

Even though it’s very early into the 2025 fantasy baseball season, many of you might be looking at a roster that only partially resembles the team you drafted. Since roster churn is the name of the game, I’m running it back with your favorite speculator piece with my patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners … today.
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Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure player statistics regarding control, batted ball quality and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them together to identify some cheap gems to grab before the squares figure it out next week. At the bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
Access The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.
Hitters
When it comes to hitting, opportunity may be king, but we still need production, which comes from underlying skills. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. The list below utilizes contact frequency and quality, paired with advanced statistics to identify underlying hitting skills.
Identifying available underlying hitting skills
Player
|
Team
|
Pos
|
PA
|
ZC%
|
HH%
|
xwOBA
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MIA |
1B |
45 |
92.7% |
54.3% |
0.447 |
|
PIT |
1B |
43 |
87.0% |
48.3% |
0.422 |
|
SEA |
2B/3B |
34 |
90.3% |
57.1% |
0.416 |
|
CIN |
OF |
37 |
90.9% |
42.9% |
0.416 |
|
SFG |
OF |
44 |
88.4% |
48.3% |
0.392 |
|
LAA |
OF |
36 |
86.4% |
44.4% |
0.381 |
|
SDP |
1B/OF |
40 |
93.9% |
61.5% |
0.365 |
|
PIT |
UT |
39 |
87.5% |
42.3% |
0.359 |
|
NYM |
2B |
36 |
97.1% |
42.3% |
0.347 |
|
PHI |
OF |
50 |
92.8% |
60.0% |
0.347 |
|
TBR |
OF |
43 |
96.0% |
48.6% |
0.342 |
|
ATH |
OF |
42 |
87.0% |
51.6% |
0.340 |
Hitters in this table have +86% zone-contact, +43% hard-hit, a +.345 expected weighted on-base average and at least 35 plate appearances in the past 14 days.
Catchers generally don’t warrant top billing, but this one could make a difference. Yankees fans have heard about catching prospect Agustín Ramírez on broadcasts for years at this point (and he’s only 23!). And no, I’m not going to cite his .833 BA through eight plate appearances — though it’s worth noting he boasts a 50% hard hit rate and is yet to strike out. More important is the potential five-category contribution at a thin position. This feels like prime J.T. Realmuto for fantasy purposes. Ramírez’s MiLB 600 PA pace from 2023 to present speaks for itself — .268 BA/103 Runs/108 RBI/29 HR/24 SB. I guess I promised not to cite fewer than 10 PAs, but he did already steal a bag — that stuff matters!
I’ve always had a soft spot in my fantasy heart for former first-round pick Gavin Lux. Finally, all the “P’s” have come together. Prospect pedigree meets playing time plus production, and I’ve never been more hopeful the prophecy is about to be fulfilled. Garnering regular plate appearances around the diamond (2B, 3B, OF, DH), Lux is getting every chance to maximize output in Great American “Small” Park, one of MLB’s optimal hitting environments. Cleaning up for a Reds offense on the upswing, Lux is at a career-high 134 wRC+ with a decent 5×5 line to start the year — .316 BA/10 Runs/11 RBI/1 HR/1 SB. That includes some early struggles out of the box, but he’s been excellent the past two weeks, featuring some seriously encouraging underpinning stats worth adding in all formats (1.117 OPS, 46.2% Hard Hit, 11.5% Barrel, .387 xwOBA).
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Finally getting off the post-hype prospect express train, my next favorite add is coming out of relative obscurity. The 392nd overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, Miami’s 27-year-old right-handed first baseman Eric Wagaman forced his way from ancillary player right into the heart of the Marlins’ every-day order. Already working on a pretty strong 5×5 fantasy season — .274 BA/12 Runs/7 RBI/3 HR/1 SB — Wagaman has really taken off since earning the full-time role. Since April 11, he’s posted a .966 OPS and 164 wRC+, all while cutting down on his strikeouts and even stealing a base. Still more of a deep league add than anything, if he continues this stretch of success, Wagaman will be headlining mainstream waiver articles before you know it.
