The Los Angeles Dodgers are tied with the New York Yankees for the MLB lead in home runs (45), and both teams are in action during the Monday MLB schedule. Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez homered against Pittsburgh on Sunday, going yard for the third time in his last four games and for the eighth time in 2025. Teammate Tommy Edman also has eight homers this season, his most recent long ball coming against the Cubs last Tuesday. Edman is a +850 longshot to go yard on Monday at Bet365, while Hernandez is +525 in the latest MLB prop bets. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets last Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called a HR prop in 12 of the last 20 days and is up 31.2 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +22121 odds and would pay out $2,212.13 on a $10 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
James Wood, Nationals (+540)
Wood has clearly been the top power hitter in Washington’s lineup this season, hitting eight home runs through his first 105 at-bats. The 22-year-old homered last Wednesday and has hit safely in five of his last six games, including a pair of multi-hit outings. He has a .912 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a 1.000 OPS at home. Wood is facing Mets starter Griffin Canning, who allowed 31 home runs last season.
“According to statscast, Wood is in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage and average exit velocity, while his bat speed is 92nd percentile,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “If Canning leaves one over the plate, there’s a good chance Wood will make him pay.” FanDuel is offering the best odds at +540.
Francisco Lindor, Mets (+350)
The model is backing a player from both teams in this Monday afternoon contest, as Lindor has a strong matchup as well. He has five multi-hit games in his last seven outings, with three of those being three-hit games. The star shortstop has five home runs this season, going yard twice against Philadelphia last Monday. Lindor is facing Nationals starter Trevor Williams, who allowed an MLB-worst 34 home runs in 2023.
“Lindor has seen Williams quite a few times, and although Lindor has just 1HR in 14 ABs against Williams, Lindor’s .643 SLG% indicates that he sees him well,” Fetner said. Bet365 has this at +350, but FanDuel’s +330 line will be used for the parlay.
Jacob Wilson, Athletics (+900)
The rookie shortstop hit his third home run of the season against the White Sox on Friday during a 3-of-4 day at the plate. Wilson has shown a significant power improvement after hitting seven home runs in 103 games across all levels in 2024. He rarely walks or strikes out, batting .324 through 105 at-bats. The model sets the line at +850 for Wilson to homer on Monday, providing some value at this price.
“This is a strong matchup for Wilson against Patrick Corbin, and if Wilson is going to run into the ball, this is a strong matchup for him to do so. Corbin has allowed 125 HRs since 2021 which is the most in the majors and 12 more than Jose Berrios who is second on the list,” Fetner said. FanDuel is offering +900, which is significantly better compared to Caesars at +550.
More MLB picks for Monday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on an 80-38 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 12-5 over his last 17 MLB money line picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Monday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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