This is a nauseating but exciting time for making pitching decisions. There’s still some opportunity to take advantage of rash decisions made on small samples, and yet there are some good pitchers who still won’t get right throughout the rest of the season, too. You want to keep an eye on the good things that led you to pick that pitcher less than a month ago, but you can’t tolerate many more blow-ups either. It’s time to make moves.
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In terms of the tools we have, the three most powerful are rest-of-season projections. stuff models and strikeout-minus-walk rates. Of course, the first tool now includes the rest thanks to Jordan Rosenblum’s OOPSY projections at FanGraphs (represented here by ppERA, ppK% and ppB%), but keeping an eye on stuff, strikeouts and walks can maybe help you move as fast as possible.
Consider the following pitchers with bad results so far. If we put them into four buckets, it might help explain their rankings below a little better. Pitchers with bad results who have good stuff and strong strikeout-minus-walk rates seem like solid buy-low candidates. Their peripherals are solid, so the results should follow. The mixed bags are probably holds as you wait for more information. The pitchers with both bad stuff and bad strikeout-minus-walk rates are going to fall the most.
Bad results, but:
• Good Stuff+, good K-BB: Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, Ryan Pepiot
• Mediocre Stuff+, good K-BB: Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen, Luis L. Ortiz
• Good Stuff+, mediocre K-BB: Framber Valdez, Sandy Alcantara, Corbin Burnes
• Bad Stuff+, bad K-BB: Luis Castillo, Kumar Rocker, Clarke Schmidt
We’re in that part of the season when starting pitchers have thrown 300-plus pitches. That’s when Stuff+ still beats strikeouts minus walks, but just barely, and only for a short amount of time. Command metrics are starting to come online, so you can’t ignore when a pitcher just can’t find the zone anymore. Rest-of-season projections are always the solid play, but they can still miss things.
It’s the perfect time to look at all of the different tools and come to your own conclusions.
Here are mine. Good luck hunting!
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Blurb Process
He’s not quite as good as he was in his hardware-winning debut, but Skenes still has nasty stuff and gets great results. The velo is down a bit, the arm angle too, but this might all be in the pursuit of health. His pursuit of excellence has been fruitful — this is a dominant pitcher in his prime.
Blurb Process
He’s not quite as good as he was in his hardware-winning debut, but Skenes still has nasty stuff and gets great results. The velo is down a bit, the arm angle too, but this might all be in the pursuit of health. His pursuit of excellence has been fruitful — this is a dominant pitcher in his prime.
He’s not quite as good as he was in his hardware-winning debut, but Skenes still has nasty stuff and gets great results. The velo is down a bit, the arm angle too, but this might all be in the pursuit of health. His pursuit of excellence has been fruitful — this is a dominant pitcher in his prime.
Blurb Process
Skubal actually added velocity (and stuff) but his strikeout rate has been a little down off his ceiling. The guess here is that this is temporary and he’ll go back to striking out nearly one-third of the guys he faces. Otherwise, there’s not too much to say about this ace with the best fastball/changeup combo in the big leagues.
Blurb Process
Skubal actually added velocity (and stuff) but his strikeout rate has been a little down off his ceiling. The guess here is that this is temporary and he’ll go back to striking out nearly one-third of the guys he faces. Otherwise, there’s not too much to say about this ace with the best fastball/changeup combo in the big leagues.
Skubal actually added velocity (and stuff) but his strikeout rate has been a little down off his ceiling. The guess here is that this is temporary and he’ll go back to striking out nearly one-third of the guys he faces. Otherwise, there’s not too much to say about this ace with the best fastball/changeup combo in the big leagues.
Blurb Process
This is not to say that Wheeler hasn’t changed at all. He’s added a little ride to his fastball, a little zip to his splitter, a little two-plane movement to his curveball and a little sweep to his sweeper. But that’s just maintenance and the maturation of a true six-pitch mix that comes with command and stuff in spades.
Blurb Process
This is not to say that Wheeler hasn’t changed at all. He’s added a little ride to his fastball, a little zip to his splitter, a little two-plane movement to his curveball and a little sweep to his sweeper. But that’s just maintenance and the maturation of a true six-pitch mix that comes with command and stuff in spades.
This is not to say that Wheeler hasn’t changed at all. He’s added a little ride to his fastball, a little zip to his splitter, a little two-plane movement to his curveball and a little sweep to his sweeper. But that’s just maintenance and the maturation of a true six-pitch mix that comes with command and stuff in spades.
