When American Pharoah won the Triple Crown in 2015, he became the first horse in 37 years to accomplish the feat. He would later become the only horse in history to win the American grand slam when he added a Breeders’ Cup Classic win. At the 2025 Kentucky Derby, two of American Pharoah’s offspring will compete, making this the first Run for the Roses since 1952 in which two Kentucky Derby horses sired by a Triple Crown winner ran. Luxor Cafe was trained in Japan and qualified for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs with a convincing win in the Fukuryu Stakes, while Publisher was the runner-up in the Arkansas Derby.
However, recent Kentucky Derby betting history bodes better for Publisher since five of the last six winners of the Kentucky Derby weren’t winners in their most recent prep race. Who is flying under the radar heading into the Kentucky Derby 2025, with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET? Excluding Authentic’s win in October 2020, here are the most recent winners of May Kentucky Derby’s and where they finished in the lead-up:
- 2024: Mystik Dan (3rd, Arkansas Derby)
- 2023: Mage (2nd, Florida Derby)
- 2022: Rich Strike (3rd, Jeff Ruby Steaks)
- 2021: Mandaloun (6th, Louisiana Derby)
- 2019: Country House (3rd, Arkansas Derby)
If this trend continues, Journalism, Sandman, Rodriguez, Luxor Cafe, Burnham Square, Tiztastic, Admire Daytona, American Promise, and Final Gambit would all be excluded from potential 2025 Kentucky Derby picks.
SportsLine expert Jody Demling is willing to buck the trends in his search for top horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Now that post positions have been drawn, he breaks down the lineup and makes $162 worth of Win-Place-Show, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta bets that you could use on horse racing apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET.
Demling is a fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, He has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years! He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including 2023 when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta. He also hit the Preakness in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks could be way up. See Jody’s full Kentucky Derby analysis only at SportsLine.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby surprises
One surprise is that he’s NOT picking Journalism (3-1) to win in his final leaderboard, even though Demling believes is a deserving favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. Journalism is the son of Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and despite boasting impressive progeny, Curlin has yet to sire a horse who has won the Run for the Roses. To this point, Journalism has only raced in Southern California, so he’ll have to adjust to different weather, new conditions and an unfamiliar track at Churchill Downs. The horse’s connections are also on the inexperienced side since his trainer has just one prior Derby starter, while his jockey has only two prior mounts. None of those previous starts resulted in better than a ninth-place finish.
He’s also fading Sandman for Kentucky Derby betting, even though he’s one of the top favorites at 6-1. A win in the Arkansas Derby made him look like one of the fastest deep closers in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, but he needed a brisk early pace to go from eighth-to-first against that nine-horse field and there’s almost no doubt that he’ll have a harder time getting into position while trying to navigate 20 more talented horses. Trainer Mark Casse is a hall-of-famer, but he’s 0-for-10 in his Kentucky Derby career and jockey Jose Ortiz has also failed to reach the winner’s circle in nine previous starts at the Derby. Sire Tapit has produced four Belmont Stakes winners, but has also failed to produce a Kentucky Derby winner despite a legendary stud career.
Instead, Demling is all over several double-digit longshots, including a 30-1 choice he’s including in his superfecta! Who is it? Find out here.
Plus, which of Bob Baffert’s horses is his best shot for a seventh official Kentucky Derby victory? Is a horse which qualified outside of the U.S. worth a bet like Forever Young in 2024 (3rd in the Derby)? Which longshot 20-1 closer is worth keeping an eye on? Find out here.
Use promo code “JODY” for 60 percent off your first three months of SportsLine. Join SportsLine today and access Jody’s full analysis of Kentucky Derby 151.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures, horses, post positions
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