Top hitter waiver wire adds, by position
Catcher
- Agustín Ramírez (MIA): 10+ teams
- Hunter Goodman (COL): 10/12 teams
- Dillon Dingler (DET): 12+ teams
- Carson Kelly (CHC): 12/15 teams
- Bo Naylor, (CLE): 15+ teams
- Edgar Quero (CHW): 15+ teams
- Carlos Narvaez (BOS): AL only
- Jose Trevino (CIN): NL only
First Base
- Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH) 10+ teams
- Eric Wagaman (MIA): 10/12 teams
- Matt Mervis (MIA): 12+ teams
- Andrew Vaughn (CHW): 12/15 teams
- Ty France (MIN): 12/15 teams
- Kyle Manzardo (CLE): 15+ teams
- Enmanuel Valdez (PIT): NL only
- Jeimer Candelario (CIN): NL only
- Rowdy Tellez (SEA): AL only
- Curtis Mead (TB): AL only
Second Base
- Gavin Lux (CIN): 10+ teams
- Caleb Durbin (MIL) 10+ teams
- Luke Keaschall: 10/12 teams ***
- Dylan Moore (SEA): 10/12 teams
- Max Muncy (ATH): 12+ teams
- Nolan Gorman (STL): 12/15 teams
- Kyle Farmer (COL): 15+ teams
- Luisangel Acuña (NYM): 15+ teams
- David Hamilton (BOS): AL only
- Luis Urías (ATH): AL only
- Tim Tawa (ARI): NL only
- Adael Amador (COL): NL only
Shortstop
- Tyler Fitzgerald (SF): 10+ teams ***
- Jacob Wilson (ATH): 12+ teams
- Gabriel Arias (CLE): 12/15 teams
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT): 12/15 teams
- Trey Sweeney (DET): 15+ teams ***
- Javier Báez (DET) AL only
- Taylor Walls (TB): AL only
- Edmundo Sosa (PHI): NL only
- Nick Allen (ATL): NL only
Third Base
- Noelvi Marte (CIN): 10+ teams
- Jorge Polanco (SEA): 10/12 teams
- Connor Norby (MIA): 10/12 teams
- Oswaldo Cabrera (NYY) 12+ teams
- Joey Ortiz (MIL): 12/15 teams
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT): 15+ teams
- Brooks Lee (MIN): 15+ teams
- Ramón Urías (BAL): AL only
- Lenyn Sosa (CHW): AL only
- Santiago Espinal (CIN): NL only
- Graham Pauley (MIA): NL only
Outfield, 10/12 teams
- Pavin Smith (ARI)
- Heston Kjerstad (BAL)
- Kameron Misner (TB)
- Mickey Moniak (COL) ^^^
Outfield, 12/15 teams
- Jake Fraley (CIN) ^^^
- Alek Thomas (ARI)
- Kyle Stowers (MIA)
- Gavin Sheets (SD)
- Mike Yastrzemski (SF)
- Jordan Walker (STL)
Outfield 15+ teams only
- Drew Waters (KC) ^^^
- Jo Adell (LAA)
- Alex Verdugo (ATL)
- Jonathan India (KC)
- Zach McKinstry (DET)
- Andrew Benintendi (CHW)
- Ryan O’Hearn (BAL)
- Jesús Sánchez (MIA)
- Max Kepler (PHI)
- Trent Grisham (NYY)
- Tyrone Taylor (NYM)
- Alan Roden (TOR)
- Trevor Larnach (MIN)
- JJ Bleday (ATH)
- Oscar Gonzalez (SD)
- Harrison Bader (MIN)
- Jake Meyers (HOU) ***
- Brooks Baldwin (CHW)
- DaShawn Keirsey Jr. (MIN)
- Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
- Jhonkensy Noel (CLE): AL only
- Dustin Harris (TEX): AL only
- Sean Bouchard (COL): NL only
- Luis Matos (SF): NL only
*** = Prioritize for speed
^^^ = Riser
Graduating class
Players from previous articles no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) who should be rostered first
- Zach Neto (SS, LAA)
- Jonathan Aranda (1B, TB)
- Austin Hays (OF, CIN)
- Sal Frelick (OF, MIL)
- Geraldo Perdomo (ARI)
- Ben Rice (1B, NYY)
- Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SF)
Hitter stash candidates
- Roman Anthony (OF, BOS)
- Marcelo Mayer (SS, BOS)
- Jordan Lawlar (SS, ARI)
- Will Wilson (CLE, 3B)
- Carson McCusker (OF, MIN)
Hitter drop candidates
- Chase Meidroth (SS, CHW)
- Colt Keith (2B, DET)
- Zac Veen (OF, COL)
- Matt Shaw (3B, CHC)
- Leody Taveras (OF, TEX)
Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are suppressing runs by keeping runners off base and striking out batters. Though simply showing up on this list so early may be noise, there’s an argument this combination of skills signals an immediate call to action.