Blurb Process
It’s honestly surprising to see basically an average Stuff+ number for Gilbert (98 is the average starter), but I guess it’s possible that his breaking balls aren’t great. His slider has pretty average movement for a hard gyro slider, and 88 mph for that type of pitch is increasingly normal, which is crazy, but true. The curveball gets less drop than most curves, too. But Gilbert actually throws two variations on that curve, meaning he has five pitches with power and command. That’s just about the best way to take advantage of average stuff — plus, in the face of great results for three seasons now, that Stuff+ isn’t very concerning.
Blurb Process
It’s honestly surprising to see basically an average Stuff+ number for Gilbert (98 is the average starter), but I guess it’s possible that his breaking balls aren’t great. His slider has pretty average movement for a hard gyro slider, and 88 mph for that type of pitch is increasingly normal, which is crazy, but true. The curveball gets less drop than most curves, too. But Gilbert actually throws two variations on that curve, meaning he has five pitches with power and command. That’s just about the best way to take advantage of average stuff — plus, in the face of great results for three seasons now, that Stuff+ isn’t very concerning.
It’s honestly surprising to see basically an average Stuff+ number for Gilbert (98 is the average starter), but I guess it’s possible that his breaking balls aren’t great. His slider has pretty average movement for a hard gyro slider, and 88 mph for that type of pitch is increasingly normal, which is crazy, but true. The curveball gets less drop than most curves, too. But Gilbert actually throws two variations on that curve, meaning he has five pitches with power and command. That’s just about the best way to take advantage of average stuff — plus, in the face of great results for three seasons now, that Stuff+ isn’t very concerning.
Blurb Process
The search for more pitches to match Crochet’s dominant fastball/cutter combo has produced a decent sinker, a slider that models love but the pitcher rarely uses, and a meh changeup. Mixed results. Good thing he throws the best cutter in the game by Stuff+ and still sits 96-plus from the left side.
Blurb Process
The search for more pitches to match Crochet’s dominant fastball/cutter combo has produced a decent sinker, a slider that models love but the pitcher rarely uses, and a meh changeup. Mixed results. Good thing he throws the best cutter in the game by Stuff+ and still sits 96-plus from the left side.
The search for more pitches to match Crochet’s dominant fastball/cutter combo has produced a decent sinker, a slider that models love but the pitcher rarely uses, and a meh changeup. Mixed results. Good thing he throws the best cutter in the game by Stuff+ and still sits 96-plus from the left side.
Blurb Process
Ragans actually improved this offseason. He dropped his arm angle six degrees but retained his fastball shape, meaning it now comes in even flatter in its approach and produces more whiffs. He added a little movement to his curveball, which the Stuff+ model liked. A little more depth to his slider, and a little better velo with the four-seam — just a stud.
Blurb Process
Ragans actually improved this offseason. He dropped his arm angle six degrees but retained his fastball shape, meaning it now comes in even flatter in its approach and produces more whiffs. He added a little movement to his curveball, which the Stuff+ model liked. A little more depth to his slider, and a little better velo with the four-seam — just a stud.
Ragans actually improved this offseason. He dropped his arm angle six degrees but retained his fastball shape, meaning it now comes in even flatter in its approach and produces more whiffs. He added a little movement to his curveball, which the Stuff+ model liked. A little more depth to his slider, and a little better velo with the four-seam — just a stud.
Blurb Process
It’s kind of amazing to see how many changes the Yankees had in store for Fried at this point in the dominant lefty’s career. He’s now cutting his four-seam more, getting four inches more drop on the sinker, getting two inches more sweep on his sweeper (which he’s throwing a lot more, even to opposite-handed hitters), more depth on his slider, more velocity gap on his changeup — that’s a lot. He’s going to be in the mix for the Cy Young Award again this year.
Blurb Process
It’s kind of amazing to see how many changes the Yankees had in store for Fried at this point in the dominant lefty’s career. He’s now cutting his four-seam more, getting four inches more drop on the sinker, getting two inches more sweep on his sweeper (which he’s throwing a lot more, even to opposite-handed hitters), more depth on his slider, more velocity gap on his changeup — that’s a lot. He’s going to be in the mix for the Cy Young Award again this year.
