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The Europa League may be the second-tier continental competition, but the storyline weaving through one of its semi-final clashes is second to none. You would be hard-pressed to find a fixture featuring two sides with less in common than Athletic Club and Manchester United.
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Athletic are one of the most unique entities in sports. The club has experienced steady success in one of the world’s most competitive leagues despite narrowing their recruiting focus to a specific region in Spain. Over the past decade, United have been the exact opposite. A club with a rich tradition of winning trophies is now best known for an overpaid, underwhelming and ill-fitting group of players.
The beauty of football, however, is that you can root with your heart but bet with your head. So, let’s explore where the value lies in this intriguing semi-final showdown.
New manager bounce?
When Ruben Amorim was hired to replace Erik ten Hag in early November, there was an understanding that this was a commitment to enforcing long-term change – not just a quick turnaround in results. Most managers brought in mid-season hastily comb through the wreckage, tweak personnel into a shape that makes sense, and figure out how to boost performance levels.
Amorim was never going to be that type of hire.
The Portuguese manager built his success by adhering to a strict 3-4-3 system at Sporting Lisbon. After years of rot, a lone January window wasn’t going to infuse this United side with the tactical ethos needed to yield positive results.
During the last stages of Ten Hag’s tenure, United ranked 12th in non-penalty Expected Goal Difference (xGD), per Understat data. From November onward, the start of Amorim’s reign, United have dipped to 14th.
Amorim has managed to guide United through the Europa League group stages, but it’s been due to good fortune. Against Real Sociedad in the Round of 16, the Red Devils advanced thanks to a second-leg match featuring two penalties and a red card. And then to get to the semi-finals, Amorim’s men needed a penalty, another red card and a 121st minute goal to squeeze past Lyon at Old Trafford.
— Manchester United (@ManUtd) April 24, 2025
No shots allowed
Facing Athletic is the football equivalent of going to the dentist- nothing comes easy against a club that makes nearly every match an absolute grind. Ernesto Valverde’s men have the second-lowest xG against them in La Liga and are somehow even tougher to score against in the Europa League.
Throughout their European campaign, Athletic have surrendered just 7.0 shots per 90 minutes. Even more incredible is that the xG per shot attempt sits at the average for Europe’s big five leagues. Most defensively sturdy clubs tend to make a tradeoff between shot quantity and shot quality, but the Basque club excels in both areas.
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United’s defence isn’t as noteworthy but has been quite sturdy throughout the competition. The 10.95 shots the Red Devils have allowed per 90 is good for the seventh-best mark in the Europa League. The problem for Amorim’s men won’t be eliminating chances against Athletic, but creating them.
United’s underwhelming figures at striker, Joshua Zirkzee and Rasmus Højlund, have the same glaring flaw: they don’t shoot. Højlund is averaging just 1.54 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which places him in the fifth percentile of all strikers, per FBref. Zirkzee is a little bit better at 2.20 shots per 90, but he only ranks in the 20th percentile for his position.
The players that do squeeze off more shots, typically aren’t doing so from dangerous areas. Alejandro Garnacho is taking nearly four per match (3.86 to be exact), but only generates 0.09 xG per shot, which is below average for an attacker. Bruno Fernandes suffers from a similar affliction, taking more shots per 90 than both Zirkzee and Højlund (2.66) but from worse locations (like Garnacho, just 0.09 xG per shot).
Thankfully for the Red Devils, Athletic’s attack isn’t exactly striking fear into opponents. Since the beginning of March, Valverde’s men have played 11 matches. Nine of those 11 fixtures contained two goals or less, seven of the 11 contained just one, and four lacked a goal from Athletic or their opponent entirely. Even more telling is that there are only three players who have gone into double digits for goals scored across all competitions: Oihan Sancet, Iñaki Williams, and Nico Williams.
The best bets for a low-scoring affair
The bookmakers know that taking a standard under 2.5 goals is far too appealing, so they have it priced at just 73/100. The “both teams to score: no” route is priced slightly better at 9/10 but still not all that attractive.
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If you really want to lean into the under for better odds, you’ll have to go low. Perhaps the best value bet out there is the under 1.5, priced at 9/4. That bet hits on 1-0 wins in either direction as well as 0-0 draw, which are three of the bookmakers’ five most likely outcomes (along with a 2-1 Athletic victory and a 1-1 draw).
If all this has convinced you that it’ll take nothing short of a miracle for there to be a goal, the exact total of zero goals is currently priced at 17/2. Betting on no goals always carries massive risk as any random deflection, slip in the defensive third, or howler can thwart the bet. But at nearly 9/1, given Athletic’s recent run, that wager would spice up what may otherwise be a dull affair.
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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Nico Williams: Ion Alcoba Beitia / Getty Images)
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