Maple Leafs roster updates vs. Senators: Likely lines and big questions for Game 5

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TORONTO — The Maple Leafs have returned home for Game 5 against the Senators with a chance to close the series out — something that’s been so difficult for this core to do.

The Leafs are up 3-1 in the series and deserve credit for being in that place. But not putting the Senators to bed for good in Game 4 meant this stat reared its ugly head: The Leafs have now won just one elimination game in 12 opportunities, dating back to 2019. And so while the talk of demons around this team might still be premature in this series, it’s not as if we haven’t seen a version of this script before.

Can the Leafs respond with a sense of urgency not just to start, but through every period in Game 5? A win this early in the series would buy the team some much-needed recovery time. A lack of rest is clearly starting to become a factor for this team. Star centre Auston Matthews missed Monday’s practice to rest.

This Leafs team had an excellent regular season and put themselves in the position they’re now in, with a chance to close things out at home early on. Doing so would be a step toward changing the narrative around this team and ensuring that aforementioned stat gets brought up less and less. — Kloke

The likely lines

Knies — Matthews — Marner
Holmberg — Tavares — Nylander
McMann — Domi — Pacioretty
Lorentz — Laughton — Järnkrok

McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Carlo
Benoit — Ekman-Larsson

It’s a little surprising that head coach Craig Berube appears to be sticking with two things that haven’t really worked in this series: Pontus Holmberg at second-line left wing and Max Domi at third-line centre. Berube replaced Holmberg with Bobby McMann late in Game 4, and almost instantaneously, the line looked dangerous offensively in a way that it hadn’t with Holmberg. The Leafs coach, meanwhile, has tried to insulate Domi, who has an offensive zone faceoff percentage of 75 percent through four games — 21 offensive zone faceoffs to just seven in the defensive zone. But it hasn’t worked; Domi’s expected goals mark of 37 percent is among the worst on the team and his line gave up damaging goals in Games 3 and 4. Back at home, Berube can protect a Domi-led line a little more and hopefully keep them away from the Senators’ top two units. It was in Toronto that Domi scored the Game 2 overtime winner.

It’s notable, too, that Max Pacioretty is getting another chance. He had a physical impact in his return to the lineup in Game 3 but looked a step slow two nights later in Game 4, not surprising given the more than two months he was out of the lineup. Berube is obviously hoping he’ll bounce back after a two-day layoff, either with a more physical outing or a hand in creating a goal. “I’ve liked our game, so I don’t see a reason to change it now,” Berube said of his Game 5 lineup. — Siegel

The big questions

Who wins the special teams battle?

If we’re going to boil this series down to one thing so far, it might just be this. The Leafs won Games 1, 2 and 3 largely due to their power play. In Game 4, which they lost in overtime, they went 0-4 (including a four-minute opportunity in overtime) and surrendered a short-handed goal. The penalty kill has given up a goal in each of the last three games. Winning the special teams battle likely comes down to the success of the power play and, conversely, disciplining and limiting opportunities for the Sens to have an advantage. — Siegel

Can Anthony Stolarz rebound after Game 4?

The Leafs goalie didn’t necessarily have a bad game, but it’s worth wondering if the increased workload is starting to wear on Stolarz. He allowed four goals on 21 shots for, statistically speaking, his worst outing of the entire season.

The Senators own a slim lead in shots for during this series, meaning the Leafs will continue to rely heavily on their goalie in Game 5 and beyond. They can’t afford for Stolarz to allow four goals once again. Now, there’s no question Berube should go back to Stolarz; he owned the best save percentage in the NHL through the regular season, after all. After Stolarz got two days of rest, will he be ready to bounce back in Game 5? — Kloke

Can some of the Leafs’ secondary scoring influence a game?

The top four Leafs forwards have all scored at more than a point-per-game clip. And on balance, Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares have had good series against the Senators. But at some point, they’re going to need some help.

It feels like we’re nitpicking a bit here because the Leafs are up 3-1, but a combined four points from Domi, McMann, Calle Järnkrok and Scott Laughton isn’t going to cut it in order for the Leafs to have a long run. Yes, Domi’s lone point was a crucial overtime goal in Game 2. But as we’ve seen with Tavares, injuries happen and the Leafs are an unfortunate bounce away from really needing the likes of, say, McMann to step up. At home, with last change, Game 5 feels like a prime opportunity for some of the aforementioned players to contribute in a meaningful way on the scoresheet. Doing so would make this team simply too much to handle for the Senators. — Kloke

Pre-game reading

• What do the Leafs need to improve to win Game 5? James Mirtle has answers.

• Anthony Stolarz has never played this much. What does it mean?

• It’s only one loss, but are old demons resurfacing for the Leafs?

• John Tavares addressed the hit that kept him out of an OT power play in Game 4.

How to watch

The puck drops in Toronto at 7 p.m. ET. (Sportsnet, CBC, ESPN, TVAS)

(Photo of Max Domi: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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