It’s kind of amazing to see how many changes the Yankees had in store for Fried at this point in the dominant lefty’s career. He’s now cutting his four-seam more, getting four inches more drop on the sinker, getting two inches more sweep on his sweeper (which he’s throwing a lot more, even to opposite-handed hitters), more depth on his slider, more velocity gap on his changeup — that’s a lot. He’s going to be in the mix for the Cy Young Award again this year.
Blurb Process
It is a little weird how many fastballs Brown throws now. If you count his cutter, he’s throwing a hard pitch nearly two-thirds of the time. It’s working, and the model says it’s a good idea, so maybe there’s nothing to worry about. If it stops working so well, he has a really good knuckle curve he could throw more, too. This is power with much more command than he was supposed to have coming up in the minors. This is dominance.
Blurb Process
It is a little weird how many fastballs Brown throws now. If you count his cutter, he’s throwing a hard pitch nearly two-thirds of the time. It’s working, and the model says it’s a good idea, so maybe there’s nothing to worry about. If it stops working so well, he has a really good knuckle curve he could throw more, too. This is power with much more command than he was supposed to have coming up in the minors. This is dominance.
It is a little weird how many fastballs Brown throws now. If you count his cutter, he’s throwing a hard pitch nearly two-thirds of the time. It’s working, and the model says it’s a good idea, so maybe there’s nothing to worry about. If it stops working so well, he has a really good knuckle curve he could throw more, too. This is power with much more command than he was supposed to have coming up in the minors. This is dominance.
Blurb Process
In terms of movement, it’s a slightly boring fastball. The curveball is big, but slow. The cutter is kinda stuck in no-man’s land, movement-wise. But Yamamoto has an elite splitter and has improved his command in his second year. His results are backed by impeccable walk and strikeout rates. He may not ever have an elite breaking pitch, but he has a great mix that’s working.
Blurb Process
In terms of movement, it’s a slightly boring fastball. The curveball is big, but slow. The cutter is kinda stuck in no-man’s land, movement-wise. But Yamamoto has an elite splitter and has improved his command in his second year. His results are backed by impeccable walk and strikeout rates. He may not ever have an elite breaking pitch, but he has a great mix that’s working.
In terms of movement, it’s a slightly boring fastball. The curveball is big, but slow. The cutter is kinda stuck in no-man’s land, movement-wise. But Yamamoto has an elite splitter and has improved his command in his second year. His results are backed by impeccable walk and strikeout rates. He may not ever have an elite breaking pitch, but he has a great mix that’s working.
Blurb Process
When Greene added a splitter, it seemed irrelevant. The problem wasn’t stuff but command. Guess he didn’t see it that way. What Greene has decided to do is to turn all the stuff dials up past 11 and throw everything in the zone. No other pitcher has upped their zone rate as much, and no other pitcher has gotten as many whiffs in the zone this year. Nobody throws as hard, either, which I guess could be worrisome for his health, but he’s just so good … let’s just not worry about that whole thing.
Blurb Process
When Greene added a splitter, it seemed irrelevant. The problem wasn’t stuff but command. Guess he didn’t see it that way. What Greene has decided to do is to turn all the stuff dials up past 11 and throw everything in the zone. No other pitcher has upped their zone rate as much, and no other pitcher has gotten as many whiffs in the zone this year. Nobody throws as hard, either, which I guess could be worrisome for his health, but he’s just so good … let’s just not worry about that whole thing.
When Greene added a splitter, it seemed irrelevant. The problem wasn’t stuff but command. Guess he didn’t see it that way. What Greene has decided to do is to turn all the stuff dials up past 11 and throw everything in the zone. No other pitcher has upped their zone rate as much, and no other pitcher has gotten as many whiffs in the zone this year. Nobody throws as hard, either, which I guess could be worrisome for his health, but he’s just so good … let’s just not worry about that whole thing.
Blurb Process
The velo is fine. The strikeouts and walks are in line with his excellent norms. The shapes on his pitches are fine. Even if his fastball is a little worse this year, there’s no reason Sale should be struggling like this. So it’s safe to assume that his ERA will improve. Remember: ERA is not predictive. Like, at all.
Blurb Process
The velo is fine. The strikeouts and walks are in line with his excellent norms. The shapes on his pitches are fine. Even if his fastball is a little worse this year, there’s no reason Sale should be struggling like this. So it’s safe to assume that his ERA will improve. Remember: ERA is not predictive. Like, at all.
