Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Devin Williams, Emmanuel Clase put on pause; Will Vest a favorite for saves

What a crazy week for bullpens.

As if David Bednar’s return to the closer role in Pittsburgh and Will Vest’s usurping of Tommy Kahnle in Detroit weren’t enough, there was also Camilo Doval’s encroachment on Ryan Walker in San Francisco and Ryan Pressly’s renewal of knee pains in Chicago.

But the capstone to it all has to be that the top two relievers drafted, Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams, now find themselves ceding saves to their backups.

Let’s look at the 10 closer scenarios most in flux right now.

Note: “Pecking order” refers to rosterability in Fantasy and not necessarily who’s first in line for saves (though it’s usually one and the same).

The Yankees have indeed pulled Devin Williams from the closer role after what was technically his first blown save Friday, but it was really just the latest in a long run of futility, his ERA now sitting at 10.00. This demotion wasn’t just because he had a couple of runaway outings that skewed his ERA. He’s struggled to find the strike zone and isn’t missing bats with his “airbender” changeup at anything close to the usual rate. His average fastball velocity is also down almost 1 mph from a year ago.

“He is in the prime of his career and he is just going through it a little bit, and it happens,” manager Aaron Boone said of the demotion. “The good news for Devin is he has everything to get through this and come out better from the other side. That’s my expectation.”

In other words, it sounds like just a short-term removal to get Williams right, and I’m presuming he’ll be back in the closer role within a couple of weeks. That’s why he remains first in the pecking order shown above, which refers more to Fantasy rosterability than who’s in line for save chances right now. Notably, though, the Yankees have a semi-proven replacement in Luke Weaver, who was their closer on their march to the World Series last October and has dominated in setup duties this year. If the many little issues contributing to Williams’ struggles aren’t resolved so quickly, Weaver could turn into an impactful closer himself.

Emmanuel Clase’s demotion was less official than Devin Williams’ and seems like it may already be at its end. Clase has indeed struggled, having already allowed nearly twice as many earned runs (nine) as all of last year (five), but it turns out that Cade Smith’s three saves last week were less about Clase’s performance than the mild shoulder issue he was working through. He returned from a five-game absence Saturday and struck out two in a perfect eighth inning. The Guardians haven’t had a save chance since then, but it sounds like Clase could be in line for the next one.

“I said, ‘Hey, it’s been five days,'” manager Stephen Vogt said, describing his conversation with Clase Saturday. “‘Probably look for a little lower leverage just to get you back on your feet.’ And he was great with it. That’s the teammate he is. He’ll be right back in that closer role.”

So is Clase over the hump? Well, his issues aren’t as pronounced as Williams’ are. His stuff appears to be more or less the same. He’s just been putting his cutter and slider in the same spot rather than varying them to change the eye level of hitters, as has been his normal method of attack. Could this shoulder issue linger and ultimately put him on the IL? That’s not in the Guardians’ plans right now, but sure, any shoulder issue has the potential to do that. If nothing else, this episode has shown us that Cade Smith would be next in line for saves rather than Hunter Gaddis, and Smith himself has the stuff to dominate in the role. He may be worth hanging onto, particularly as a handcuff to Clase.

There seems to be some skepticism over whether Vest is actually the Tigers closer now, and the only certainty along those lines is that manager A.J. Hinch won’t reveal his hand. But if actions speak louder than words, just look at the way he’s implemented Vest lately. Each of the right-hander’s past four appearances has been to close out a game, including three times for a save. Meanwhile, Tommy Kahnle, heretofore considered the Tigers closer, hasn’t gotten a single save during that time. It’s not due to a lack of availability either. Twice in that span, Kahnle has worked the eighth inning, directly ahead of Vest. The only time he worked the ninth was in the second game of a doubleheader Saturday, after Vest closed out the first game … for a save.

It’s true Kahnle didn’t do anything to fall out of favor with Hinch, putting together a 0.87 ERA and 0.58 WHIP so far, and I’m not even suggesting that’s what happened. What I think happened is that Hinch saw how dominant Vest’s new slider (a harder, straighter offering than in years past) made him and decided he was the better choice for the ninth. If it holds up to repeat viewings, it’s a truly dominant pitch, delivering a 61.1 percent whiff rate (as compared to 29.7 last year) and accounting for a 17.5 percent swinging-strike rate overall (as compared to 10.6 percent last year). Of course, knowing Hinch, he’ll want to deploy his best reliever prior to the ninth inning sometimes, which would leave some save chances for Kahnle still, but Vest is looking like the lead dog right now.

For as good as Bednar looked on his minor-league reclamation assignment, allowing just one baserunner in five innings of work while striking out seven, it seemed like only a matter of time before he regained the closer role in Pittsburgh, and already, it appears to have happened. After first reacclimating to the majors with three low-leverage appearances, he was handed the ninth inning with a three-run lead Friday and handled it with aplomb. He has now thrown four scoreless innings since returning, allowing two hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.

