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Day 2 of the NFL Draft has arrived, and Shedeur Sanders is still on the board. That’s undoubtedly the biggest surprise so far in NFL Draft odds.
And not necessarily a welcome one for some bookmakers.
“We were small losers on the Sanders side. The sharps win again,” Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson said.
Oddsmakers for sportsbooks in Vegas and across the country chimed in on how NFL Draft prop bets fared in Thursday night’s first round.
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Shedeur Slides
A month ago, Sanders was anticipated to be a top-five pick, with an Over/Under on draft position of 3.5. And even a week ago, the Colorado quarterback’s Over/Under at practically every sportsbook was 8.5, with the expectation that he’d go to the New Orleans Saints at No. 9.
But the ground started shifting Monday into Tuesday, and by Wednesday afternoon, Sanders’ Over/Under plunged to 21.5 in NFL Draft odds at multiple sportsbooks. As it turned out, that wasn’t far enough.
“As we have seen the past couple weeks, Shedeur’s draft stock was not trending in a positive direction,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “It feels as if in this draft class, NFL teams thought there was more value in the trenches.”
Seventeen first-round picks were either offensive or defensive linemen or edge rushers. And only two quarterbacks were drafted: Cam Ward at No. 1 by the Tennessee Titans, as expected, and Jaxson Dart at No. 25 by the New York Giants, which was unexpected.
Many thought that, in the worst-case scenario, Sanders would go No. 21 to Pittsburgh. But the Steelers — to Feazel’s point — opted for Oregon defensive tackle Derrick Harmon.
What’s Next?
Sanders was easily the most talked-about player in NFL Draft odds for Round 1. That’ll be the case for tonight’s second and third rounds, until the QB comes off the board.
Which could be in a hurry. DraftKings Sportsbook revised its Draft prop bet of which team will land Sanders, with the Cleveland Browns now the -250 favorites. The Browns hold the second and fourth picks of the second round, Nos. 33 and 36 overall.
At +300, the Las Vegas Raiders follow the Browns as a possible Sanders landing spot. Then it’s the Saints at +600, and the Steelers, New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams at +1200.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Sanders the -125 favorite to be the first pick of the second round.
Other Surprises
Travis Hunter, Sanders’ teammate at Colorado, was widely and accurately projected to go No. 2 overall Thursday night. But the expectation was that the two-way star would be heading to Cleveland.
However, the Browns traded the No. 2 pick for Jacksonville’s No. 5 pick. The Jaguars then made Hunter the No. 2 pick, which had a ripple effect.
“The Browns’ trade was obviously big, as that took Ashton Jeanty out of contention for No. 5, which was a very popular bet,” Feazel said.
Indeed, by Wednesday and certainly throughout the day Thursday, it appeared Boise State running back Jeanty would go fifth overall, rather than the originally anticipated sixth. The only question was whether Jeanty would be going to Jacksonville or Chicago, with rumblings Thursday that the Bears might trade up from No. 10 to get Jeanty.
But Cleveland had no interest in a running back at No. 5, going with Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham. Then the Las Vegas Raiders — who, until this week, were favored to select Jeanty — ended up taking the running back at No. 6.
Feazel noted a couple more first-round surprises.
“Colston Loveland was a shock to be the first tight end off the board,” he said of the Michigan standout going No. 10 to the Bears, ahead of Penn State’s Tyler Warren, who was a big favorite to be the first tight end selected.
“Also, Tetairoa McMillan to the Panthers was a pick that steamed late.”
Arizona’s McMillan was favored over Texas’ Matthew Golden to be the first wideout off the board. One of those two was expected to go to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 12. Instead, Carolina took McMillan at No. 8, and Golden was actually the third receiver drafted, at No. 23 by the Green Bay Packers.
Ohio State wideout Emeka Egbuka went 18th to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the Cowboys didn’t draft a wideout, instead opting for Alabama offensive guard Tyler Booker with the No. 12 pick.
Bettors Beat Bookies
As Benson alluded to above, bettors won the first round of NFL Draft odds at Circa Sports.
“We were a small loser,” he said. “Mason Graham Under 5.5 and Jahdae Barron Over 17.5 cost us a pretty penny. We ran poorly, in my opinion.”
Graham, as noted above, went to Cleveland at No. 5, while Barron — a cornerback out of Texas — went to the Denver Broncos with the 20th pick.
Caesars Sports’ Feazel echoed Benson’s sentiment.
“After the first round, it appears the customers had a small win, even with the shakeup from the Browns’ trade,” Feazel said.
Fast-Forward
NFL Draft odds for Days 2 and 3 are much more limited and generate far less interest. Feazel is already looking ahead to how the top rookies fare in their first season.
“We look forward to pricing up the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year props in the next few days. And look out for a Travis Hunter special, for him to win both awards,” Feazel said.
Caesars already has NFL Rookie of the Year odds posted. On offense, Ward and Jeanty are +300 co-favorites, followed by Hunter at +650. On defense, Abdul Carter is the +250 favorite, followed by Jalon Walker at +600, Graham at +800, and Mykel Williams and Hunter at +1000.
Carter, an edge rusher out of Penn State, was drafted third overall by the New York Giants, as oddsmakers expected. Georgia linebacker Walker went 15th to the Atlanta Falcons, and Georgia edge rusher Williams went 11th to the San Francisco 49ers.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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