The velo is fine. The strikeouts and walks are in line with his excellent norms. The shapes on his pitches are fine. Even if his fastball is a little worse this year, there’s no reason Sale should be struggling like this. So it’s safe to assume that his ERA will improve. Remember: ERA is not predictive. Like, at all.
Blurb Process
The cutter really tied the room together for Webb. A true bridge pitch that sits in between his excellent sinker and sweeper, it’s helping all of his pitches play up by creating confusion at the plate. The strikeouts have been the only missing thing, so if he keeps his rate anywhere near the 31 percent he’s currently sporting, he could finally hoist the Cy this year.
Blurb Process
The cutter really tied the room together for Webb. A true bridge pitch that sits in between his excellent sinker and sweeper, it’s helping all of his pitches play up by creating confusion at the plate. The strikeouts have been the only missing thing, so if he keeps his rate anywhere near the 31 percent he’s currently sporting, he could finally hoist the Cy this year.
The cutter really tied the room together for Webb. A true bridge pitch that sits in between his excellent sinker and sweeper, it’s helping all of his pitches play up by creating confusion at the plate. The strikeouts have been the only missing thing, so if he keeps his rate anywhere near the 31 percent he’s currently sporting, he could finally hoist the Cy this year.
Blurb Process
His velo is down, but there’s reason to believe deGrom when he says it’s on purpose — his maximum velocity is right where it was last year, and fairly vintage, but his sitting velocity is lower. Research suggests that sitting further from your max is better for your elbow, so maybe this is a good thing? He’s no longer a top-three type stuff-ist, but top-25 Stuff+ is still good, and a healthy deGrom is better than no deGrom at all.
Blurb Process
His velo is down, but there’s reason to believe deGrom when he says it’s on purpose — his maximum velocity is right where it was last year, and fairly vintage, but his sitting velocity is lower. Research suggests that sitting further from your max is better for your elbow, so maybe this is a good thing? He’s no longer a top-three type stuff-ist, but top-25 Stuff+ is still good, and a healthy deGrom is better than no deGrom at all.
His velo is down, but there’s reason to believe deGrom when he says it’s on purpose — his maximum velocity is right where it was last year, and fairly vintage, but his sitting velocity is lower. Research suggests that sitting further from your max is better for your elbow, so maybe this is a good thing? He’s no longer a top-three type stuff-ist, but top-25 Stuff+ is still good, and a healthy deGrom is better than no deGrom at all.
Blurb Process
Cease doesn’t have great command. So he’ll lose the plot once in a while and give up a few blowouts, which is what happened in Sacramento early this season. Otherwise, the Padres righty has been vintage, with tons of strikeouts, not many walks and usually a good home run rate to boot. All of his peripherals point to better days ahead — he’s one of the most lock solid buy-lows on the market.
Blurb Process
Cease doesn’t have great command. So he’ll lose the plot once in a while and give up a few blowouts, which is what happened in Sacramento early this season. Otherwise, the Padres righty has been vintage, with tons of strikeouts, not many walks and usually a good home run rate to boot. All of his peripherals point to better days ahead — he’s one of the most lock solid buy-lows on the market.
Cease doesn’t have great command. So he’ll lose the plot once in a while and give up a few blowouts, which is what happened in Sacramento early this season. Otherwise, the Padres righty has been vintage, with tons of strikeouts, not many walks and usually a good home run rate to boot. All of his peripherals point to better days ahead — he’s one of the most lock solid buy-lows on the market.
Blurb Process
The model likes Peralta’s new, harder slider. Nobody’s had an extra-base hit off it and it has an elite 59 percent whiff rate — so naturally, Peralta has reduced his usage of the pitch. Go figure. Maybe that’s a tool he can use to stave off any regression, because he’s shaken off his characteristically slow Aprils and has been gangbusters out of the gate. Everything looks good under the hood for the Brewers’ ace.
Blurb Process
The model likes Peralta’s new, harder slider. Nobody’s had an extra-base hit off it and it has an elite 59 percent whiff rate — so naturally, Peralta has reduced his usage of the pitch. Go figure. Maybe that’s a tool he can use to stave off any regression, because he’s shaken off his characteristically slow Aprils and has been gangbusters out of the gate. Everything looks good under the hood for the Brewers’ ace.
