AL East rivals will meet on Friday when the New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays. The division race is tight to begin the season, with just 4.5 games separating first and last. New York (15-10) is the division leader, with Toronto (12-13) three games back as the Blue Jays enter this matchup on a five-game losing streak. New York, meanwhile, is just 2-3 in its last five after previously winning five straight. Jose Berrios (1-1, 5.02 ERA) is on the hill for Toronto, while Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 6.53) gets the start for New York.
First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. New York is a -135 favorite on the money line (risk $135 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under is 9.5. Before making any Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 of the 2025 MLB season on a 13-6 run MLB money-line betting picks (+415). Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Friday:
Yankees to win (-130 on the money line)
Both starting pitchers are struggling a bit, but New York’s lineup is far superior. The Yankees lead the league with an .894 OPS at home and they have five regulars with an OPS over 1.000 for the season, including Aaron Judge’s eye-popping 1.247 OPS. New York is also 8-4 at Yankees Stadium, while the Blue Jays are just 4-8 on the road. SportsLine’s model projects that New York wins in 63% of simulations. While other books are currently listing the Yankees -135 or higher, Bet365 Sportsbook has the best price on this line at -130.
If you want even more MLB picks, SportsLine’s top MLB expert, Matt Severance, is heating up. Get his best bets for Friday, all from the expert who is 75-35 on his last 110 MLB picks (+1772).
Under 9.5 total runs (-115)
Concerns about Berrios and Carrasco have this total a bit higher than some other games on the Friday MLB schedule. These teams, however, have been trending to the Under recently. The Yankees have gone Under in three of their last four games, while the Blue Jays are on a three-game Under streak. Toronto has scored a combined two runs in the past three games, while New York hasn’t scored more than five in any of its last four games. The model is projecting 8.8 runs, and BetMGM Sportsbook is the book that has this game at 9.5 with the lowest juice.
You’ve now seen the best bets for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Friday. Now, get picks for every single game from the model that enters Week 5 of the 2025 MLB season on a 13-6 run on top-rated MLB picks.
Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 total bases (-130)
Chisholm has gone Over his total bases market in four of his last five games when playing at home as the favorite, with an average of 2.8 total bases per game in that span. He’s had at least one total bases in three of the past four full games that he’s played as well. The model rates this as one of its five-star MLB props for Friday, making it a strong play at -130.
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