MLB roundtable: Is it time to worry about Roki Sasaki?

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Kavner: If the last decade of ineptitude — and the possibilities ahead with Paul Skenes headlining the rotation — haven’t convinced owner Bob Nutting that it’s time to actually spend some money to improve the team, I’m not sure what will. The most exciting young pitcher in baseball fell in their laps and yet, even after nine straight seasons missing the playoffs and eight straight seasons finishing fourth or fifth in the division, they’re doing nothing to surround Skenes with the talent needed to produce a winning product. Their offseason was a farce, and to absolutely no one’s surprise, their offense has been just as bad to start the 2025 season. Nothing against Spencer Horwitz, who has yet to debut in Pittsburgh since the Pirates traded for him in December, but that was never going to be enough to fix one of the worst lineups in MLB.

Skenes was an obvious win as the top overall pick in 2023, and Bubba Chandler should soon add another intriguing piece to the Pirates’ rotation, but the Pirates have failed to draft, develop or otherwise unearth offensive difference-makers under general manager Ben Cherington. Since his arrival after the 2019 season, the Pirates have ranked 30th, 29th, 29th, 26th and 28th in wRC+, and it’s not like a bunch of help is set to arrive soon. The trades they’ve made haven’t stockpiled the minor-league ranks with a pipeline of talent. Most farm-system rankings place the Pirates somewhere near the middle of the pack, which doesn’t bode well for a team that refuses to spend to supplement the roster. It might be time for a front-office change, but then again, good luck finding any GM who can produce a consistently winning product with a perennial bottom-five payroll. The problem starts at the very top. Until or unless Nutting decides to actually invest in his team — or sell it — it’s hard to imagine a regime switch will yield meaningful change.

Thosar: Well, it’s clear Bob Nutting isn’t going to bring success to the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise. The organization has a sub-.500 record since Nutting became the principal owner in 2007, and now that players on the roster are apparently getting distracted by the crowd’s “sell the team!” chants, that record will likely continue to plummet. It’s unfortunate that Pirates fans are placed in this position, because even if Nutting did sell the team, there’s no guarantee the next owner would keep the club in Pittsburgh. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has long wanted a major-league team in an up-and-coming city like Nashville, and the next owner he approves to take over could very well take the Pirates out of PNC Park. In an ideal world, a top-to-bottom regime change should be in order, though. I’m just not sure that would be in the fan base’s best interests right now. Rock and a hard place, it is.

Aaron Judge is leading the American League in just about every offensive category besides stolen bases — as of this writing, he’s tops in wins above replacement, runs, hits, RBI, average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS+, total bases, you name it. However, that’s also a little normal for him at this point. Snap judgment: at 33 years old, have we already seen the best of Judge, or does he have another gear left to show us?

Kavner: It’s kind of incredible that his slash line numbers are all better right now than they were in both his 2022 and 2024 MVP seasons. Still, the further he gets into his mid-30s, it’s hard to imagine another level beyond the extraordinary one he has already reached. Maybe he can win a batting title? I think that’s certainly within the realm of possibility after hitting over .300 in two of the last three seasons. He came close to accomplishing the feat last year, and as of Wednesday morning, he’s hitting .411.  Otherwise, it’s hard to fathom he hits 70 homers or slugs .800, which is pretty much what he’d have to do to find another gear. If he can maintain this version for the next couple years, that is remarkable enough.

Thosar: I stopped thinking we’ve seen the best of Judge a couple of years ago. No one really expected him to top his career year after he hit a record-breaking 62 home runs in 2022. At the time, it was hard to fathom the slugger playing better than the 131 RBI, 111 walks, 1.111 OPS, 206 wRC+ and 11.1 fWAR he recorded in his first career MVP season. But he was on the same path before he jammed his toe at Dodger Stadium in 2023, and then his video-game numbers in 2024 (58 home runs, 144 RBI, 133 walks, 1.159, 218 wRC+, 11.2 fWAR) meant a new career year and a second MVP award. That Judge has continued topping his expectations is nothing short of astonishing. He’s elite at making the necessary adjustments, and I think he’ll continue adapting as he gets older and deeper into his career.

The Rays called up one of their top prospects, Chandler Simpson, last week. The rookie stole 93 bases in the minors in 2023, then 104 more in 2024; his speed is the 80-grade elite variety, and he already broke up a Yankees‘ no-hitter with those legs. What kind of ballplayer are the Rays looking at here? Does he have more to offer than just wheels?

Kavner: It’s a truly different type of speed (as you alluded to) and makeup than we’re accustomed to seeing from most prospects. It’s not just that Simpson’s wheels allow him to rack up steals at a breathtaking rate — which they do, and should make the Rays’ offense more dynamic — but also that the rest of his game plays into his absurd speed so well.

Simpson had the highest batting average and the second-lowest strikeout rate among all minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances last year. He rarely whiffs, and he keeps the ball on the ground. That’s not something most hitters strive to do, but Simpson is not most hitters. He has the ability to beat out even routine grounders. He could help himself out by drawing more walks, and his weak contact and slap-hitting nature — his only home run as a pro was an inside-the-parker — cap his ceiling. But he’s a threat on the bases unlike anyone else in the league, and if his low whiff rate translates against big-league pitching, he could be a difference-maker for a Rays offense that already wants to run.