The model likes Peralta’s new, harder slider. Nobody’s had an extra-base hit off it and it has an elite 59 percent whiff rate — so naturally, Peralta has reduced his usage of the pitch. Go figure. Maybe that’s a tool he can use to stave off any regression, because he’s shaken off his characteristically slow Aprils and has been gangbusters out of the gate. Everything looks good under the hood for the Brewers’ ace.
Blurb Process
The strikeouts are still there, so maybe the low Stuff+ isn’t worrisome. Still, you have to notice that Tyler Glasnow’s down a tick on the fastball, his curveball is bigger and slower, and his slider has three inches less drop. The walk rate is weirdly high. This doesn’t quite look like peak Glasnow.
Blurb Process
The strikeouts are still there, so maybe the low Stuff+ isn’t worrisome. Still, you have to notice that Tyler Glasnow’s down a tick on the fastball, his curveball is bigger and slower, and his slider has three inches less drop. The walk rate is weirdly high. This doesn’t quite look like peak Glasnow.
The strikeouts are still there, so maybe the low Stuff+ isn’t worrisome. Still, you have to notice that Tyler Glasnow’s down a tick on the fastball, his curveball is bigger and slower, and his slider has three inches less drop. The walk rate is weirdly high. This doesn’t quite look like peak Glasnow.
Blurb Process
He’s better when he has the touch on his splitter, a pitch he doesn’t throw in between starts and is probably the newest offering in his arsenal, so that’s probably what happened in the Toronto game. Schwellenbach threw the fewest splitters he had all year in that start and had his only bad game of the season (six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings). A wide, funky arsenal with heat and command deserves to rocket up the board like this, even if the strikeout rate is slightly below average.
Blurb Process
He’s better when he has the touch on his splitter, a pitch he doesn’t throw in between starts and is probably the newest offering in his arsenal, so that’s probably what happened in the Toronto game. Schwellenbach threw the fewest splitters he had all year in that start and had his only bad game of the season (six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings). A wide, funky arsenal with heat and command deserves to rocket up the board like this, even if the strikeout rate is slightly below average.
He’s better when he has the touch on his splitter, a pitch he doesn’t throw in between starts and is probably the newest offering in his arsenal, so that’s probably what happened in the Toronto game. Schwellenbach threw the fewest splitters he had all year in that start and had his only bad game of the season (six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings). A wide, funky arsenal with heat and command deserves to rocket up the board like this, even if the strikeout rate is slightly below average.
Blurb Process
The low Stuff+ on King’s changeup might just be wrong. It looks like a good pitch by the eye test, and though it has below-average drop, it’s fast, and he hasn’t given up an extra-base hit on it all year. If the pitch benefits from command more than shape, maybe it’s OK to trust that changeup command is something he has by now. It’s an important pitch for him against lefties because his sinker, sweeper and slider aren’t amazing pitches against southpaws. Being able to pair the four-seam and changeup is his core strategy against lefties, and it’s working well now. Perhaps this projected ERA is too high for a guy who’s had an ERA that’s started with a two for his last 360-plus innings.
Blurb Process
The low Stuff+ on King’s changeup might just be wrong. It looks like a good pitch by the eye test, and though it has below-average drop, it’s fast, and he hasn’t given up an extra-base hit on it all year. If the pitch benefits from command more than shape, maybe it’s OK to trust that changeup command is something he has by now. It’s an important pitch for him against lefties because his sinker, sweeper and slider aren’t amazing pitches against southpaws. Being able to pair the four-seam and changeup is his core strategy against lefties, and it’s working well now. Perhaps this projected ERA is too high for a guy who’s had an ERA that’s started with a two for his last 360-plus innings.
The low Stuff+ on King’s changeup might just be wrong. It looks like a good pitch by the eye test, and though it has below-average drop, it’s fast, and he hasn’t given up an extra-base hit on it all year. If the pitch benefits from command more than shape, maybe it’s OK to trust that changeup command is something he has by now. It’s an important pitch for him against lefties because his sinker, sweeper and slider aren’t amazing pitches against southpaws. Being able to pair the four-seam and changeup is his core strategy against lefties, and it’s working well now. Perhaps this projected ERA is too high for a guy who’s had an ERA that’s started with a two for his last 360-plus innings.
