Should the Maple Leafs change their lineup for Game 3 against the Senators?

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Craig Berube has an interesting decision to make ahead of Game 3: Should he make changes to a lineup that hung on to win Game 2 and has the Toronto Maple Leafs ahead 2-0 in the first-round series over the Ottawa Senators?

Coaches typically prefer to keep a winning lineup intact and Berube seemed to be leaning that way on Wednesday, though the Leafs coach added he hadn’t “made my mind up yet on that.”

There are legitimate reasons to change course, slightly, as the series shifts to Ottawa for Games 3 and 4.

The Senators have largely owned the five-on-five territorial space so far, managing 50(!) more shot attempts than the Leafs (127-77). The Leafs have won where it matters most in those minutes, though — on the scoreboard — outscoring Ottawa 5-2. (Credit, in part, goes to Anthony Stolarz, who owns a .957 save percentage in those spots, vastly outplaying Linus Ullmark, who has an .848 save percentage at five-on-five through two games.)

The first and fourth lines have delivered strong performances so far and should obviously be left intact.

It’s the middle of the lineup that has been problematic and worthy of scrutiny for Berube and his staff.

Though he buried the overtime winner in Game 2, the Max Domi-led third line had an otherwise challenging night. The unit of Domi, Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson won just 31 percent of the expected goals in around seven minutes and crucially gave up the game-tying goal to Adam Gaudette in the third period.

And that was on home ice, where Berube could protect them somewhat from exposure to the Senators’ first and second lines.

Domi’s two least frequent opponents in Game 2 were Ottawa top-unit staples Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux.

With control over the matchups in Game 3, Sens coach Travis Green figures to try to boost those numbers and pick on what’s easily the Leafs’ most vulnerable defensive line.

During the regular season, the McMann-Domi-Robertson combo won less than 40 percent of the expected goals on the road, though they did outscore teams 7-2.

So what exactly could, or should, Berube do?

He could try to bring a more stable defensive presence in the middle of that unit, to start with.

First option: Pontus Holmberg.

Holmberg started the series in that spot before quickly moving up to play alongside John Tavares and William Nylander midway through Game 1. The results were mixed: The line created the Leafs’ first goal in Game 2, and Holmberg drew yet another penalty that led to a power-play goal from Tavares. However, possessions in the offensive zone frequently died on his stick.

Moving Holmberg down for security purposes would create a hole on the left wing of Tavares and Nylander and a (re-emergence of a longstanding) question of who exactly should fill it.

McMann feels like the most obvious answer. Yet, he’s stuck in a scoring rut and has hardly played in this series, with just under 12 minutes of ice time in both Games 1 and 2, second-fewest among Leafs. He also lost his second-line gig late in the regular season.

Berube could try moving Domi back up after his punchy end to Game 2. But that doesn’t feel the least bit tenable with how poorly things went early in Game 1.

A more enticing option might be Max Pacioretty. Before the series, Berube said Pacioretty was in “conversation all the time” to play. Now might be the time to get him in alongside Tavares and Nylander for a forward group that looks as follows:

Knies – Matthews – Marner
Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander
McMann – Holmberg – Domi
Lorentz – Laughton – Järnkrok

Alternatively, the Leafs could wedge McMann in with the Tavares group and pair Pacioretty up with Holmberg and Domi:

Knies – Matthews – Marner
McMann – Tavares – Nylander
Pacioretty – Holmberg – Domi
Lorentz – Laughton – Järnkrok

Berube may want to leave Holmberg where he is.

It hasn’t always looked pretty, but the numbers are pretty definitive; the Leafs routinely win the Holmberg minutes when he’s hanging with Tavares and Nylander.

The Leafs could leave Holmberg where he is, keep Domi in the 3C gig and try to limit his minutes, and decide whether a change is warranted on his wing with Pacioretty.

This brings us to another part of this discussion: Is it time to take Robertson out?

If the Leafs are going to make a change, he’s the only viable candidate to come out right now. Robertson took a costly high-sticking penalty in the offensive zone in Game 2 that led to the Sens’ first goal, and while he did help set up a goal for Morgan Rielly in Game 2, he has managed just one shot, total, all series. He’s played the fewest minutes of any Leaf through two games.

If the Leafs are going to start wearing their rivals down and creating some more offensive zone time, Pacioretty might be the best candidate to help them do that with his 6-foot-2, 217-pound frame and sometimes thundering physicality. At some point, if they’re to go on a long run, the Leafs will probably need him. They may as well get him re-involved early in these playoffs.

Bonus: If it doesn’t work and it’s only a one-game thing, Robertson feels destined to come back and score after a night in the press box.

On the other hand, 36-year-old Pacioretty hasn’t played in more than two months and isn’t the quickest player at this point in his career. The McMann-Domi-Robertson combo tends to explode on the odd night.

If not Pacioretty, the coaching staff could turn to David Kämpf instead and try to build some sort of low-risk line that way — though that gets awkward with Domi in the mix. What could a line with some combination of McMann, Domi, Holmberg and Kämpf really accomplish?

Up 2-0, the temptation will be to do nothing.

My take: Bring Robertson out, put Pacioretty in (somewhere) and try to establish more balance in the middle of the lineup.

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey

(Photo of Pontus Holmberg fending off Thomas Chabot: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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