Thosar: I’m not yet convinced Simpson has the bat to stick around in the big leagues, but we already know his speed is the real deal. At his best, it seems like he could be the Rays’ version of Luis Arraez, in that he has no power whatsoever, but he can make contact at an excellent clip. Simpson’s .355 batting average last year led all minor-league players, across all levels, with a minimum of 350 plate appearances. You’d think that wouldn’t make me question his bat, but there’s an enormous disparity between minor league and major league pitching, particularly when it comes to hitting the fastball. It’s possible Simpson’s extended run in The Show, due to multiple Tampa Bay players dealing with injuries, will help him find a consistent plate approach that helps him stick around.

We’re now five starts into Roki Sasaki’s MLB career, and he has as many walks as strikeouts. What have you seen from him that tells you that his tough April will just be temporary, and what suggests it might be a while yet before the Dodgers can feel comfortable with him on the mound?

Kavner: With Sasaki, it was always about potential. The Dodgers (and Sasaki himself) knew this season would be a work in progress, even if they couldn’t have predicted the control issues that would plague him. From a new country to a new ball to a pitch clock, the changes are numerous. He did not arrive from Japan as polished as his Dodgers teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and even Yamamoto dealt with some early command issues in his adjustment to MLB (though they weren’t as severe as Sasaki’s). Yamamoto, who now looks like an early Cy Young contender, obviously figured things out.

It looks like it will take longer for Sasaki, but it’s worth remembering that he’s only 23 years old. The characteristics of his splitter could make the pitch one of the best offerings in the sport if he can find a way to present it as a strike more often. The development of a third pitch will be crucial, and he is starting to find success with his slider, which was especially effective in his most recent outing. He has found a way to limit damage, as evidenced by his 3.20 ERA, despite the troubling underlying numbers as he adjusts to Major League Baseball. The Dodgers appear content to let him work through his faults at the big-league level, and he’s consistently finding ways to work deeper into starts.

Now, for the red flags: He has allowed multiple walks in every start, which wasn’t an issue for him in NPB. His fastball is not missing bats, and he’s struggling to consistently keep his splitter in the zone. If either of those pitches aren’t on point, he doesn’t have a plethora of backup options in his repertoire, and opponents can sit on his fastball. The control issues, some believe, could be a result of him trying to chase the velocity that he has been unable to find consistently. He tasked teams this winter to try to help him rediscover his triple-digit heat, but he hasn’t thrown a pitch 100 mph since his debut at the Tokyo Dome. The Dodgers are having him dial it back in an effort to focus more on command. If he can find a way to strike his splitter and slider more consistently, the velocity of his fastball might not matter so much; his secondary pitches have yielded just two hits — both singles — this season.

Thosar: We always knew Sasaki would be far from a finished product when he joined the Dodgers, but perhaps his hype (which is still well deserved) made us heighten our expectations for him right out of the jump. In reality, Sasaki has work to do with his arsenal, particularly with his fastball, which comes with velocity concerns and has a 88% contact rate because the location is a bit predictable, so it’s easier to track for opposing hitters. But Sasaki has shown a willingness to change his mechanics, and these are the Dodgers we’re talking about. They’re widely regarded as being the best ballclub in MLB at developing players, so it’s only a matter of time before Sasaki is fine-tuned into the starting pitcher they expected. In the meantime, give the 23-year-old a break. He’s adjusting to a new country, a new team, a new ball, and he’ll be just fine.

The Tigers didn’t seem all that imposing in the 2024 postseason, with an 86-76 record that allowed them to just sneak in. However, since August 11 of last summer, when they sat under .500 at 55-63, they’ve gone 45-21 through Monday night’s games, and sit in first place in the AL Central. Are they one of MLB’s best, or is this just a couple of small sample coincidences coming together?

Kavner: I still hadn’t really bought in after last year’s postseason run, but I’m starting to believe. A big part of that is the resurgence of Spencer Torkelson, who looks primed for a career year for a team that desperately needed more infield pop from somewhere. With Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene and Gleyber Torres — and, eventually, the returns of Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows — there may be enough here for a formidable offense. And after an October of “pitching chaos,” Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe are providing more reasons for optimism in the rotation beyond Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. I don’t think this is a top-five team, but I do think this is a top-10 team and the best club in the AL Central.

Thosar: The Tigers look like the real deal, especially because they’re the only team in the AL Central with a positive run differential. Detroit’s only legitimate threat to win the division is Cleveland, and even then, the way the Tigers are playing right now, I’m expecting them to enjoy another trip to the postseason. We knew Detroit’s rotation would be solid if it stayed healthy, and so far their starting pitchers behind reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal have all been solid. But it’s the uptick in production from the Tigers offense that is making this club one of MLB’s best. The Tigers have a top-10 offense in baseball in terms of wRC+, and if they can sustain that level of dominance on both sides of the ball, then they might just have a deeper playoff run in their bones.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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