“It was nice to see the execution of his breaking ball, which was much sharper than we had seen it throughout spring training and throughout the first couple of appearances he had this year,” manager Derek Shelton said after Bednar’s first appearance back with the big club. “We’re a better bullpen with David Bednar in it, and it’s nice to have him back and out on the mound.”

Dennis Santana was adequate in Bednar’s absence and would presumably be first up should Bednar falter again, but his strikeout rate is a bit lacking for the role. Maybe it’ll go up over time — his swinging-strike rate is excellent, for what it’s worth — but he’s probably better served in a setup capacity.

Camilo Doval has now pulled even with Ryan Walker with five saves, but I maintain that Walker has mostly been a victim of bad timing. Yes, there was an ugly blown save in there that served to skew his ERA, but the Giants brought him right back out for the ninth inning of a tight game Friday and again on Saturday.  Both of those innings were scoreless, producing a combined four strikeouts, but neither was technically a save situation. So when a save situation came up Sunday, Walker was unavailable, which meant the Giants turned to Doval yet again.

That’s generally how Doval’s save chances have come about. Walker has yet to work any inning other than the ninth this year, so it’s not like the two have been trading off setup and closing duties. That said, Doval has been particularly formidable of late, allowing just three baserunners in his past eight appearances, and would make for an easy pivot should Walker lose manager Bob Melvin’s confidence.

Ryan Pressly was unavailable for nearly a week because of an inflamed right knee that had to be drained, and in that time, Porter Hodge was able to notch a save. Hodge was right back to handling the eighth inning in Pressly’s return Sunday, though, so I don’t think there’s anything to see here. It’s a little disconcerting that Pressly is receiving treatment on the same troublesome knee that’s afflicted him for years, not to mention that his swinging-strike rate is sitting at 7 percent after an already concerning drop to 13 percent last year. In leagues where saves are scarce, then, you may want to keep Hodge at the ready. As of now, though, Pressly’s job wouldn’t appear to be in jeopardy.

Sort of like Ryan Walker, I feel like Trevor Megill has mostly been a victim of bad timing. Sure, he dealt with a bit of a knee scare at one point and has pitched to an ERA just south of 5.00, but I’m talking about why he has only two saves. The opportunities just haven’t been there. The rest of the Brewers bullpen has a combined two saves, and those are split between Joel Payamps and Tyler Alexander, neither of whom is a realistic replacement for Megill. This only confirms that Megill’s lack of saves is less a matter of the Brewers losing faith in him than just … happenstance.

His stuff appears to be fine, and he’s missing bats at about the same rate as last year. As long as his knee doesn’t become a lingering issue, I suspect the Brewers will stick with him, and if he doesn’t pan out, it’s not clear where they’d turn next. Craig Yoho gives off “future closer” vibes, which is why I list him second in the pecking order, but he hasn’t become a trusted bullpen member yet. That’s why, if they needed a save tomorrow, I suspect the Brewers would turn to Abner Uribe.

A.J. Puk still doesn’t have a clear diagnosis for his inflamed elbow, but the expectation is that he’ll be sidelined for months rather than weeks, which gives Justin Martinez a chance to claim the closer role all to himself. And that’s a good thing given that his 100 mph sinker and diving splitter give him a chance to be a true standout in the role. The problem is that he’s not 100 percent either, having contended with some shoulder fatigue recently, and while he’s pitched as recently as Sunday, it was his shakiest outing of the year. Overall, his trend line is still pointing up, but it’s worth getting into who might replace him should the shoulder become a lingering issue. Shelby Miller makes a strong case, having dominated in 11 appearances with a fastball that’s up 1 mph from a year ago.

When Alexis Diaz returned from a rather ugly rehab assignment about two weeks ago, there was still some optimism that he’d regain the closer role at some point, but I’m not seeing any headway there. He’s made five appearances in all, including twice for a hold, but only one has been as late as the eighth inning, which suggests that he hasn’t overtaken setup man Tony Santillan in priority, much less closer Emilio Pagan. And the performance has been … pretty blah. Diaz has allowed three runs over his five innings (granted, all on a single home run) and has walked more (four) than he’s struck out (three). His swinging-strike rate, which had been trending down year over year, is sitting at a pathetic 8.2 percent so far. I’m closer to dropping Diaz behind Santillan in the pecking order than thinking he’s about to overtake Pagan.

The Marlins‘ record hasn’t been as bad as it’s probably going to be, which makes it all the more frustrating that they haven’t been able to use this stretch of relative success to establish clear bullpen roles. Their last save went to Calvin Faucher on April 22, but Jesus Tinoco had recorded saves on back-to-back days prior to that. It also doesn’t seem like rookie manager Clayton McCullough has been reserving either for the ninth inning in the days since. Tinoco’s latest appearance came in the sixth inning, and Faucher’s came in the eighth. Faucher has only once appeared prior to the eighth inning in a game this season, so I’m giving the edge to him, but it’s with almost no confidence.