Blurb Process
Valdez will be just fine. Though his location numbers are fine overall and average for his career, his command can be spotty, and that can lead to a poor start or even a poor stretch from the lefty. His sinker is actually harder this year, with more movement, and his changeup and curve are the same as they ever were. Those three pitches are still there for him, so he doesn’t need to overhaul his mix. Just a little steadier on the command front and he’ll get right back to his normal numbers.
Blurb Process
Valdez will be just fine. Though his location numbers are fine overall and average for his career, his command can be spotty, and that can lead to a poor start or even a poor stretch from the lefty. His sinker is actually harder this year, with more movement, and his changeup and curve are the same as they ever were. Those three pitches are still there for him, so he doesn’t need to overhaul his mix. Just a little steadier on the command front and he’ll get right back to his normal numbers.
Valdez will be just fine. Though his location numbers are fine overall and average for his career, his command can be spotty, and that can lead to a poor start or even a poor stretch from the lefty. His sinker is actually harder this year, with more movement, and his changeup and curve are the same as they ever were. Those three pitches are still there for him, so he doesn’t need to overhaul his mix. Just a little steadier on the command front and he’ll get right back to his normal numbers.
Blurb Process
Does anyone love fastballs as much as Woo? It’s great that he has such a good combo of four-seamers and two-seamers, but it leads to lower strikeout rates and can be a little nerve-wracking when he needs a whiff. His slider is harder this year, with less movement, and Stuff+ says that was a bad move. Results on the pitch disagree, however, as he has given up only a .111 slugging percentage on the pitch, and the whiff rate is higher this year, too. Breaking out into a top-15-type pitcher requires more production from this pitch, and good health — which has sometimes eluded him.
Blurb Process
Does anyone love fastballs as much as Woo? It’s great that he has such a good combo of four-seamers and two-seamers, but it leads to lower strikeout rates and can be a little nerve-wracking when he needs a whiff. His slider is harder this year, with less movement, and Stuff+ says that was a bad move. Results on the pitch disagree, however, as he has given up only a .111 slugging percentage on the pitch, and the whiff rate is higher this year, too. Breaking out into a top-15-type pitcher requires more production from this pitch, and good health — which has sometimes eluded him.
Does anyone love fastballs as much as Woo? It’s great that he has such a good combo of four-seamers and two-seamers, but it leads to lower strikeout rates and can be a little nerve-wracking when he needs a whiff. His slider is harder this year, with less movement, and Stuff+ says that was a bad move. Results on the pitch disagree, however, as he has given up only a .111 slugging percentage on the pitch, and the whiff rate is higher this year, too. Breaking out into a top-15-type pitcher requires more production from this pitch, and good health — which has sometimes eluded him.
Blurb Process
Burnes’ cutter is not quite as bad as it was early last year, but it’s also not as good as it was late last year. He’s also lost some velo on the pitch, and for the first time in his career, it’s not an average cutter by Stuff+. The Diamondbacks’ ace still has good breaking balls that are keeping his overall numbers clean enough to believe in a rebound, but so much depends on him refinding his No. 1 pitch. Again.
Blurb Process
Burnes’ cutter is not quite as bad as it was early last year, but it’s also not as good as it was late last year. He’s also lost some velo on the pitch, and for the first time in his career, it’s not an average cutter by Stuff+. The Diamondbacks’ ace still has good breaking balls that are keeping his overall numbers clean enough to believe in a rebound, but so much depends on him refinding his No. 1 pitch. Again.
Burnes’ cutter is not quite as bad as it was early last year, but it’s also not as good as it was late last year. He’s also lost some velo on the pitch, and for the first time in his career, it’s not an average cutter by Stuff+. The Diamondbacks’ ace still has good breaking balls that are keeping his overall numbers clean enough to believe in a rebound, but so much depends on him refinding his No. 1 pitch. Again.
Blurb Process
You can’t just play the K-BB game with Ryan and call him an ace. He’s given up more homers than your average pitcher every year of his career and has run slightly higher than expected ERAs as a result. The WHIP is always there because of his great command, and he’ll get those strikeouts — but with his fastball velocity retreating to where it was earlier in his career, it’s certainly possible that he’ll give up more than 1.5 homers per nine innings again this season, as he did the last time his fastball had below-average velocity.
Blurb Process
You can’t just play the K-BB game with Ryan and call him an ace. He’s given up more homers than your average pitcher every year of his career and has run slightly higher than expected ERAs as a result. The WHIP is always there because of his great command, and he’ll get those strikeouts — but with his fastball velocity retreating to where it was earlier in his career, it’s certainly possible that he’ll give up more than 1.5 homers per nine innings again this season, as he did the last time his fastball had below-average velocity.