Identifying available underlying pitching skills
Player
|
Team
|
IP
|
SIERA
|
WHIP
|
K-BB%
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOU |
11.0 |
2.33 |
1.09 |
28.9% |
|
BOS |
6.0 |
2.91 |
0.50 |
26.1% |
|
CHC |
8.1 |
2.75 |
1.20 |
25.0% |
|
WSN |
19.1 |
2.79 |
0.72 |
24.7% |
|
MIN |
10.0 |
3.10 |
0.80 |
20.5% |
|
MIN |
9.0 |
3.27 |
1.11 |
21.1% |
|
MIL |
6.0 |
1.70 |
0.67 |
38.1% |
Pitchers in this table have a ≤3.50 skills independent earned run average, ≤1.20 WHIP, +18.0% strikeout minus walk rate, with a minimum of six innings pitched in the past 14 days.
I can remember following Andrew Abbott at the University of Virginia and dreaming on his ceiling when he first transitioned to a starter role. Coming into 2025, his MLB pitching track record wasn’t terrible (3.78 ERA), but was also not anything to write home about (1.31 WHIP, 13.2% K-BB). After some injuries in the past, finally getting an offseason spent preparing and improving rather than rehabbing could be just what the doctor ordered. The 25-year-old southpaw looks incredible right now, with two dominant starts on the ledger already — combined 11 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 16 K. So what happened? Maybe sometimes it’s as easy as throwing your best pitch more. Abbott’s been throttling four-seam usage to righties in favor of his best pitch — a devastating changeup, combining 29.6″ of drop with 15″ of arm-side break. The tweaks seemingly worked wonders across his entire arsenal, with three separate pitches (FF, CH, CU) generating whiffs at a better than 30% clip.
