2025 Jack Link’s 500 betting, odds, predictions: 3 free NASCAR longshot picks for Talladega Superspeedway

After an Easter Sunday break, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the track at Talladega Speedway for the 2025 Jack Link’s 500. The green flag for NASCAR at Talladega 2025 drops at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. The last nine races at this track have been won by nine different drivers, including the favorite, Ryan Blaney, who is +1000 to win at BetMGM Sportsbook. However, 2025 NASCAR Talladega longshots include the likes of Tyler Reddick (+2500), Bubba Wallace (+2200) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+3000) despite each of them visiting Victory Lane at the track in recent years.

Before entering any 2025 Jack Link’s 500 picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Talladega predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including two winners in 2025.

SportsLine simulated the Jack Link’s 500 2025 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:

Tyler Reddick (+2500 at DraftKings)

Despite being the defending race winner, Reddick is still a NASCAR longshot at +1600 at DraftKings. Reddick led for a total of 13 laps in last year’s spring Talladega race, taking the lead from Brad Keselowski for the final six laps and securing 23XI Racing’s second victory at the track. Speaking of Michael Jordan’s NASCAR team, it has led to a discernible improvement in Reddick’s results at the track since he left Richard Childress Racing for it. Reddick had an average finish of 23.3 in six Talladega starts with RCR but is at 13.3 in four races with 23XI, including top-20s in all four starts with his new team.

Christopher Bell (+2000 at DraftKings)

Bell sits third in NASCAR standings, thanks to winning three straight races earlier in the spring. He then had a couple of subpar performances but has bounced back with top 10s in his last three starts, including a pair of top-three finishes. Bell has yet to win at Talladega, but he’s performed well in recent spins on superspeedways, with three top 10s over his last five starts. That’s after he notched the same number of top 10s over his previous 16 superspeedway races. Additionally, Bell’s team, Joe Gibbs Racing, saw all four of its drivers finish in the top 15 in the last visit to Talladega Superspeedway, so JGR clearly knows how to navigate this track.

Chase Elliott (+2000 at Caesars)

The 2020 Cup Series champion hasn’t run a bad race all year, as he’s the only driver to place in the top 20 in all nine races. The model loves him not just because of his steadiness this season but also because of his history at Talladega Superspeedway, which includes two victories, both coming within his last dozen starts at the race course. Elliott also has the backing of the most successful team in NASCAR Talladega history as Hendrick Motorsports has a record 14 victories here all-time. When looking just at Dega races over the last three years, Hendrick has the best average finish (12.6), the most top-fives (six) and the most top-10s (11), but he is still +1600 at Caesars Sportsbook.

More top NASCAR at Talladega expert picks, longshots revealed

You’ve seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 Jack Link’s 500 leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, including Chase Elliott’s victory at Bowman Gray and Kyle Larson’s win at Homestead.

You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Talladega picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto’s picks, including an epic longshot of over 65-1, all from an expert who nailed 17 NASCAR winners last year. 

Visit SportsLine now to see McClure’s top NASCAR DFS picks, all from the daily Fantasy professional who has won more than $2 million playing DFS. 

2025 NASCAR Talladega odds, drivers, lineup

Ryan Blaney +1000
Kyle Busch +1100
Joey Logano +1100
William Byron +1200
Brad Keselowski +1200
Kyle Larson +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Tyler Reddick +1600
Christopher Bell +1600
Chase Briscoe +1600
Austin Cindric +1600
Chase Elliott +1600
Bubba Wallace +2000
Alex Bowman +2000
Michael McDowell +2200
Todd Gilliland +2500
Ross Chastain +2800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2800
Chris Buescher +3000
Ty Dillon +3500
Ty Gibbs +4000
Josh Berry +4000
Erik Jones +4000
Daniel Suarez +4000
Carson Hocevar +4000
Ryan Preece +4500
Austin Dillon +4500
Noah Gragson +5500
Justin Haley +5500
AJ Allmendinger +5500
Cole Custer +6500
Zane Smith +7000
Riley Herbst +7000
John Hunter Nemechek +7000
Shane Van Gisbergen +8000
Anthony Alfredo +10000
JJ Yeley +13000
Cody Ware +13000
BJ McLeod +13000