After hitting six home runs in his first seven games this season, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge only hit one over the next three weeks of the 2025 MLB season. However, Judge appears to be heating up again with home runs in two of his last three games and MLB oddsmakers know that he has a propensity for hitting home runs in bunches. Judge’s MLB home run odds for Wednesday have dropped to +205 at DraftKings Sportsbook for a matchup against the Orioles with first pitch scheduled at 6:45 p.m. ET.
Has Judge’s priced dropped so low that he’s no longer worth including in your MLB home run picks or should you go another route entirely? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets last Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called a HR prop in 13 of the last 22 days and is up 31.6 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +11358 odds and would pay out $572.88 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Marcell Ozuna, Braves (+320)
The 34-year-old is a three-time MLB all-star and he’s got complete control over the strike zone right now. He’s slashing .295/.452/.500 and leads the National League with 26 walks. He’s also belted five home runs in 88 at-bats after hitting 40 home runs in 2023 and 39 dingers in 2024. He’ll have the advantage of playing in the thin air at Coors Field in much better weather conditions.
“Ozuna went 0-for-5 yesterday, but Coors wasn’t playing as hitter friendly yesterday as it is expected to today. Still, Ozuna squared up the ball in several at bats as he had three of those at-bats result in 95+ mph exit velocities,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +225 for Ozuna to hit a HR today, so you are getting solid value at +320 on FanDuel.”
Zachary Neto, Angels (+520)
The former first-round pick hit 23 home runs in his first full season in the MLB last year and he’s looked even more comfortable at the plate since returning from the injured list earlier this month. Neto has a .982 OPS over 10 games and has registered five extra-base hits over his last five games.
“Neto had a late start to the season after dealing with an injury, but he has settled in nicely and has three home runs over his last eight games. Neto is 9-for-20 (.450) in his last five games, so he is seeing the ball well,” Fetner said. The model sets its line at +380 for Neto and FanDuel is offering the best value with +520 odds.
Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (+350)
Carpenter hits from the left side and the Tigers have given him the opportunity to play the role of mercenary against right-handed pitching throughout his career to great result. He’s already homered in each of the first two games of the series against the Astros and he’ll be hitting leadoff again tonight with another righty on the mound in Houston.
“Carpenter has a career OPS of .893 against RHPs and has hit 45 of his 51 career HRs against righties,” Fetner said. “Today he is facing a rookie RHP (AJ Blubaugh) making his MLB debut.” BetMGM is offering the best line here, but the best odds for our MLB HR parlay comes with Carpenter at +340 from FanDuel.
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on an 84-40 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 16-5 over his last 17 MLB sides picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Wednesday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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