Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM, has said that “books tend not to do well on the draft.”
Recently, rumors, coupled with the rise of social media, have played a significant role in that outcome.
A couple of years ago, a Reddit post by a random user lit the internet and sportsbooks on fire. A poster had said that Will Levis was “telling friends and family that Carolina will take him on Thursday.” The post, of course, got aggregated and amplified across all of the internet, causing Levis’ No. 1 pick odds to free-fall from +4000 to +400, with all of the bets coming in on Levis to be the first pick.
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Another rumor has now taken over the lead-up to the 2025 NFL Draft, this one dealing with Boise State star running back Ashton Jeanty. While no NFL insider has officially announced anything regarding Jeanty, all major sportsbooks have seen his odds shift drastically as of Thursday afternoon.
Earlier this week, Jeanty became the betting favorite to be the fifth overall pick at BetMGM. That pick currently belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. As of Thursday morning, the Jaguars were -200 (bet $200 to win $100) favorites to draft Jeanty, followed by the Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears at +300 (bet $100 to win $300 each), respectively. But, those odds have moved significantly leading up to the draft, as the Bears are now -190 favorites to land Jeanty, with the Jaguars in second at +135 and the Raiders a distant third at +850.
Jeanty is still the clear favorite to be the fifth overall pick as well at BetMGM, as he’s priced at -300. The second choice is Michigan defensive lineman Mason Graham at +360.
So, if the odds are suggesting Jeanty will be the fifth pick and that the Bears will draft Jeanty, the question on everyone’s minds becomes: Do we have a trade brewing?
“We saw something similar with J.J. McCarthy last year, where there was late movement on his team odds that suggested a trade would happen,” said Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM. “With what we’re seeing on the bookmaking side, there’s certainly a lot of interest in Jeanty now going to the Bears. It’s enough where it’s flipped from where he was a small favorite this morning to go there to now us having it as a 65% chance that he ends up going to the Bears.”
And where does this all leave the Jaguars? The Bears currently hold the No. 10 pick, and there has been a significant shift for that market as well.
On Monday, Penn State tight end Tyler Warren was the +350 favorite to be the 10th overall pick, followed by Jeanty at +375. Much further down the board was Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan at +2200 odds. Even earlier Thursday, McMillan was still listed as a +1100 long shot.
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But McMillan is now a +325 co-favorite with Warren to be the 10th pick, even though the Bears already have D.J. Moore and last year’s first-round pick, Rome Odunze, at wideout. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have a bunch of question marks in their receiving corps behind Brian Thomas Jr., especially with Christian Kirk moving on to the Kansas City Chiefs and Evan Engram joining the Denver Broncos.
Additionally, BetMGM also has a betting market for which team will draft McMillan. The Jaguars are now +175 co-favorites there along with the Dallas Cowboys. No other team has odds shorter than +1100, except for those two.
Bets have also been pouring in today on another major move in the top 10, this time for a quarterback.
“There’s been the most action on Jeanty and McMillan props today, along with Jaxson Dart,” Cipollini said. “We’ve taken a lot of money on him to go in the top 10 and top 5. He hasn’t been projected in that range, but we’ve seen a good amount of action of him going a lot higher than expected.”
Dart’s odds to be selected in the top 5 have moved from +6700 earlier today down to +750 — the same price as Shedeur Sanders. Dart also moved from +550 to +310 to be a top-10 pick, having better odds in that market than Sanders at +400.
Will we see a major swap involving the Jaguars’ No. 5 pick and the Bears’ No. 10 pick tonight? Regardless of what happens, the sportsbooks are not taking any chances.
(Photo: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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