“The longer teams stay in the Premier League, the better they get,” said Ruud van Nistelrooy after his Leicester City side became the first of the 33-year Premier League era to lose eight games in a row without scoring a single goal.
“So if now, for a couple of seasons, the same 17 teams (remain), they are all going to invest massive amounts of money and get better on top of how good they are. So it appears, then, that the gap will only get bigger.”
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For a second straight season, all three of last year’s promoted sides will soon (barring a miracle) be relegated straight to the Championship.
Southampton went down two weekends ago. Van Nistelrooy-managed Leicester followed them through the trapdoor on Sunday. Ipswich Town will meet the same fate unless they win all five of their remaining games, West Ham United lose all of their five, and a goal difference swing of 20 occurs in the process.
Making the jump from the second tier of English football to the elite is rarely easy. In all but four of the 32 completed seasons since the Premier League’s foundation, at least one promoted club has been relegated.
But this will be the second season running that all three have failed to survive. Before 2023-24, Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace going straight back down in 1997-98 was the only example of that happening in the Premier League era. Once in 32 years, followed by twice in two suggests something profound has changed.
Last season, Sheffield United — having conceded a Premier League record 101 goals — Burnley and Luton Town were relegated with just 16, 24 and 26 points.
This season, the doomed teams’ totals are even more miserly. Southampton are currently level with Derby County’s record low of 11 points from 2007-08, Leicester are on 18 and Ipswich have 21. Having played a combined 99 league games, they have won just 10 times and scored only 84 goals — an average of 0.8 per match.
Southampton have been relegated (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
The perception is building that the Premier League has become so fortified that the best most Championship teams can hope for is a single season at the top table of the domestic game. That building a team to win the second-tier title is no longer enough. To focus on promotion alone, with no thought for what comes next, is to almost guarantee immediate relegation the following season, such is the strength across the board among the domestic elite nowadays.
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Which brings us to Burnley, who have immediately bounced back from their relegation, sealing automatic promotion on Monday, having conceded just 15 goals in their first 44 games of the 46-match campaign.
That is not something that has occurred by chance.
Burnley are a club who observed and then experienced the growing chasm between the two divisions and have reverse-engineered a squad and style of play they hope will prove as compatible with delivering survival in the top tier next season as it has dominance one division below this time.
Whether it will work remains to be seen, but we will surely see a different approach from Burnley from what followed their previous promotion two years ago.
Vincent Kompany’s side rebounded from relegation in 2022 by winning the Championship title with 101 points and 87 goals scored, losing just three times. They played an expansive style of possession-focused football. That open type of game did not translate to the Premier League, however, as they lost 11 of their first 13 matches the next season, scoring 10 goals while conceding 32.
It was a brutal lesson, but one the Lancashire club have swallowed.
Burnley changed priorities and altered their identity, deciding that to go up playing swashbuckling football was not going to be replicable, or more pivotally, successful, in the current Premier League era.
Instead, they hope their defensive base will allow them to compete next season. It may not have been as fun as Kompany’s league-winning season, successor Scott Parker’s 2024-25 version have scored 61 times in the 44 matches so far and won 15 times by a single-goal margin, but the strategy was to double down on assembling a solid defensive framework that could be bulked up and finessed in the event they went up.
Summer recruits Maxime Esteve and Lucas Pires have formed one half of a central defensive partnership that is now 180 minutes away from halving the record for fewest conceded by a team in a Championship season — the previous best is 30, by Preston in 2005-06 and Watford four years ago.
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Burnley have not conceded more than one goal in any game and have kept 29 clean sheets, putting them level with Gillingham’s 1995-96 tally in the fourth tier and just one short of the record for the top four divisions set by Port Vale in 1953-54’s third tier. They have two games to either tie or break that 71-year milestone.
Parker has now overseen a third Premier League promotion with a third different club in the space of five years, after previously taking Fulham and Bournemouth up.
