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Liverpool are three points away from winning the title, and unless you’re a big believer in Ipswich Town and West Ham combining for one of the most remarkable outcomes in league history, the battle to secure a top-five spot – and the coveted UEFA Champions League invite that comes with it – is one of the most enthralling races left in Europe.
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So, without further adieu, it’s time for your weekly stock report on the five clubs keeping us engaged as the season winds down…
Newcastle United (2/5)
Last week: (1/20)
Newcastle are one of the most unpredictable sides in the league this season. Since the middle of last December, the Magpies have largely been a Champions League-calibre team.
Eddie Howe’s men have done this by being flat-track bullies – beating up on the dregs of the league while taking their lumps from stronger sides. Since 2025, the three sides Newcastle have faced with an expected goal differential (xGD) in the top five – Liverpool, Bournemouth and Manchester City – have beaten them by a combined score of 10-1.
The 4-1 loss to Aston Villa that dented their Champions League qualification odds proves the theory as the Villans have have been the second best team in England since February, per Understat’s expected point totals.
The potentially worrisome part for the Magpies isn’t the loss to Villa; it’s that two of their final five matches include two teams ranking in the top five of xGD: Chelsea and Arsenal.
Luckily for Newcastle, Arsenal have nothing to play for domestically and the Chelsea match is at the cosy confines of St. James Park. Could a lack of motivation and a home fixture change the Magpies outcome against better-performing teams in the league? Clinging to a two-point lead in fifth, and that bit of scheduling fortune may be just enough to keep Newcastle in the driver’s seat for a Champions League spot.
Stock tip: With the Chelsea match feeling like a toss-up, it’s still best to stay away from those odds.
Manchester City (1/33)
Last week: (1/10)
Somehow it seems fitting that it was Matheus Nunes who emerged as the Citizen’s hero during a key point in the season. The fact it came against a Villa side nipping at their heels was an even bigger boost. City’s makeshift right-back slotted home a 94th-minute goal – his first in the league, by the way – to help Pep Guardiola’s side to turn a disappointing 1-1 draw into a massive 2-1 win.
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City now sit third in the table at 61 points with no other competitions to focus on and a bunch of middling sides to face on their run-in. It’s been a disappointing year, but the Citizens are now virtually assured of Champions League football next season.
Stock tip: The time to buy has come – and gone.
Nottingham Forest (¼)
Last week: (1/2)
Just when it looked like Forest were about to slide out of a coveted Champions League spot, the soccer Gods smiled down on them again. The Reds received yet another fortunate result by securing a 2-1 victory over a broken Tottenham side despite getting absolutely peppered with shots on their goal. Forest yielded 2.1 xG while creating just 0.5 of their own and yet, in a reflection of their season, emerged victorious.
As that win boosted them up the table, it also dropped them lower down the xGD rankings. By their underlying metrics, Forest are the 12th-best team in the league this season; yet here they are, favourites for a Champions League spot. What a sport.
Stock tip: This team may keep outrunning their numbers, but it’s not worth investing in them to do so.
Chelsea (1/1)
Last week: (1/1)
This is perhaps the most interesting team in the race right now. Chelsea have to balance a continental competition – the Europa Conference League – with two matches against two clubs against two clubs also eyeing up a top five spot: Newcastle and Forest. On top of that, Cole Palmer’s incredible goal drought – he hasn’t scored since January 14th – is still going…
With 14 goals on 15.8 xG, Palmer’s underperformance should spark hope. The majority of players revert to the mean when it comes to xG, so the Blues’ best player is due for some positive regression. The problem with variance is we never know when it comes. Should Palmer’s shots start finding the back of the net down the stretch of this season, it will have a massive impact on this race. Everton, beware.
Stock tip: Even money for a team that controls their own destiny with a superstar player who is due? Seems like a good spot to buy.
Aston Villa (4/1)
Last week: (7/2)
This season, Villa have used the January transfer window effectively, morphing from a middling side to one of the best in the league. The problem for the Villans isn’t their performance as much as they’re simply running out of matches. Villa should enter every one of their remaining fixtures – home against Fulham and Spurs with away tilts against Bournemouth and Manchester United – as betting favourites. But with just four games left, there is massive pressure to clean the slate.
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Capturing 12 points would put Villa on 69, which should be enough to secure a Champions League spot. But all wins, and no deviations while balancing an FA Cup run is a tall order.
Stock tip: Tempting, but probably a pass.
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