addition to being a lefty, but he’s getting 30% whiffs on the pitch (87th percentile). And hitters have a .140 xwOBA versus his four-seamer (No. 1 among MLB pitchers).

Curveball

Landen Roupp (SF, 30%) has the best curve among low-rostered starters. He throws it 40.4% of the time, and the whiff rate against it is an absurd 56.8%. His other main pitch is a sinker, which is mediocre, but he also has a changeup that gets 40% whiffs. Roupp has an expected ERA of 2.92 and should be picked up everywhere right now.

Brendon Little (TOR, 5%): I get that he doesn’t have a path to closing and is a lefty, but 71% whiffs against his curve demands a roster spot. He’s whiffed 41.5% of batters faced.

Changeup

Tyler Anderson (LAA, 15%) is a guy none of us believe in. I get it. But the real and expected stats are good. His change is getting 41.4% whiffs, but it’s turned his fastball into the game’s third-best pitch in actual runs saved — with an xwOBA allowed of just .171, it’s electric. He should be rostered in every league.

Reese Olson (DET, 23%) generates 47.5% whiffs from his change, and it has an xwOBA against of just .160. Olson’s xERA is not far from his 4.50 actual, so you can’t pick him up yet as a mixed-league starter. If he threw the change 40% of the time instead of 25%, I bet it would make his fastball perform at least average, and he’d be a plus pitcher in mixed leagues. However, we have to wait and see if there are any signs of this.

Cutter

Chris Bassitt (TOR) is 85% rostered but has probably a one-start leash with his fantasy managers — I think it deserves to be two starts if not longer. His cutter gets 38.2% whiffs and has an xwOBA allowed of .124 — outrageous numbers. I don’t know how he’s become so good. He’s throwing it 18.2% of the time in 2025, slightly less than in 2024. Why not double his cutter usage?

Phil Maton (STL, 8%) is a soft-thrower, but he gets 34.6% whiffs on his cutter with a .179 xwOBA allowed. Ryan Helsley seems broken with almost 20% walks. Maybe Maton could be a lesser version of Mariano Rivera in the closer role. He’s never been bad. I understand he doesn’t fit the closer profile, but what about results?

Slider

Max Meyer (MIA, 67%) is probably gone in your league, but he’s someone to believe in. He is not a streamer. Meyer was the No. 3 pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy and probably won’t be able to stay healthy this year. He’s getting 53.5% whiffs on his slider with an xwOBA of .196. Note that throwing the slider is not an elbow killer. It’s the fastball and the deceleration of the arm that causes these injuries, typically when pitchers max out in effort.

Jordan Leasure (CHW, 0%) has a 1.70 WHIP. The White Sox shock us with any victory. But his slider gets 53.3% whiffs with an OK .270 xwOBA allowed, and his fastball has good velocity. Leasure’s xERA is 2.03 with an xBA allowed of .143. He may be the closer now, but we just don’t know it because the White Sox never win. At least reserve him. Someone probably gets 15 saves on this team.

Sweeper

Dustin May (LAD, 70%) is definitely a roster hold. I wrote him off. It feels like he hasn’t pitched since Carrot Top was a headliner. I want to see Carrot Top and May in the same room. May’s sweeper gets 38.7% whiffs with an xwOBA of .186. We’re not likely to ever get the strikeouts we want from him, but his floor is high when healthy.

Justin Lawrence (PIT, 0%) gets 45.7% whiffs on his sweeper. Let’s get real. Dennis Santana has 5 K in 10 innings and is not a closer. David Bednar hasn’t been good since 2023. Why not speculate on Lawrence, who also throws 95+ mph? His actual 0.84 ERA is great, but his expected is 3.01 (Santana’s is 5.04).

Splitter

Casey Mize (DET, 61%) is probably not available, but I recommend a set-it-and-forget-it approach with him for now. He’s in your rotation unless he’s bad for a month. His splitter gets 37% whiffs and a third-best .127 xwOBA against.

Fernando Cruz (NYY, 10%) is 35 but has a 40.4% strikeout rate due to his splitter, which is getting 55.6% whiffs. It’s fair to say the Yankees’ pen is clouded in uncertainty. His xERA is 1.87. Lefties are 2-for-16 with 7 K against the righty Cruz.

Sinker

Luis Severino (ATH, 36%) has a sinker that’s tied for the fifth-best pitch in preventing runs (actual, not expected). The strikeouts are going to be a problem, and he doesn’t have an out pitch. His xERA is 4.2,7 and his ground-ball rate isn’t even above average. I had to put some starter here for the sinker, which I believe should be junked by 70% of pitchers (Severino is in the other 30%, though).

Abner Uribe (MIL, 9%) throws the sinker on 62% of pitches and has an overall ground-ball rate of 73.9%. His second pitch, a slider, gets 65% whiffs. He throws the sinker at almost 100 mph. Trevor Megill is fighting a sore knee and has generally been ineffective, so Uribe could be next in line for saves for the Brewers. Just put Uribe on the watch list for now, given the strikeouts are not high enough to roster as a non-closer.

(Top photo of Landen Roupp: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)

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