He then suffered first-season relegation with Fulham in 2020-21 and said that, after four straight seasons of yo-yoing between the Premier League and Championship, the west London club had to “try and get off the rollercoaster”. When Bournemouth were promoted under him in 2022, a 9-0 loss to Liverpool at Anfield saw him sacked 25 days into the following season — the earliest firing in Premier League history.
Getting up is one thing, but staying there is quite another, especially with the gulf between the finances and quality of the two divisions these days.
The Premier League’s mammoth TV rights deals have created this continental drift, but the Championship’s reality is one shared by all other major European football leagues.
In November 2021, the Premier League signed a six-year rights deal with U.S. broadcaster NBC worth £2billion ($2.7bn at the current exchange rate), a 1,000 per cent increase on its initial investment in 2012. The Premier League’s overseas rights are now worth more than their own domestic market. Yet, next season, a record four-year domestic TV deal will kick in, taking the pot to £6.7bn, more than double what it was in 2015, when the Premier League truly pulled away from the pack.
In 1993, the Premier League’s central income was £45million compared to the EFL’s £37million, but by 2023 the Premier League had exploded to £3.5billion, while the EFL stood at £200m.
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Last season, even the club finishing bottom of the Premier League, Sheffield United, collected £109.7million from TV revenues, equal-share income and merit payments. Championship clubs not in receipt of parachute payments (a series of annually decreasing sums paid to relegated teams) earned around a tenth of that.
The most recent publicly available figures are for the 2023-24 season, which show that clubs received £5.2m from the Premier League in solidarity payments and another £4m from the EFL’s central funds — £9.2m in total. The EFL’s new domestic deal with Sky Sports this season should add another £2m a season for each club, while additional international rights deals should boost the coffers by another £1.2million, but £12million is still miles off 20th place in the Premier League.
Promoted Leeds have benefited from a second year of parachute payments (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
This is the cliff edge that teams must navigate if relegated.
Parachute payments were introduced with the inception of the Premier League in 1992-93, as insurance payments to help absorb the shock of dropping out of the Premier League and avoid potential financial collapse.
Their calculation has changed over the years, but they currently comprise a percentage of the equal share of broadcast revenue paid to each top-flight club — 55 per cent in year one, 45 per cent in year two and 20 per cent in year three, the latter payable only to teams who spend more than one year in the Premier League — which means Leicester and Southampton will both receive around £47.2million next season and another £39.1m in 2026-27. Both clubs have been relegated, won promotion and been relegated again since 2022, but will likely start as favourites to come up again next season.
The EFL (English Football League), which runs the three divisions below the Premier League, believes these payments — which rose from a total of £60million to £233m between 2010-11 to 2020-21, an almost four-fold increase in a period in which player wages only doubled — have distorted the competitive nature of the Championship and are creating a two-tier second division. It also feels they drive reckless behaviour, with the average wages-to-turnover ratio of Championship clubs in 2022-23 standing at 104 per cent.
When introduced, parachute payments originally only lasted two years but in 2010-11 that was stretched to four and in 2015-16 it was reduced to three — unless clubs are relegated in their first season up, in which case it is once again only two payments. In the nine seasons since that most recent change, 15 of 27 relegated teams have won promotion back to the Premier League within that window. If Sheffield United go up via this season’s play-offs, it will be 16, meaning 59 per cent of relegated teams boomerang back to the top flight.
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There is a further kick in the teeth to other Championship clubs hoping to make it to the promised land.
The parachute payments of £39m and £17m to Burnley and Leeds respectively for next season have become redundant because they’ve now won promotion but rather than being shared among the 24 Championship clubs for the 2025-26 campaign, the money goes back into the Premier League pot, further entrenching the financial gap.
The Premier League points out that it redistributes more generously than any other major league, but before its creation in 1992, the top tier of English football took 50 per cent of the professional pyramid’s revenue, the second tier 25 per cent and the other two leagues divided the remaining quarter between them. It now shares just 16 per cent of its revenue.
