Athletics designated hitter Brent Rooker finished tied for fifth in the MLB in home runs (39) last season and has already hit seven during the 2025 MLB season. He has gone yard in three of his last six games, including on Tuesday against Texas. Rooker has a matchup against Rangers star Jacob deGrom during the Thursday MLB schedule. He is listed at +400 to go yard in the latest MLB HR prop bets for Thursday at BetMGM Sportsbook. Despite deGrom’s 3.32 ERA, he has allowed five home runs across four appearances, so you could still include Rooker in your MLB HR bets. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-6 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets on Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called a HR prop in 11 of the last 16 days and is up 36.8 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Thursday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +35650 odds and would pay out $3,565 on a $10 bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Wyatt Langford, Rangers (+450)
Langford hit his team-leading sixth home run of the season on Wednesday, going yard for the second straight game against the Athletics. The 23-year-old was bumped up to second in the lineup prior to this series, and he has delivered for manager Bruce Bochy. Five of Langford’s six home runs have come in April, and three of them have come in his last four games played.
“Although JT Ginn has been really good against right-handed batters this season, Langford is seeing beach balls right now, and I think that +450 is a strong price for a hot hitter in a HR friendly environment,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. The model has Langford at +410 to homer in its projections, providing value on this +450 line at DraftKings.
Junior Caminero, Rays (+550)
The 21-year-old third baseman leads Tampa Bay with five home runs, even though he has not gone yard since last Thursday. He is facing Diamondbacks starting pitcher Corbin Burnes, who has allowed at least 22 home runs in each of the last three seasons. Burnes has given up four long balls so far this season, with three of them coming via right-handed batters.
“Caminero has the highest bat speed in the majors and posts similar bat speed numbers to Giancarlo Stanton, so when he makes good contact, the ball has a chance to go very far,” Fetner said. “I think +550 is a solid price for Caminero in homer friendly Arizona.”
Christian Yelich, Brewers (+900)
While Yelich is not hitting as many home runs as he did in 2018 and 2019, he still has the ability to go yard. He has five home runs in 24 games this season, including one against San Francisco on Tuesday. Yelich has a .895 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 2025, and all five of his homers have come against righties. The model has this priced at +500, making it a strong longshot play.
“Landen Roupp doesn’t allow many HRs which is a big reason why the line is where it is at, but he’s still allowing a decent amount of contact this season and it just takes one mistake pitch for Yelich to go yard,” Fetner said. DraftKings once again has the best line at +900, while it is as low as +650 at Caesars.
More MLB picks for Thursday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 72-33 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 14-5 in his last 19 ATS picks involving Minnesota, and he has locked in his pick for Twins vs. White Sox on Thursday.
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