- Teams don’t wait for their desired quarterbacks: Recent drafts tell us that if a quarterback doesn’t go in Round 1, they likely have to wait until Round 3 to hear their name called.
- The Power Four will dominate the first round: That won’t stop Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty from hearing his name called early, but history tells us that NFL teams will target players from college football’s top conferences.
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The NFL draft is an inexact science, but that won’t stop us from trying to learn from the past. From drafting quarterbacks early to passing on non-Power Four players in Round 1, here are four lessons from last year to help us better understand the 2025 NFL Draft.
Teams won’t wait on quarterbacks … or will they?
If recent NFL drafts have taught us much, it’s that NFL teams won’t wait on quarterbacks. Over the past four years, just two quarterbacks, Will Levis and Kyle Trask, have been selected in the second round — and even then, Trask was selected one spot before the third round. There haven’t been many in the third round, either, with just five quarterbacks selected there over the same span. So, if Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe don’t hear their names called in Round 1, they might be waiting longer than anticipated on Day 2.
That could be why the possibility of both being drafted in the first round grow seems to be growing louder the closer we get to the draft. If a team likes the upside of Dart, who led all quarterbacks in his draft class with a 7.1% big-time throw rate in 2024, or the ceiling of Milroe, who is an elite runner with a better than 2-to-1 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy-play ratio, it’s unlikely that they will risk waiting until the second round.
And if a team is willing to let them fall to the second round, there’s a good chance they aren’t high enough on their board to draft them over a potential starter early on Day 2.
Teams prioritize the trenches in Round 1
The trenches matter in the NFL — consider that at least 15 offensive or defensive linemen have been selected in the first round of each of the past three NFL drafts. The 2025 class is shaping up to be no different.
Half of the top 32 players on PFF’s big board heading into Thursday’s draft are trench players, and with another 10 in the top 50, it really shouldn’t shock anyone if we get close to 20 selections across either line by the end of Day 1. It will likely start with Penn State edge defender Abdul Carter, who led all edge defenders in this draft class with a 92.4 PFF pass-rush grade in 2024, but the strength of both lines means that this draft could be legendary for its trench talent.
Power Four Schools Still Reign Supreme
Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell was the only non-Power Four player picked in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, while none were selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
That won’t stop Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty from hearing his name called on Thursday night, almost certainly in or around the top 10, and with the Heisman Trophy runner-up setting a PFF record with 152 missed tackles forced, it’s not hard to see why. The Power Four’s supremacy may mean that players like Marshall’s Mike Green and North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel could have a longer wait than expected, however.
Days 2 and 3 will yield immediate NFL contributors
Every team still has its original first-round draft pick, as of Wednesday night, and will be expecting to find someone who can contribute right away if they make that selection on Day 1. However, the 2024 NFL Draft, perhaps more than any other in recent memory, served as a reminder — however obvious — that starters are available outside of the first round.
Of the 11 rookie offensive linemen who played at least 400 snaps and earned a PFF grade of at least 60.0 in 2024, just five were drafted in the first round. At wide receiver, three of the eight rookies to reach at least 500 yards were drafted after Round 1. Eleven of the 16 defensive rookies to play at least 400 snaps and earn a PFF grade above 70.0 didn’t hear their names called on the first night.
This news was originally published on this post .
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