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Top waiver wire pitcher adds
Finding Mr. Right: Starters who could stick all year
- Grant Holmes (ATL)
- Landen Roupp (SF)
- Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
- Andrew Abbott (CIN) ^^^
- Matthew Liberatore (STL)
- José Soriano (LAA)
- Andrew Heaney (PIT)
- David Peterson (NYM)
- Shane Smith (CHW)
- Mitchell Parker (WAS)
Team Streamers: Hold and deploy from the bench
- Luis L. Ortiz (CLE)
- Ben Brown (CHC)
- Brandon Young (BAL)
- Will Warren (NYY)
- Jake Irvin (WAS)
- Jose Quintana (MIL)
- Andre Pallante (STL)
- J.T. Ginn (ATH)
- Mitch Keller (PIT)
- Hunter Dobbins (BOS)
- Nick Martinez (CIN)
- Jordan Hicks (SF)
One-and-done: Pitch-and-ditch desperation plays
- Colin Rea (CHC)
- Cade Povich (BAL)
- Edward Cabrera (MIA)
- Osvaldo Bido (ATH)
- Griffin Canning (NYM)
- JP Sears (ATH)
- Ryan Gusto (HOU)
- Logan T. Allen (CLE)
- Kyle Hart (SD)
- Jack Kochanowicz (LAA)
- Taijuan Walker (PHI)
- Sean Burke (CHW)
- Zack Littell (TB)
^^^ = Riser
Pitcher stash candidates
- Jack Leiter (TEX)
- Zebby Matthews (MIN)
- Bubba Chandler (PIT)
- Logan Henderson (MIL)
- David Festa (MIN)
- Lucas Giolito (BOS)
- Hayden Birdsong (SF)
- Kyle Gibson (BAL)
- Joe Boyle (TB)
Pitcher drop candidates
- Justin Steele (SP, CHC)
- AJ Smith-Shawver (SP, ATL)
- Richard Fitts (SP, BOS)
Relievers
- Will Vest (DET)
- Dennis Santana (PIT)
- José Alvarado (PHI)
- Seth Halvorsen (COL)
- Emilio Pagán (CIN)
- Justin Slaten (BOS)
- Jesus Tinoco (MIA)
- Porter Hodge (CHC)
- Camilo Doval (SF)
- Alexis Diaz, (CIN)
- Abner Uribe (MIL)
- Jordan Leasure (CHW)
- Fernando Cruz (NYY)
- David Bednar (PIT)
Graduating class
Players from previous articles no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) who should be rostered first
- Max Meyer (MIA)
- Tyler Mahle (TEX)
- Kris Bubic (KC)
- Matthew Boyd (CHC)
- Jackson Jobe (DET)
Two-Start Pitchers Next Week:
PLAYER | TEAM | OPP. | OPP. SP | OPP. | OPP. SP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Heaney |
PIT |
CHC |
Shota Imanaga |
SD |
Randy Vasquez |
Chase Dollander |
COL |
ATL |
Bryce Elder |
@ SF |
Logan Webb |
Nick Martinez |
CIN |
STL |
Andre Pallante |
WAS |
Trevor Williams |
Griffin Canning |
NYM |
@ WAS |
Trevor Williams |
@ STL |
Andre Pallante |
Luis Ortiz |
CLE |
MIN |
Chris Paddack |
@ TOR |
Chris Bassitt |
Will Warren |
NYY |
@ BAL |
Tomoyuki Sugano |
TB |
Taj Bradley |
Kumar Rocker |
TEX |
ATH |
JP Sears |
SEA |
Luis Castillo |
Tomoyuki Sugano |
BAL |
NYY |
Will Warren |
KC |
Kris Bubic |
Edward Cabrera |
MIA |
@ LAD |
Dustin May |
ATH |
J.T. Ginn |
J.T. Ginn |
ATH |
@ TEX |
Jacob deGrom |
@ MIA |
Edward Cabrera |
Cade Povich |
BAL |
NYY |
Carlos Rodon |
KC |
Michael Lorenzen |
Andre Pallante |
STL |
@ CIN |
Nick Martinez |
NYM |
Griffin Canning |
Michael Lorenzen |
KC |
@ TB |
Taj Bradley |
@ BAL |
Cade Povich |
JP Sears |
ATH |
@ TEX |
Kumar Rocker |
@ MIA |
Max Meyer |
Chris Paddack |
MIN |
@ CLE |
Luis Ortiz |
@ BOS |
Sean Newcomb |
Jack Kochanowicz |
LAA |
@ SEA |
Emerson Hancock |
DET |
Reese Olson |
Trevor Williams |
WAS |
NYM |
Griffin Canning |
@ CIN |
Nick Martinez |
Sean Newcomb |
BOS |
TOR |
Chris Bassitt SP |
MIN |
Chris Paddack |
German Marquez |
COL |
ATL |
TBD |
@ SF |
Jordan Hicks |
Miles Mikolas |
STL |
@ CIN |
Brady Singer |
NYM |
David Peterson |
(Top photo of Agustín Ramírez: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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