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Barcelona and Real Madrid will lock horns this weekend in the Copa del Rey final, adding a famous Clásico spice to an already prestigious showpiece event. Let’s look at the game and how it might shake out through a betting lens, finding the best value picks along the way.
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Barcelona are justifiable favourites
This will be the third Clásico of the season and it’s been a case of so far, so great for Barca. They beat Madrid 4-0 in LaLiga in October (although that scoreline is a touch deceptive; we’ll explore later), and 5-2 in January in the Supercopa final.
With that dominance asserted, and the fact they got an extra day’s rest in the lead-up to this match (Barça played Tuesday night, Madrid played Wednesday), it’s no surprise to see the bookmakers install them as clear favourites to lift the trophy.
Naturally, the odds start to lengthen if you take them to win after potential extra time (11/10) or in 90 minutes (1/1), but at no point do they drop below at least evens. Madrid, meanwhile, are as far out as 15/8 to win in 90 minutes and a shade better than evens to win after potential extra time.
The formbook suggests there’s a reason for that, but considering the injury news that threatens to shape this game, perhaps it’s Los Blancos who start to stick out as the value bet here.
Mbappé in, Lewandowski out?
Barca’s gutsy, squeaky 4-3 win over Celta Vigo last weekend – courtesy of a 97th-minute Raphinha goal – came at a cost: Robert Lewandowski, LaLiga’s top scorer with 25 goals, limped off late on and is now a doubt for the final.
He watched from the stands on Tuesday and La Blaugrana fired 40 shots at Mallorca’s goal, racking up 3.3 xG in the process, yet only winning by a solitary goal. It was oh-so-close to becoming one of those nights where people point to the Pole’s absence and ask what could have been.
Those statistics make one thing extremely clear: With or without Lewandowski, Barca will create chances; but without him, they may struggle to put them away. It should be noted that Raphinha, Barça’s second-top-scorer with 15 LaLiga goals, was being rested, so manager Hansi Flick had effectively removed 40 goals from his team and asked the others to step up. They did—just.
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Madrid appear much more likely to come out on the happier side of striker injury news: Kylian Mbappé, who limped off against Arsenal last week and missed the last two league games, is expected to be fit for the final, according to Carlo Ancelotti.
He’s proved a bit of a janky fit in Madrid’s tactical system this season – adding him to the team and losing Toni Kroos to retirement has unbalanced the XI – but Mbappé has still scored 32 goals and counting in white. His searing pace and unerring finish, in conjunction with Vinícius Jr, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham, will pose a massive threat to Barca’s goal.
Players with 25+ goals and 15+ assists in a season over the last 10 years in Europe’s top 5 leagues:
— Mo Salah this season
— Kylian Mbappé in 2021/22
— Lionel Messi in 2019/20
— Luis Suárez in 2015/16 pic.twitter.com/BFKFORQaf4— StatMuse FC (@statmusefc) April 18, 2025
Raining goals
Let’s return to that 4-0 Clásico in favour of Barca from October, which happened to be Mbappé’s first taste of this historic rivalry.
On paper it went terribly for him – and in practice? It was even worse. He missed two one-on-ones and saw two goals disallowed in part because he was flagged offside an astonishing eight times. Barça’s hyper-aggressive offside trap trusted its instincts and caught him out over and over.
Neither party will change tact on Saturday. La Blaugrana will operate a high line and look to catch the Frenchman offside, while he will run off the shoulder of the defence constantly, reaching out into those big spaces. It will go, quite literally, one of two ways: Either the high line works, or Mbappé wreaks havoc.
Meanwhile, Madrid seem destined to leak chances at the other end, regardless of who Ancelotti chooses for his XI. If the midweek 1-0 win over Getafe is anything to go by, in which Los Blancos gave up a ridiculous 2.2 xG and had to rely on Thibaut Courtois to see them through a nervy final 10 minutes, then Barça are poised to rip them apart. Losing Eduardo Camavinga and David Alaba to injury in that game only made the evening feel more sour.
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All signs point to yet another goal-filled Clásico here. The market agrees, pricing over 2.5 goals at a stingy ½, but over 3.5 nudges you into value territory at 5/4. Perhaps a better strategy would be to take Barca to win and over 2.5 goals, which is priced at 9/5.
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(Photo of Raphinha: Alex Caparros / Getty Images)
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