Should Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks be in panic mode? ‘I know what I gotta do’

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Following a 123-115 loss in Indianapolis, Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo took questions from reporters about his team’s defensive struggles, playing his first playoff game with Damian Lillard, a big-time Bobby Portis performance and many other aspects of his team’s Game 2 defeat.

To close his news conference, though, Antetokounmpo made it clear that he did not have anything more to say and instead wanted to move on to the Bucks’ next game on Friday at Fiserv Forum.

“My mindset right now is Game 3,” Antetokounmpo said. “I know the f—ing deal, man. I know the deal. I know what I gotta do.”

Antetokounmpo has been spectacular in this series thus far, averaging 35 points, 15 rebounds and four assists in 38.8 minutes per game, but that has not translated into wins as the Bucks get ready to take their home court facing a 2-0 series deficit. Ultimately, while the two-time MVP believes he knows what he needs to do for the Bucks to win, Milwaukee has dug itself a sizable hole. Now they have to try to find their way out.

Heading into Game 3, let’s look at the panic meter.

Panic meter: Offense

Through two games, the Bucks have played two very different games offensively.

In Game 1, the Bucks shot 41.7 percent from the field, which included making only nine of their 37 3-point attempts (24.3 percent), and ended the game with just 98 points (offensive rating of 100.0). In Game 2, the Bucks shot 50.6 percent from the field, knocking down 14 of their 35 3-point attempts (40 percent), and ended the game with 115 points (offensive rating of 118.6). While Game 1 was rough, it does seem like those struggles might have been more of an aberration than Game 2.

Offensively, it all starts with Antetokounmpo. The Pacers have not found much of an answer for the Bucks star, who is putting up massive numbers while also shooting 65.1 percent from the field. With Lillard on the floor, Antetokounmpo was even more lethal than in Game 1, as the Pacers had fewer players they could leave on the perimeter to build the wall against the Greek Freak.

While the performance of the Bucks’ supporting cast was buoyed by an impressive performance by Bobby Portis (28 points, 12 rebounds), the Bucks also committed 16 turnovers and Lillard made just 4 of 13 shots in his 37-minute return to action after missing over a month with a deep vein thrombosis (DVT) blood clot in his right leg. With the Pacers’ struggles matching up with Antetokounmpo, the Bucks should have an opportunity to put together a big offensive performance every game of this series, if they can cut down on their turnovers.

As Lillard returns to form, the problems should grow for the Pacers. If the Pacers want to trap and force the ball out of Lillard’s hands in the two-man game, as they did at various times throughout Game 2, and also show a crowd to Antetokounmpo, the Bucks should frequently be able to line up open catch-and-shoot 3s out of the two-man game with their two stars.

Panic meter: 5 out of 10

Panic meter: Defense

The Bucks have not consistently found an answer for the Pacers’ offensive attack. Through two games in this series, the Pacers have posted a 121.8 offensive rating, an improvement on their regular-season offensive rating (115.4) and the second-best of any team in the playoffs.

In their search for answers in Game 2, the Bucks tried things at a rate they’ve never done before.

Per Second Spectrum, the Bucks switched on 23.3 percent of ball screens, the 17th-highest rate of any NBA team in the regular season. In Game 2, they switched on 52.8 percent of ball screens, which topped their switching rate in any game from the regular season. The Bucks switched on 40.9 percent of ball screens in Game 1, already a sizable uptick from the regular season.

“I like our switches overall,” Lopez said Thursday. “We switched Brook (Lopez) a couple times and there was supposed to be help and no one came. Those were game plan mistakes and those can’t happen.”

Game plan mistakes, like leaving Lopez on an island one-on-one with Haliburton in the play above, have been a regular talking point for the Bucks since Game 2 ended. Immediately following the game, Portis noted game plan mistakes in the first few minutes of the game and told reporters those are things that just can’t happen. On Thursday, Rivers explained why.

“It’s disheartening,” Rivers said. “You know what makes it tough from the coaching standpoint? You think about an adjustment, but you’re not doing your coverage right. So, do you make an adjustment? Or do your coverage right?

“It’s a lot easier when you’re doing your coverage and they’re hurting you in that to pull the trigger on the next thing. It’s really hard when you’re not doing your coverage.”

The Bucks had some moments in Game 2 that suggest they can put together a strong game defensively if they execute better, but those moments have not been consistent enough. Instead, the Bucks still find themselves making some of the same mistakes at the point of attack that bested their defensive execution in the regular season.

“No middle drives, that’s killing us,” Rivers said. “That’s on the ball, middle drives, I think they generated almost 40 points on middle drives alone. That’s just mano-a-mano and that’s one of our No. 1 rules. That has to be taken away. We have to be better at the point of the ball in pick-and-roll coverage.”

This second-quarter possession shows how middle drives can be a real problem for a defense:

After dancing around with Kuzma, Tyrese Haliburton got to the middle off a late screen from Myles Turner and the Bucks’ defensive shell was compromised. Portis needed to help, which opened up the pocket pass to Turner. Turner opening up on the roll forced Trent to leave Nesmith to help contain the pick and roll and left Nesmith open for a 3 on the left wing.

“They’re 0.91 (points per possession) against switching, so we don’t need to do anything else,” Rivers said when asked about what more they needed to do on possessions to make heavy switching work for them. “We just need to do it even better because we can live with that, but we want to be better.”

To be successful switching against the Pacers, not only will the Bucks need to execute at the point of attack, they will also need to make the right rotations as a possession unfolds and then make defensive plays in positions that may be uncomfortable.

On the possession above, the Bucks executed their switches successfully to start the possession, but just as Trent thought about switching onto the rolling Turner and sending Lillard to the corner, Haliburton threw a skip pass to keep him on Nesmith. From there, Nesmith drove baseline on his closeout and created a deep paint touch for Turner, which the Pacers center finished over the top of Antetokounmpo.

As the Bucks approach Game 3, they have tried a lot of different things against the Pacers defensively and found success at times, but they need to find a way to more consistently make things difficult on the Pacers, who have been very comfortable the entire series. That will require high-level communication, trust and execution, things that the Bucks have yet to find defensively in this series.

Panic meter: 10 out of 10

Panic meter: Overall

The Bucks have been confident in the wake of their Game 2 loss. Most players have mentioned how the Pacers did what they were supposed to do by winning their two home games, and now the Bucks need to do the same. It would be inaccurate to state that the team was panicking as Game 2 approached, but the pressure heading into Game 3 in Milwaukee on Friday night is very real.

Considering teams that win the first three games in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win the series 100 percent of the time (157-0) in NBA history, the Bucks need to win Game 3.

If they lose, they are staring down a third consecutive first-round exit from the postseason. While the context behind each exit is valuable to note — Antetokounmpo injured and missing two games in 2023 and being out last year’s first-round series with the Pacers — it would be a difficult reality for the organization to accept, considering this was a team that expected to contend for a championship each of the last three seasons.

Panic: 9 out of 10

(Photo of Giannis Antetokounmpo: Trevor Ruszkowski / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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