The Maple Leafs are still in control. They can’t let old demons resurface

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OTTAWA — “The past is the past,” said Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving on the eve of the postseason. “This is a different group.”

And now they get to prove it.

The Maple Leafs came up just short with their first chance at eliminating the Ottawa Senators in Game 4, losing in overtime.

It was another close game — the third straight that went to overtime — and a game that was lost chiefly on special teams. It was also the kind of game the Leafs have lost repeatedly over the years.

“I don’t think that was the case tonight,” head coach Craig Berube said when asked whether there was another example of the team’s flawed history in elimination games. “I thought our team played extremely hard, did a lot of great things. We gave up four shots in two periods. I thought we defended hard, played hard. The bounces go one way or another. I’m not too concerned about it. I thought our team was ready to go.”

Elimination games have been a problem — a big problem — in the era of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, and John Tavares.

Their Leafs have won just a single elimination game in 12 tries dating back to 2019. It explains a lot about the postseason failures, maybe everything. This team hasn’t been able to win the big game, not nearly enough.

That one win came against Tampa in the first round in 2023. Tavares won it for the Leafs in overtime of Game 6.

The most devastating of all those outcomes undoubtedly came in 2021 when, with a 3-1 series lead, the Leafs failed to close out the Habs with three chances to do so. They lost Games 5 and 6 in overtime and then fell flat again in Game 7 at home.

Lose Game 5 in Toronto on Tuesday night and the clouds of that series will begin to resurface.

These Leafs are still in full control though. While each of the last three games could have gone either way, they remain the more talented team, by a lot, and the team that’s controlled most of the series.

Ottawa has led for about 35 minutes all series compared to 115 for the Leafs.

“Obviously we knew it was gonna be tough coming in here,” Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who scored for the second time this series in Game 4, said afterward. “There’s some stuff that we did really well and some stuff that we have to clean up, as always. I like our spot here.”

What needs to be cleaned up? Discipline to start with.

As he lined up for a defensive zone faceoff in the first period, Max Domi shoved Shane Pinto and drew a roughing penalty that led straight to the Sens first goal.

The Leafs took 13 penalties in Games 2-4 to 10 for their opponent.

Minding the whistle is especially crucial right now because the penalty kill, in a carryover from the second half of the regular season, has increasingly been a problem: The Leafs have killed off only 66.7 percent of Ottawa’s power plays in the last three games (6-9).

Simon Benoit just missed getting in front of Tim Stützle’s one-time power play blast in Game 4, and so did Anthony Stolarz.

Meanwhile, the Leaf power play, which had been so dominant in the first three games of the series, wasn’t that in Game 4. There was the shorthanded goal that Pinto snuck between Stolarz’ pads on a breakaway, following a series of lost board battles in the Ottawa zone and a failed attempt to keep the puck in by Marner. Later came a four-minute gift of a power play in overtime (sans Tavares) in which the Leafs generated five shots (plus a post on a Matthews attempt) but failed to score.

They could have ended the series right then and there and can’t miss chances like that again in Game 5.

Another thing that needs to change: More opportunity for the No. 2 line that features Nylander and Tavares.

The top line of Matthews, Marner and Matthew Knies logged a team-high of almost 16 minutes in Game 4, and deservedly so as they were a force. But the line that finished second in ice time wasn’t the one with Nylander and Tavares on it.

No, it was the defensive-minded trio of Scott Laughton, Steven Lorentz, and Calle Järnkrok. They logged over 13 minutes.

Too much.

Tavares, Nylander and Pontus Holmberg played just 8.5 minutes. Add in the nearly four minutes that Bobby McMann spent on the line in Holmberg’s place and the unit still played less than Laughton’s crew.

Laughton logged almost 18.5 minutes in all at five-on-five. That was more than Matthews (18:04), Nylander (16:48) and Tavares (15:19). Tavares did miss a large chunk of overtime after he was drilled by Artem Zub in front of the Ottawa net, but still.

Laughton should not be logging the third-most five-on-five minutes of any Leaf forward, which he did in Game 4.

By the end of regulation, Nylander had played only 15.5 minutes, a smidge less than Tavares, who was just shy of 16. This on a night when Nylander was rolling and arguably the Leafs most dangerous player — with two primary assists and six shots on 10 attempts.

Nylander was the Leafs’ most dangerous player in Game 4 but had played just 15.5 minutes by the end of regulation. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Images)

Spreading around the minutes early in the series was one thing, but not now, and not anymore, when the Leafs have a chance to close things out. Berube needs to dial up the minutes not just for Nylander, but Matthews, who had totalled less than 19 minutes by the end of regulation.

At one point in the first period, the Leafs coach pulled off the Matthews line when the opportunity for an offensive zone faceoff presented itself and dropped out the Domi-led third line instead, which proceeded to end up in their own defending.

The Leafs coach should let his stars push this team over the top.

Of course, those stars need to deliver when it counts. They were involved in that way in Game 4, ultimately producing all three goals in defeat in one way or another.

The Leafs need even more from them now as the series shifts back to Toronto.

Berube should stick with the changes he made in the third period of Game 4, namely swapping Holmberg out for McMann on that second line. McMann brought some juice to the unit and looked more engaged after the promotion.

Keeping him there also sends Domi back to the wing.

The Domi-led third line again struggled mightily in Game 4, winning 5.8 percent of the expected goals in their 6.5 minutes. Not good. Shot attempts were 16-6 for Ottawa in their time out there. The Sens repeatedly stretched the group out in transition, including on the David Perron goal that put the Leafs behind in the third period.

Max Pacioretty looked a step behind the pace in his second game back. Berube might well consider putting Nick Robertson back in for Game 5, if only on the chance that he’ll score in his return to the lineup.

The Leafs don’t have to repeat the past. As Treliving said, this is a different group — until proven otherwise.

(Top photo: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images)

-Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference

This news was originally published on this post .

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