Warriors’ Brandin Podziemski showing Rockets, rest of NBA that sometimes the best trade is one you don’t make

Jimmy Butler has been so good for the Golden State Warriors that it’s easy to forget that he wasn’t their first choice for a superstar acquisition. No, we’re not talking about their simultaneous pursuit of Kevin Durant. Dial the clock back to the summer. The Warriors had just been eliminated by the Sacramento Kings in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in game. They were determined afterward to bring a new star with them into the 2024-25 season, and while they swung and missed on a pursuit of Paul George, they eventually spent the bulk of the offseason trying to relieve the Utah Jazz of Lauri Markkanen.

What exactly was offered before Markkanen renegotiated and extended his contract with the Jazz is unclear. Since this is Danny Ainge we’re talking about here, we can safely assume several first-round picks were on the table. But one sticking point in those negotiations was a promising rookie who, at that point, had started just 28 games. The Jazz reportedly wanted Brandin Podziemski. The Warriors, who viewed Podziemski as a future All-Star and placed significant value on his cheap, rookie-scale contract, ultimately elected not to trade him. Markkanen extended. No deal was made. 

Fast forward a few months. The Warriors were below .500 around the trade deadline. They were seemingly desperate to land whatever All-Star they could find. Podziemski, meanwhile, struggled mightily in the first few months of the season. At that stage, it would have been fair to question Golden State’s decision not to push the chips in for Markkanen.

We all know how this has played out. The Warriors got Butler for a bargain. Podziemski got back on track. And on Monday, they won the Warriors a critical Game 4 against the Houston Rockets by combining for for 53 of Golden State’s 109 points on a night in which Stephen Curry’s shots weren’t falling. They now lead the Rockets 3-1 when a slightly worse night from either might have tied the series and surrendered home-court advantage to Houston.

Now, we can’t say for certain what Markkanen would have been for the Warriors. We can’t promise that Golden State wouldn’t have pursued Butler even with Markkanen on the team, either, though given the exorbitant price Utah was seemingly demanding, the Warriors might not have viewed it as possible or desirable to take another big swing like that. 

At the very least, Markkanen’s age and cap number would have made him far costlier to acquire than Butler was, and including Podziemski in the deal would have deprived Golden State of someone who has become absolutely essential to their immediate success. While Markkanen’s youth would have mattered down the line, he isn’t close to the player Butler already is defensively, nor could he generate the rim pressure or free throws for the Warriors that Butler does every night. Had they made the Markkanen deal, the Warriors would likely be worse today, and they’d likely have less youth and fewer draft assets to carry them through tomorrow.

The Warriors were just patient enough to set themselves up for what now looks like a very promising playoff run. The lesson here is that sometimes, the best trade is the one you don’t make. That’s a lesson that can apply to a lot of teams right now, but it’s one that especially should be heeded by Golden State’s first-round opponent: the Rockets.

This is Houston’s first trip back into the playoffs since 2020. They have one of the NBA’s youngest rosters and a nearly endless supply of tradable draft picks. We are about to enter an offseason in which Kevin Durant is available and Giannis Antetokounmpo could plausibly become available. The final number will ultimately be bigger than that. It always is. Someone is always upset with how their postseason went. In a month or two, the Rockets are going to be like a kid in a candy store. They can go get practically anyone.

But what the Warriors are showing them right now is just how important it is to wait for the right trade rather than jumping at the first big one that becomes available. Yes, the half-court offense has mostly been a mess in this series. That doesn’t automatically mean they should break the bank to go trade for a soon-to-be-37-year-old Durant. This is a young roster’s first run through the playoff gauntlet. They don’t even know what they have yet.

They have an idea, though. They avoided major in-season trades this year precisely because of their faith in the current group and their desire to see how it handles a situation exactly like this. The Warriors believed strongly enough in Podziemski to ride through the speed bumps. It won them Game 4 on Monday, and it might end up winning them this series. Hopefully the Rockets have a strong enough resolve to maintain a similar belief in their own youngsters. Losses like this can shake the resolve of even the strongest front offices, but if the Rockets want to compete with the Warriors down the line, their first move should be to emulate the restraint that got them here.