Three first-round series will shift to new locations on Friday’s NBA schedule as the 2025 NBA Playoffs wrap up its first week of action. Celtics vs. Magic (+4.5) at 7 p.m. ET and Bucks vs. Pacers (+5.5) at 8 p.m. ET will see both home teams looking for their first victories, while Lakers vs. Timberwolves (-3) at 9:30 p.m. ET has the teams split 1-1. Teams often live and die by the 3-point shot, with the stat often being a focus for NBA player props. The over/under of 1.5 made 3-pointers is a popular line for NBA props on Friday including LeBron James, Kristaps Porzingis, Julius Randle and Paolo Banchero. While the NBA player props differ for each, James has a plus-money payout for his Under (+108), courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. The league’s all-time leading scorer has gone Under 1.5 made 3-pointers in four straight games.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Jaylen Brown Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-120)
Jayson Tatum missed the first playoff game of his career in Game 2, and with his absence, Brown responded by sinking 5 of 7 shots from downtown. The five made 3-pointers was just one off his postseason career high, and Tatum is again listed as doubtful for Game 3, just as he was in Game 2 before ultimately sitting out. Brown has made multiple 3-pointers in four of his last six games overall, and one of those that he went Under 1.5 was his last game of the regular season when he played limited minutes.
“This projection includes a 50% Jayson Tatum and he’s been listed as doubtful so if/when he is ruled out Brown’s projection and line will increase so I think it’s important to act now on this,” Oh said. “And even if Tatum does come back perhaps he is not as focused on shooting the three given his wrist injury and he will look to penetrate and kick out to teammates like Brown more than normal.” These odds may shift, depending on Tatum’s status, so it’s best to jump on this prop now.
Pascal Siakam Over 2.5 assists (-125)
Siakam has played 12 games versus Milwaukee since joining the Pacers in 2024, and he’s averaged 3.5 assists during this stretch. He had three dimes in Game 2, and he has a large body of work versus Milwaukee to observe as these teams also met in last year’s playoffs. Over Siakam’s last seven postseason games versus the Bucks, he’s gone Over 2.5 assists five times and is averaging 4.0 assists during these contests. That average is on point with what’s projected for the three-time All-Star on Friday.
“We have Siakam projected for over 4 assists and probably a good 70% chance of the over so it’s worth paying slightly heavier juice that implies 56% and most books have this at -140 or more,” Oh revealed, making this a value play at -125 at Fanatics.
Julius Randle Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-104)
Randle has never been known for his jumpshot, but he entered the 2025 NBA Playoffs sizzling from deep and hasn’t cooled off. He made 18 of 40 (45%) 3-point attempts over his last seven regular-season games, and he’s gone 6 of 10 (60%) in the postseason. He’s averaging 2.7 made 3-pointers over this stretch and, going back even further to his last 14 games, the Over is 9-5 for Randle. Additionally, the Lakers are allowing opponents to sink 41.6% of 3-point attempts over their last nine games, and opposing power forwards have averaged 2.44 made 3-pointers versus L.A. on the season. You can snag this prop at -104 at FanDuel.
“This is going to be a back-and-forth series and after a really bad 20% from three as a team shooting night we expect MIN to bounce back with a typical nearly 40% 3pt night,” Oh stated. “When you look at 7 Wolves players with a 1.5 or higher make line, Randle is by far the best value.”
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Friday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 107-71-1 (+2887) over his last 179 NBA picks.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 144-97 (+2988) over his last 241 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Friday, which includes a pick on one of Boston’s stars.
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