‘Why did Shedeur Sanders slide?’ is wrong question about QB who some evaluators viewed as second-round talent

The biggest story of the first day of the 2025 NFL Draft may actually have been who was not picked: Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. There was a point during the draft process that Sanders was considered a potential top-10 or even top-3 selection, but instead, Sanders — the son of Hall-of-Fame cornerback/return man and Colorado head coach Deion Sanders — slipped out of the first round entirely. 

And it has a lot of people — fans and analysts alike — asking why, and what exactly happened. 

But maybe they shouldn’t be asking that question. Maybe the better question to ask is why the widespread expectation was that a player graded by many draft analysts — including some of our own here at CBSSports.com — as a borderline first/second or even second-round pick was a lock to go in the first round in the first place.

CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones had Sanders — and every other non-Cam Ward quarterback — falling out of the first round in his mock draft because that’s the sense he got from canvassing league executives about his actual draft grade.

“In talking to folks around the league, they do not have first-round grades on Shedeur Sanders or really any of the quarterbacks outside of Cam Ward,” Jones said. “Then you go another step and it’s like okay, well who’s your QB2? You talk with some teams and it’s Tyler Shough. I know there are some reports out there that some teams have Jaxson Dart as QB2. I haven’t talked to those teams. Some folks that I’ve spoken to do have Shedeur Sanders as QB2. They just don’t have the first-round grade on him.”

The executives that Jones spoke to weren’t the only ones. Our own Mike Renner had Sanders at No. 41 on his big board, and laid out the case for Sanders potentially falling out of the first round based on the lack of quarterback-needy teams beyond the very top of the draft, where it didn’t seem like Sanders was likely to be picked.

“I think the biggest thing with this quarterback musical chairs is just that there’s not spots,” Renner noted. “With Sanders if he falls past 3, next spot’s 9. And then New Orleans, it’s like they’re in this weird window where they always try to win now and so are they going to try to play for the future with this pick? Even if you draft him, you could be bad, you could be top-five next year. So are they going to draft him? I don’t know. 

“And then the next [landing spot is] 21. You got 12 more teams until someone would realistically want a quarterback and then if it’s not Pittsburgh, well it’s not anyone else after that. Those teams all made they playoffs, they have their guys. So it really is, it could be a free fall. 

“And the other thing is, from every person that I’ve talked to that’s a draft analysts I respect, I can count maybe two people who see Shedeur Sanders as like a top-of-the-draft quarterback. And that out of the 32 teams I’ve talked to, dozens of draft analysts, how many of them have that same sort of grade on Shedeur? Maybe one, maybe two.”

Josh Edwards is another one of our draft analysts who had a second-round grade on Sanders. (He was No. 17 on Edwards’ big board because there aren’t 32 players with first-round grades despite their being 32 picks in the first round. Teams generally operate the same way, having something like 12-20 players with first-round grades per year.)

“He has average arm strength,” Edwards said. “He drifts too much in the pocket when pressured. He lacks ideal size. I like the intangibles and think he processes well when protected, but I never saw a blue chip trait that suggested he could be more than an average NFL starter.

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And CBS isn’t the only outlet that felt this way about Sanders as a prospect. 

Over at The Athletic, Dan Brugler had a first/second-round grade on Sanders and ranked him No. 34 on his big board. 

“Although not close to the athlete his father was, Sanders is a controlled, polished passer who gets the ball out accurately in structure and when throwing on the move. He is a cool customer, and his high completion percentage reflects his steady heartbeat,” Brugler wrote. “However, he benefited from a high volume of screens and checkdowns (just 23.7% of his completions the past two seasons were on throws over 10 yards). The chief concern on his college tape is his inconsistent pocket feel, which was highlighted by poor protection — he will climb and maneuver on some plays, then drift or retreat on others, vastly lowering his success rate. 

Overall, Sanders doesn’t have the physical traits to get away with some of his decisions, but he is a poised, rhythmic passer when he stays true to his skill set, and he shows the necessary touch and confidence of an NFL starter. He fits best in a timing-based offense.”

Yahoo!’s Nate Tice graded him has a Day 2 prospect. 

“Combined with traits that I would describe more as ‘fine’ than outstanding, I want to emphasize that Sanders’ projection needs to be properly gauged,” Tice wrote. “His upside is as an efficient pocket passer who can toss in a scramble or two to move the chains. A player who is a distributor rather than pure creator or playmaker. A Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater or Alex Smith (sans the plus-running ability). He has the upside of a solid starter and efficient operator of an offense, but one who needs a good amount of help around him.

There is always a chance for more, as players make all kinds of unexpected and exciting leaps at the next level, but Sanders has plenty to work on with how he maneuvers and operates from the pocket to even make that first step toward being a tangible starter at the next level. He might not have the elite traits, but there are paths to get there as long as his operation continues to be refined and he has a decent (or decent enough line) blocking for him and allowing him to develop.

Teams picking high in the draft don’t have the luxury of time. Or, usually, a quality offensive line to point at. Where quarterbacks go in the draft will always be inflated, but Sanders has the profile of a player I’d be more comfortable taking somewhere on Day 2, rather than early in the first round.

The Ringer’s Diante Lee noted Friday morning that it isn’t a huge surprise that the league didn’t view Sanders’ physical tools as being worthy of an early draft pick.

“Sanders’s Colorado film made it difficult to picture him as an early pick,” Lee wrote. “When I went through his throws midway through last season, I saw a quarterback who met the baseline threshold for accuracy and anticipation, enough to potentially be the top quarterback in this weak quarterback draft class. 

“But by the end of the season, if you weren’t looking at him through Prime’s gold-tinted lenses, Sanders was pretty clearly a hyper-trained quarterback — the kind who can fool you into thinking he is a high-floor prospect because he understands how to operate a pro-level passing game, but lacks the physical tools to actually pull it off in the NFL.

And this is all just based on the actual tape Sanders put out there — not the ridiculous narratives surrounding how he did or didn’t perform in interviews at the NFL Scouting Combine or the anonymous quotes from people who used their space to bash Sanders in the days and weeks leading up to the draft, which are more theater than anything else.

The reality is that a prospect with borderline first/second or even pure second-round grades falling out of the first and into the second round shouldn’t be that surprising. It is considered more so because of who Sanders is, and the position he plays. 

But if the quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft decided it wasn’t worth it to take the quarterback that early, then he was always going to slip to at least the back half of the round. And at that point, all it takes is for one of the quarterback-needy teams to like a different quarterback better (as the Giants did with Jaxson Dart), for the fall to come to fruition.

Still, it’s not the end of the world for Sanders. He is likely to come off the board early on Friday night. (He’s the betting favorite to be the first pick in the second round, as of this writing.) The Browns, Saints and Steelers do still need quarterbacks, and some other teams like the Raiders, Seahawks and Rams could view themselves as in need of longer-term answers at the position as well. And in the end, if he lands with the right team and puts in the work, he could end up making the NFL look silly for passing on him in the first place. It has happened with Day 2 and Day 3 picks plenty of times before.