Betting on the NFL Draft has become so popular in recent years that you can take all the markets that are offered from various sportsbooks and get a pretty decent picture of how the first round is going to shake out. For example, Cam Ward is -20000 to be selected first overall, Travis Hunter is -1100 to be picked second, and Abdul Carter is -700 to go third overall. Those are implied probabilities of 99.5, 91.7 and 87.5 percent, respectively. So, let’s attempt to take these odds and make a betting-market mock draft for the entire first round.
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The process gets a little murky outside of the top 10, but to fill in the gaps, we can use the markets for which position each team will select. If we need any further help, we can look at the over/unders for each player as well as our consensus big board.
1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
This has been no secret for some time now, and the prices on Cam Ward imply this as a virtual lock. Unless we see one of the biggest draft day surprises, Cam Ward will be the first name off the board tonight.
2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
It’s a very chalky top of the draft, and Hunter being a unicorn of a prospect is not as much of a lock as Ward, but is still over 90 percent to go second overall. The drama with this pick is whether the Browns plan to use him as a wide receiver, a cornerback or both.
3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, edge, Penn State
There is a small chance that the Giants go quarterback here, but the overwhelming favorite is the elite pass rusher out of Penn State. The market isn’t as confident in Carter with the third pick as the first two picks, but an implied probability over 85 percent with Travis Hunter being the second-most-likely pick at this slot means there won’t be much drama here.
4. New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
The fourth pick is where things could get interesting, but the betting market thinks that’s unlikely. Will Campbell is -400 to go fourth overall, and despite the fact that he’s not an elite prospect like the picks before him, it seems New England is dead-set on making Campbell its guy.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Now this is where the draft actually starts to get interesting. For a long time, Mason Graham was the favorite to be selected fifth, but in the last few days, all the smoke has turned towards Ashton Jeanty. The elite RB prospect is -170 to be selected here, far from the “locks” we are seeing at the top of the draft.
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6. Las Vegas Raiders: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Membou is actually tied with Kelvin Banks Jr. in odds for this pick at the best available price, but when you adjust for the fact that the market has to factor in the possibility of these players being selected with prior picks, I have to give the edge to Membou here. There is a good amount of smoke for Banks to be the pick here, so this is probably more of a coin flip in reality.
7. New York Jets: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
Similarly to how Banks was in a virtual tie with Membou to go sixth overall, he’s in a near tie with Graham for the seventh pick. I’m using a little intuition here, where I think the Jets are more likely to take an offensive player than a defensive player at this pick, so Banks gets the nod.
8. Carolina Panthers: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
After being pegged as a top-five selection for most of the draft process and a consensus top-five player in the draft class, Graham’s fall stops here with Carolina. Jalon Walker is a close second here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes here.
9. New Orleans Saints: Jalon Walker, edge, Georgia
Another coin flip, but Walker gets the edge over fellow teammate Mykel Williams. Walker is the better prospect, according to the consensus big board, and has significantly better odds of being selected in the top 10. However, both players have a wide range of potential draft positions.
10. Chicago Bears: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Warren would fit perfectly in new head coach Ben Johnson’s offense. Warren is the current favorite to be selected here at +325, and the next most likely pick is Jeanty at +500 and Kelvin Banks Jr. at +650.
11. San Francisco 49ers: Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
12. Dallas Cowboys: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
13. Miami Dolphins: Mykel Williams, edge, Georgia
14. Indianapolis Colts: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
15. Atlanta Falcons: Shemar Stewart, edge, Texas A&M
16. Arizona Cardinals: Mike Green, edge, Marshall
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Donovan Ezeiruaku, edge, Boston College
18. Seattle Seahawks: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
20. Denver Broncos: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
21. New York Giants (via Steelers): Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss
I had to make a trade to get Dart into the first round because the market says so.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
23. Green Bay Packers: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
24. Minnesota Vikings: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
25. Houston Texans: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
26. Los Angeles Rams: Grey Zabel, IOL, North Dakota State
27. Baltimore Ravens: Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
28. Detroit Lions: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
29. Washington Commanders: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
30. Buffalo Bills: Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
(Photo of Travis Hunter: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images for ONIT)
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