You can’t just play the K-BB game with Ryan and call him an ace. He’s given up more homers than your average pitcher every year of his career and has run slightly higher than expected ERAs as a result. The WHIP is always there because of his great command, and he’ll get those strikeouts — but with his fastball velocity retreating to where it was earlier in his career, it’s certainly possible that he’ll give up more than 1.5 homers per nine innings again this season, as he did the last time his fastball had below-average velocity.
Blurb Process
Rasmussen is all the way back. He’s throwing more of a true cutter now, harder with less drop. His sweeper has more sweep and his four-seam has more ride, but the overall theme — blistering breaking balls and good fastballs with command — is the same as it was before his latest surgery. He may not be an asset in quality start leagues because the Rays don’t leave him in long, and his full-season innings total is a guess, but the quality of those innings will be very high.
Blurb Process
Rasmussen is all the way back. He’s throwing more of a true cutter now, harder with less drop. His sweeper has more sweep and his four-seam has more ride, but the overall theme — blistering breaking balls and good fastballs with command — is the same as it was before his latest surgery. He may not be an asset in quality start leagues because the Rays don’t leave him in long, and his full-season innings total is a guess, but the quality of those innings will be very high.
Rasmussen is all the way back. He’s throwing more of a true cutter now, harder with less drop. His sweeper has more sweep and his four-seam has more ride, but the overall theme — blistering breaking balls and good fastballs with command — is the same as it was before his latest surgery. He may not be an asset in quality start leagues because the Rays don’t leave him in long, and his full-season innings total is a guess, but the quality of those innings will be very high.
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The kick-change is good. The pitch has great drop and comes in at 88 mph. It pleases models and has befuddled hitters so far. The other two newcomers — the four-seam and cutter — are only OK. So lefties still have an advantage over the sinker/slider righty, particularly because his command of the new pitches is (unsurprisingly) spotty. But the changeup is a decent neutralizer, giving Holmes a true starter’s mix. The only real questions are how many innings he’ll manage and if the walk rate against lefties comes down.
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The kick-change is good. The pitch has great drop and comes in at 88 mph. It pleases models and has befuddled hitters so far. The other two newcomers — the four-seam and cutter — are only OK. So lefties still have an advantage over the sinker/slider righty, particularly because his command of the new pitches is (unsurprisingly) spotty. But the changeup is a decent neutralizer, giving Holmes a true starter’s mix. The only real questions are how many innings he’ll manage and if the walk rate against lefties comes down.
The kick-change is good. The pitch has great drop and comes in at 88 mph. It pleases models and has befuddled hitters so far. The other two newcomers — the four-seam and cutter — are only OK. So lefties still have an advantage over the sinker/slider righty, particularly because his command of the new pitches is (unsurprisingly) spotty. But the changeup is a decent neutralizer, giving Holmes a true starter’s mix. The only real questions are how many innings he’ll manage and if the walk rate against lefties comes down.
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One start can tell you a lot about a pitcher. In Strider’s case, it can tell us that he lost a tick and a half to this last elbow surgery, he’s lowered his arm angle and his slider is more sideways. Those aren’t necessarily good things. But even for stats designed to be meaningful more quickly, one start is still one start. There’s still a great chance that Strider comes back from this hamstring injury and is close to vintage in a few weeks.
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One start can tell you a lot about a pitcher. In Strider’s case, it can tell us that he lost a tick and a half to this last elbow surgery, he’s lowered his arm angle and his slider is more sideways. Those aren’t necessarily good things. But even for stats designed to be meaningful more quickly, one start is still one start. There’s still a great chance that Strider comes back from this hamstring injury and is close to vintage in a few weeks.
One start can tell you a lot about a pitcher. In Strider’s case, it can tell us that he lost a tick and a half to this last elbow surgery, he’s lowered his arm angle and his slider is more sideways. Those aren’t necessarily good things. But even for stats designed to be meaningful more quickly, one start is still one start. There’s still a great chance that Strider comes back from this hamstring injury and is close to vintage in a few weeks.
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(Illustration: Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; photo of Hunter Brown: David Berding/ Getty Images; photo of Hunter Greene: G Fiume/ Getty Images; photo of Spencer Schwellenbach: Mark Blinch / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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