The Chicago Cubs will try to earn the series win when they battle the Philadelphia Phillies in the second of a three-game series on Saturday. Chicago posted a 4-0 victory on Friday. The Phillies (13-13), who have lost five in a row, are just 4-9 on the road this season. The Cubs (17-10), who have won three straight, are 9-5 on their home field, but the Phillies have won nine of the last 12 meetings against the Cubs.
First pitch from Wrigley Field in Chicago is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a -112 favorite on the money line (risk $112 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Cubs odds from Fanduel Sportsbook, while the over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 7. Before making any Cubs vs. Phillies picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 of the 2025 MLB season on a 13-6 run on top-rated MLB betting picks (+415). Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Phillies vs. Cubs on Saturday:
Phillies to win (-110)
Despite losing the series opener, Philadelphia has had Chicago’s number of late. Last season, the Phillies won four of six meetings, including two of three at Wrigley Field. Philadelphia left-hander Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 2.08 ERA) will get the start. The seven-year veteran has been solid in five starts so far in 2025, allowing just 26 hits, seven earned runs and seven walks with 36 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. He received a no-decision in his last outing, a 7-5 loss to the Miami Marlins on Sunday. In that game, he pitched seven innings, allowing eight hits, two runs – one earned – with seven strikeouts.
Houston has won two games in a row for the first time this season and sports a 6-5 record at home. Despite San Diego’s hot start to the season and best record in baseball, the Padres are just 3-5 on the road in 2025. The Astros have also had San Diego’s number in games played at Houston, winning the last four meetings there. Astros pitching has limited the long ball so far in 2025, allowing just 18 home runs, fourth-best among American League teams. Caesars Sportsbook has the best price on the Phillies winning at -110.
If you want even more MLB picks, SportsLine’s top MLB expert, Matt Severance, is heating up. Get his best bets for Saturday, all from the expert who is 58-27 on his last 85 MLB picks (+1494).
Over 7 total runs (-112)
The teams have combined for eight or more runs in six of the past seven meetings. The Cubs themselves have scored seven or more runs in two of the past three games and three of the past six. Right fielder Kyle Tucker is off to a fast start to his Chicago career. In 27 games, he is batting .308 with eight doubles, two triples, seven homers, 25 RBI and eight stolen bases. In an 11-10 win over the Dodgers on Tuesday, he was 3-for-4 with a homer and two RBI.
Among the Phillies’ top hitters has been second baseman Bryson Stott. The fourth-year veteran had a nine-game hitting streak snapped on Wednesday. In 23 games, he is hitting .284 with four doubles, one triple, two homers and 13 RBI. In 15 career games against the Cubs, he is batting .275 with three doubles, one homer and six RBI. The model gives four Philadelphia batters at least a 47% chance for an RBI, including Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm. Four Chicago players were given at least a 48% chance of knocking in a run – Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch. The model is projecting 9.3 combined runs, as the over hits in over 66% of simulations.
You’ve now seen two best bets for Phillies vs. Cubs on Saturday. Now, get picks for every single game from the model that enters Week 5 of the 2025 MLB season on an 13-6 run on top-rated MLB run-line picks.
Cubs pitcher Ben Brown over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Chicago pitcher Ben Brown (2-1, 4.57 ERA) has 26 strikeouts in 21.2 innings pitched in five games, including four starts this season. He has had at least five strikeouts in each game he has appeared in, including six in four innings in his last start against Arizona. The model is projecting 5.7 strikeouts in 4.7 innings of work for Brown. DraftKings Sportsbook has this prop at -105.
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