The Minnesota Twins seek their first series sweep of the season when they host the Chicago White Sox at Target Field on Thursday for the finale of their three-game set. Minnesota, which won two of three at Chicago earlier this year, posted 4-2 and 6-3 victories against the White Sox in the first two contests of this series. Two pitchers in search of their first win of 2025 take the mound in the finale as Chris Paddack (0-2, 7.27 ERA) of the Twins opposes rookie Shane Smith (0-1, 2.82) of the White Sox, who have lost nine of their last 10 overall games.
The Twins-White Sox game is one of nine on Thursday’s MLB slate. Elsewhere, Bryan Woo (2-1, 3.12) and the Seattle Mariners face Garrett Crochet (2-1, 1.13) and the host Boston Red Sox in the rubber match of their three-game series; the Los Angeles Angels look to sweep the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates when they start Tyler Anderson (2-0, 2.08) against Carmen Mlodzinski (1-3, 7.41); and Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 0.87) and the Tampa Bay Rays visit Corbin Burnes (0-1, 4.64) and the Arizona Diamondbacks in the rubber game of their three-game set.
For the Minnesota-Chicago matchup, sportsbooks have set Paddack’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5, while Smith’s is 4.5. Of the two, Smith’s props rate highly on the SportsLine Projection Model’s five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Smith Over 4.5 strikeouts rates as a 4, while Paddack Under 5.5 rates as a 3.5.
In addition to Smith’s, there is one pitcher strikeout prop for Thursday that the model has rated at 5 stars and another rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Shane Smith Over 4.5 strikeouts (+111) vs. Twins (1:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
Smith has gone Over this number just once in his first four major league starts, striking out six batters over six innings against the Guardians in his second outing. The 25-year-old right-hander recorded three strikeouts in each of his other three turns, including the last two versus the Red Sox. But Minnesota batters whiffed seven times in each of their last four contests, including the first two of this series, so Smith has a solid chance to eclipse this number and set a new career high.
Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (-112) vs. Mariners (1:35 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
Crochet is tied for 11th in the major leagues with 35 strikeouts and is facing a Seattle club that has fanned 220 times, which is the eighth-most in baseball. The 25-year-old southpaw racked up the strikeouts in two starts against the Mariners last season, whiffing 16 batters across 10 innings. However, Crochet has gone Over this number only twice in five outings this year and finished with seven strikeouts over six frames versus the White Sox last Saturday.
Cole Ragans Under 8.5 strikeouts (-104) vs. Rockies (2:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.8 strikeouts
Ragans ranks fifth in the major leagues and second in the American League with 42 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings this season. The Rockies are fanning at a high rate, as they are tied for second in the majors and lead the National League with 241 strikeouts. Ragans struck out only three batters in his season debut against the Cleveland Guardians before reaching double digits in each of his next three turns. But the 27-year-old left-hander finished Under this number versus the Detroit Tigers, who are fourth in the majors in strikeouts (228), in his last outing, and Colorado whiffed just seven times in the series opener.
This news was originally published on this post .
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