Tennessee quarterbacks threw for 3,621 yards (8th fewest in the NFL), 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in 2024. Cam Ward can do better than that, right? Ward, who anchored the highest scoring offense in the country at Miami, should provide an instant upgrade over Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. I don’t think Ward is worth drafting in a 1-QB redraft league, but he is worth a Top 4 pick in a rookie-only superflex dynasty draft and a first round pick in a rookie-only 1-QB dynasty draft. I don’t see huge NFL upside for Ward without a major upgrade of Tennessee’s skill position personnel. Instead, I see a solid QB with decent rushing potential and someone who could finish around QB7-QB10 in Fantasy as his career progresses.
What does this mean for the rest of the Titans?
Calvin Ridley was WR40 per game in 2024, but that improved to WR30 per game in his last 11 games after DeAndre Hopkins was traded. In those 11 games, Ridley was on pace for 130 targets but only five TDs. The hope would be a similar target pace but more TDs with Ward. Ridley had only seven red zone and three end zone targets all season! Ward will do a better job featuring his best receiver in the most important areas of the field. Ridley is 30 years old and coming off two straight disappointing seasons with a little more than 1,000 yards in 17 games, so I don’t think there is a very high ceiling here. However, he could absolutely dominate targets and get better QB play. A Top 20 finish is reasonable. I’d draft him as a #3 WR in Fantasy.
One last thing to watch with Ridley: He had a ridiculously high 15.3 yard aDOT last season. Ward’s deep ball numbers were underwhelming at Miami. I think Ward is better in the intermediate area. I’d like to see Ridley’s aDOT get closer to the 12.0-13.0 yard range.
Did you know Chig Okonkwo averaged 14.6 PPR Fantasy Points per game in the Fantasy playoffs and was TE4 in those 3 weeks? Consider Okonkwo a 2025 sleeper. Let’s see what the Titans do in the second round with the 35th pick, but as it stands now I could see Okonkwo being second on the team in targets. It’s easy to get excited about Weeks 15-17 of 2024 (22 catches, 182 yards and a TD), but Okonkwo has been irrelevant for Fantasy for much of his brief career. We’ll take a wait and see approach with him.
Tony Pollard is a tricky player to project. I think his production is tied more to Tyjae Spears than Cam Ward. Here’s how I break it down with Pollard:
Optimistic: Pollard was RB22 per game with only 5 TDs in 16 games, clearly hampered by Tennessee running the fewest plays inside the 5 yard line. He could easily score more TDs this season and finish as a Top 20 RB.
Pessimistic: Much of Pollard’s production came with Tyjae Spears either out or limited with an injury. In nine games with a healthy Spears, Pollard was on pace for 236/920/6 rushing. In seven games without Spears or with Spears playing less than 30% of the snaps, Pollard was on pace for 328/1,438/5 rushing. Ward won’t have any effect on those types of splits.
The Titans offense will improve in 2025, but I’m skeptical about anyone in this offense being a league-winner. Hopefully Pollard and Ridley can be Top 24 at their position and Ward and Okonkwo can be streamers.
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