After diving deep into the starting pitcher market last week, I’m going to turn my attention to the pool of relievers this time around. Closers tend to deliver their production in clusters, as they are at the whim of the save chances provided by their team. And as we flip the calendar to May on Thursday, it’s time to capitalize on managers who are overreacting to early season trends.
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Buy low
Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
With just two saves, Durán has been a massive disappointment. But outside of a couple extra walks, there aren’t any reasons to worry about this fireballer, who continues to record triple-digit radar gun readings. The Twins have provided him with just a pair of save chances, and the rest of the bullpen has combined for one save. Perhaps most importantly, Durán’s biggest competition for saves, Griffin Jax, has an 7.50 ERA. Minnesota has plenty of effective starters and should eventually go on a run of collecting narrow wins.
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Félix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles
Bautista is in a similar situation as Durán, as the talented Orioles have provided their bullpen with few leads. The right-hander has collected all four of the team’s saves. It’s worth noting that Bautista has allowed six walks in eight innings, but he hasn’t issued a free pass in his past three outings. I would rather acquire Durán, but a buy-low offer for Bautista could work as well.
Devin Williams, New York Yankees
I can’t provide any statistical reasons related to the current season to encourage managers to acquire Williams. He has been awful, missing his spots and frustrating himself, his teammates, Yankees fans and fantasy managers. And manager Aaron Boone has taken notice, removing Williams from the closer’s role. That being said, Williams was the No. 1 closer off the board in many drafts, and he entered the season with eye-popping career numbers (1.83 ERA, 14.3 K/9 rate). Managers who can add Williams at an extreme discount and stash him on the bench may want to make the move.
Buy high
Tanner Scott, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scott has thus far been everything the Dodgers wanted when they signed him to a lucrative four-year contract, posting a 14:0 K:BB ratio while ranking fifth in baseball with eight saves. Sure, has blown a couple saves, but he hasn’t allowed more than one run in any outing. Most importantly, the Dodgers are using Scott as a full-time closer, which was the biggest offseason question surrounding their bullpen. Los Angeles will eventually pull away from the pack, and Scott will rack up many saves along the way.
Sell low
Ryan Pressly, Chicago Cubs
Managers who drafted Pressly may wish to trade him away while he still has a ninth-inning job. The veteran has posted a poor 5:7 K:BB ratio after entering the season with concerns that his skills are declining. Porter Hodge is also off to a slow start but is a superior talent who has an excellent chance to steal the closer’s role from Pressly during May. In fact, if we remove one disastrous outing, Hodge has allowed two runs in 13 innings. The trade return on Pressly won’t be sizable, but it will be better than the return in a few weeks.
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Sell high
Carlos Estévez, Kansas City Royals
Estévez is off to a solid start (2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, eight saves), which should make him valuable on the trade market. But there are reasons to doubt the veteran righty, as his 12:9 K:BB ratio is terrible, and he has found success thanks to an unsustainable .171 BABIP. Lucas Erceg (0.79 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) is the best reliever on the Royals and could eventually take over ninth-inning duties.
Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
I hesitated to put Finnegan in this space, since I often recommended trading him last year and he defied the odds en route to collecting 38 saves. But I’m going back to the well and predicting that lightning won’t strike twice for a closer with mediocre skills who pitches for a below-average team. Finnegan continues to allow too many baserunners (1.54 WHIP) for consistent success.
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