In 2022-23, the 20 members of the Premier League and five parachute clubs received 92 per cent of the £3billion in central revenues, while the other 67 professional clubs on the English league pyramid got just eight per cent between them.
The UK government’s Football Governance Bill, which proposes the introduction of an independent regulator for the sport, is making its way through the House of Commons, and reserves a backstop power to intervene in the distribution of broadcast revenue where necessary.
In late 2023, the Premier League proposed ‘a new deal for football’ which would see 14.75 per cent of its media rights income shared as solidarity payments plus a further 4.56 per cent in parachute payments, but the EFL wants parachute payments scrapped and for 25 per cent of the money to be shared in outright solidarity payments.
More than half (60 per cent) of the parachute payments made to clubs in the first season following relegation were used to fund wage spend rather than to provide a bridge to allow time for the clubs to adjust their wage spend according to their revenue in the Championship, i.e. as an abuse of the intended purpose of the system, with abuse of more than 60 per cent in nine of the first season. However, the percentage of abuse reduced significantly (to 28 per cent) for clubs in the second season.
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An independent study by the University of London’s Birkbeck Sport Business Centre found 60 per cent of parachute payments made to clubs in the first season were used to fund wage spend rather than adjust their playing budget in accordance to their new revenue in the Championship. In assessing how much, and how long, the payments should be paid they concluded they should be reduced to 25 per cent and only last for two years with the rest added to the solidarity pot.
Change could be on the horizon, but the Premier League is a major UK export and one of the country’s best expressions of soft power. It is unlikely any government will want to dilute that.
Burnley’s squad and tactical plan are an example of how the gap between the top two divisions is presenting clubs with philosophical dilemmas both on the way up to and the way down from the Premier League.
Clubs are having to plan how they scale up to compete against the entrenched wealth which has funded stable, superior squads, while also plotting an escape plan to soften the impact if immediate relegation is the outcome.
The budgets of Premier League clubs have passed a critical threshold. Newly-promoted Premier League teams can compete financially for players who could get Champions League football in Spain, Germany, Italy or France on the same salaries, but there is still a gap and the threat of relegation makes it a harder sell.
“We knew going into that summer our profile needed to change. What the profile was in the Championship was not going to be this in the Premier League,” said former Burnley assistant Craig Bellamy on Sky Sports’ Monday Night Football.
“But what the players we were looking at were expecting financially… a lot of them don’t want to get involved in wage cuts if they get relegated, or don’t want to be in that fight. I found the profile of players we were looking for were just out of our reach.”
There are different strategies that can be adopted when planning survival in the Premier League.
The first is to continue to play possession-based football and hope a manager’s vision is enough for you to punch above your weight, even if your individual players are inferior to those you’ll be facing.
Another is ruthlessly transforming your squad overnight by investing heavily, and continuing to do so in the coming years. Nottingham Forest did this in the summer of 2022, signing 30 players at a cost of £170million. Bournemouth, too, have invested around £290m gross in players over the past three seasons. Doing it this way risks financial instability if it does not work, but both clubs are fighting for European qualification this season, even if Forest had to accept a points deduction a year ago as punishment for breaching profitability and sustainability rules (PSR).
Leeds, whose owners at 49ers Enterprises, the investment arm of the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers, are supporting one of the Championship’s most expensive wage bills, have vowed to keep investing as much as the regulations permit them to.
Forest have spent heavily since promotion and are now pushing for Europe (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
The other option is to simply forget about entertainment value. Just focus on being difficult to beat and try to find gains wherever you can to bank enough points from the 38 matches to finish ahead of three other teams.
A less palliative outlook, particularly for a club’s supporters, is viewing one promotion as a dress rehearsal for the next one. Accept the likelihood of immediate relegation and live within your means, even if that means 11 months of suffering. Take the huge injection of TV money from your first year, upgrade the squad, then collect the parachute payments on the way back down, take the learnings from that initial season and try to consolidate second time around.
