UFC Fight Night prediction — Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates: Fight card, odds, start time, live stream

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Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates attack with very different intensities, but each is undeniably down to fight. Garry and Prates accepted a late opportunity to headline UFC Kansas City on Saturday.

Garry (15-1) feels no shame after his first career loss. The welterweight contender accepted a short-notice title eliminator against undefeated finisher Shavkat Rakhmonov and nearly beat him. Garry’s trash talk doesn’t always translate to action, but that doesn’t stop him from getting under his opponent’s skin. Garry publicly shared a video of Prates tapping to strikes as a regional fighter, and intends to stress test his will.

“When the going gets tough, he quits,” Garry told CBS Sports. “I’ve not seen anyone [recently] put him in the position where the going gets tough. So on Saturday night, when he steps across the Octagon from me, I’ll put him in that position and I want to see what the real Prates is like. Does he bite down on the mouthguard and swing back, or does he step back like a bitch?

“I might not have shown it, but I know this, I promise you that I hit harder than that man. If he wants to stand and bang, let’s find out.”

Prates (21-6) represents the Fighting Nerds team running roughshod through the promotion. Prates, Jean Silva, Caio Borralho and Mauricio Ruffy are a combined 19-0 with 13 finishes in the UFC. A rising tide lifts all boats. That’s certainly the case for their team. Prates, ranked No. 13 in the UFC’s official welterweight rankings, gets a serious step up in competition against Garry (No. 7). He benefits from the Fighting Nerd’s success, UFC’s need to salvage the card, and Prates’ recent KOs over Neil Magny and Li Jingliang. Not one to shy away from a physical or verbal confrontation, Prates didn’t hold back about his opponent.

“Even Ian Garry cannot believe that,” Prates told CBS Sports, laughing at Garry’s claims of hitting harder than him. “Just see how many knockouts he and I have in our careers. How many bonuses?

“He cannot [drag me into deep waters]… He can say whatever he wants. Once the Octagon closes on April 26, I’m going to smash him, knock him out and celebrate.”

Check out the full interview with Ian Machado Garry below.

Saturday’s Fight Night main card is one of the better ones recently. Five main card fighters are ranked inside UFC’s official top 15 in various divisions. Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama, Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov and Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz are solid matchups. The co-main event features former UFC light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith in his retirement fight.

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday, with the latest odds, before we make a prediction and pick the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Odds via DraftKings

Favorite Underdog Weight class
Ian Machado Garry -142 Carlos Prates +120 Welterweight
Zhang Mingyang -455 Anthony Smith +350 Light heavyweight
David Onama -180 Giga Chikadze +150 Featherweight
Michel Pereira -142 Abus Magomedov +120 Middleweight
Randy Brown -278 Nicolas Dalby +225 Welterweight
Ikram Aliskerov -520 Andre Muniz +390 Middleweight

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: April 26 | Start time: 9 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: T-Mobile Center — Kansas City, Missouri
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates: Garry did not beat Rakhmonov, but he’s the only person to take him to the distance. It’s not like Garry survived either; he nearly won the fight. His performance and willingness to fight on short notice endeared fans who are otherwise turned off by his cockiness and responsible style. Prates paved his way to the main event by knocking out every UFC fighter in front of him. Don’t let Garry fool you. The statistics don’t support his claims of having more KO power. Prates has twice as many stoppages as Garry, including a shared opponent in Magny, whom Garry couldn’t finish. What Garry has is a thoughtful approach that scales to the level of his opponent. That’s why he looks like an elite fighter against Rakhmonov but underwhelming against Michael Page. Garry and Prates have nearly identical strikes landed per minute, but Garry absorbs nearly half the blows. Prates can KO anyone, but Garry’s experience and defensive soundness should produce a win. Garry via Unanimous Decision

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