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Tottenham Hotspur’s season is once again on the line as they host Bodø/Glimt in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League semi-finals. Winning this tournament – and in doing so, booking passage to next season’s Champions League – is the only way to save a campaign that’s left them languishing in 16th place in the Premier League table.
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Let’s look at the game through a betting lens, attempting to predict what might transpire and find the best wagers to suit those calls.
Suspensions & home advantage pave the path to Spurs supremacy
It’s little wonder the bookmakers have priced Bodø/Glimt as serious longshots to win on the night, as there are two major factors working against them on Thursday.
The first is that they’re away from home, where they typically struggle. They’ve played seven games on the road in Europe this season and won just once, against 10-man Braga. Outside of that, they’ve drawn twice and lost four, with their last trip to England a 3-2 defeat to Manchester United.
The second is that, due to an administration error, three Glimt players are suspended for the game, two of which are key midfielders – captain and general Patrick Berg, and attacking spark Håkon Evjen. It appears the club did not fully understand the booking accumulation rules of the tournament and were shocked to find out those two players would not be available for the trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Naturally, all of this – plus the fact that Spurs were genuinely very accomplished in their 2-1 aggregate quarter-final win over Eintracht Frankfurt – plays into the hosts’ extremely short odds to win. If bettors fancy them to do the business, they’ll have to work a bit harder to make the price more attractive.
Betting Spurs and goals may be the way to go
The best way to lengthen the odds of a Spurs win is to add extra elements to the bet, such as total goals or a clean sheet.
The former is probably the safer move here, as Ange Postecoglou’s men are far more renowned for their attacking proficiency than their defensive solidity. Dejan Kulusevski’s dribbling, James Maddison’s pinpoint deliveries, and, in particular, Lucas Bergvall’s majesty on the ball, are all poised to cause Bodø/Glimt issues.
Admittedly, they did win 1-0 in Frankfurt in the quarter-final second leg, but that was their first away clean sheet of the European campaign, and they’ve kept just two clean sheets in six attempts at home.
Betting on goals feels an especially strong play when you consider the fact that not only are Glimt set to field a severely weakened midfield, but history suggests they’re unlikely to shut up shop and defend from the off – even if logic suggests they should.
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The Norwegian outfit’s footballing style is to get the ball on the deck and move it, even against far superior sides on paper. Given that they’re without Berg and Evjen for this game, there will be calls to take on a more pragmatic guise, but manager Kjetil Knudsen very rarely changes things up.
That could lead to some openness in the Superlaget’s structure or some turnovers that the Lillywhites can punish. You can wager on Spurs to win and both teams to score at 6/4, or if you’re not completely convinced Glimt will score, go with Spurs to win and over 2.5 goals at 8/11.
The away cards market deserves consideration
Betting on outcomes requires you to envision how the match will play out and how both teams are likely to approach it.
Sometimes that’s difficult to do, but in this game, it’s not: Spurs are heavy favourites, playing a weakened opponent who struggle away from home, and will look to rack up an advantage to take to the Arctic Circle next week. Bodø/Glimt, meanwhile, will do everything they can to escape north London while still “alive” in the tie, which typically means a maximum of two goals down.
If Glimt can get back to Norway within reach and welcome Berg and Evjen back to the XI, they’ll feel they can win over two legs and reach the final. To do that, there’s every chance they slow the game down where possible, time-waste here and there, and commit fouls to break up Spurs’ flow.
The away cards market, therefore, becomes of interest, and 11/8 for over 2.5 away cards feels like a good value bet. It’s priced up attractively because Knudsen’s men aren’t prolific offenders – they’ve been cautioned just 20 times in 14 games so far – but they’ll now play with a makeshift, unbalanced midfield for the first time in the tournament.
That, along with the fact the prospect of winning this tournament is becoming very real, could shape the behaviour of the Superlaget and result in more bookings than usual.
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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Lucas Bergvall: Maja Hitij / Getty Images)
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