The danger is that you become Norwich City between 2018 and 2022 (promotion-relegation-promotion-relegation), caught in this no man’s land of being too good for the Championship but not good enough for the Premier League.
After those first two years, Norwich changed their approach, similarly to how Burnley have done. They became less expansive and placed greater emphasis on being more solid defensively when back in the Championship (18 fewer goals scored in winning the 2021-22 title than when doing so two years earlier, but 21 fewer conceded) but their second bite at the Premier League cherry ended with them finishing bottom again, as in 2019-20, with only one more point (22 to 21) than the previous time.
There are examples of clubs who have bucked the trend and excelled after Premier League promotion in recent years, most notably Leeds in 2020-21 under Marcelo Bielsa, whose relentless, albeit hectic, full-pitch pressing style forced opponents into an open, often alien type of game. Twelve months earlier, Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United team had a distinct identity too, employing a back three but giving licence to Chris Basham and Jack O’Connell to overlap from centre-back. Both teams finished ninth in their first season up.
Ian Holloway’s 2010-11 Blackpool team and Brendan Rodgers’ Swansea City of 2011-12, seizing the zeitgeist of Barcelona’s tiki-taka era, were the first to adopt such strong possession philosophies without investing heavily in signings. Only seven teams among the other 19 scored more than Blackpool’s 55 goals that season but they were relegated by a single point. Swansea had the third-highest possession percentage in their Premier League debut year and fared better than Blackpool, finishing 11th (and getting Rodgers the Liverpool job that summer), but the Premier League is a different beast more than a decade on, as the intensity and pressing organisation have increased exponentially.
Burnley suffered 337 high turnovers in 2023-24, third-most of any Premier League club in the past two seasons. The other five promoted-now-relegated teams were all in the top half of this metric too, and it is the same for most shots on goal conceded from those situations. Luton Town and Sheffield United conceded 10 goals from high turnovers in that season and Burnley eight, with Southampton currently on nine in this one. That is a lot of self-inflicted pain.
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It is difficult for promotion-winning managers to prove themselves worthy of Premier League jobs under these circumstances, unless they can take a team up and then stay up, as Marco Silva and Thomas Frank have done with Fulham and Brentford. It feels like coaches are now viewing their one season in the Premier League as a shop window to display that they are capable of going on to deliver a progressive style at a bigger club who have greater resources.
There is a clear correlation between a solid defence and survival in your first season.
Since the Premier League switched to a 38-game format for the 1995-96 season, only one of the top 17 promoted teams in terms of fewest goals conceded — Sunderland in 1996-97 — have been relegated. The 11 promoted sides with the most clean sheets (led by Fulham’s 15 in 2001-02) all stayed up. Six of those stuck around among the domestic elite for five or more seasons.
What measurable aspects of performance are the biggest predictors of first-year survival that Leeds, Burnley and whoever comes out of the play-offs can look to as a target, then?
Bielsa’s Leeds finished ninth after promotion (Lynne Cameron – Pool/Getty Images)
The average points total of the club finishing 17th, one place clear of the drop, over the past five years has been 36, but digging beneath that, staying below that 60-goals-against mark gives you an 81 per cent chance of survival, historically. Of the 42 promoted teams to have conceded fewer than that, only seven went back down: Sunderland 1996-97, Burnley 2014-15, Middlesbrough 2016-17 and Fulham 2020-21 (all 53), Sheffield United 2006-07 (55), Charlton Athletic 1998-99 (56) and Watford 2006-07 (59).
Teams must carry enough threat going forward to win enough games, though. Just four teams from 32 have been relegated when scoring 43 goals or more in their first season post-promotion: Blackpool 2010-11 (55), Luton 2023-24 (52), Leicester 2003-04 (48) and Birmingham City 2007-08 (46).
Whether Burnley can find that firepower in the summer transfer market will be a test of their recruitment skills, but they have perhaps done the defensive part already.
Can their alternative take on preparing for life in the Premier League help them become the first promoted club to survive in three seasons?
(Top photos: Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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