Grading college basketball’s 2021 coaching carousel: How hires have fared after a full recruiting cycle

You know what’s one of the least logical concepts in a sports-media culture filled with them? Assigning immediate “grades” before a player or coach has done a thing. We do it with the NFL and NBA drafts, we do it with coaching hirings.

I’ve never liked the concept. Sure, it gets attention/viewership/readership, but it’s not based in anything logical. (None other than Scott Van Pelt agrees with me.) But grading something after, you know, we have results to actually grade? That’s my jam. So here I am, back again, opting for the more patient and practical route on college basketball hirings.

As usual, I’m doing a four-years-later appraisal on power-conference coaches, which means the hiring cycle of 2021 is now up for inspection. (For previous report cards, here are my four-years-later grades from hirings in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.) The 2021 carousel was the first cycle after the COVID-stunted 2020 year, and it’s in this group where college basketball’s coaching turnover began a drastic national makeover that’s been the most volatile we’ve ever seen in a four-year stretch in college hoops history. We’ve had 55 out of the 79 schools in the Power Five see jobs swaps since 2021; that’s 69.6%. 

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Four years ago, we had 14 changes at the high-major level. If you’ve lost track on who that is, well, that’s why you’re here. All of them are graded below.

Grading 2021’s high-major hires

Mark Adams, Texas Tech

Adams went 43-26 but only lasted two years after being promoted following Chris Beard’s 2021 move to Texas. He took the Red Raiders to the 2022 Sweet 16 as a No. 3 seed, then followed that up with a 16-16 season and promptly resigned. Adams, a TTU alumnus, was under suspension at the end of that season when he resigned. The reason being he said an “inappropriate, unacceptable, and racially insensitive comment” toward one of his players, per a school investigation. So, it started well, then all came crashing down quickly in Lubbock. The program was salvaged by the Grant McCasland hire. Grade: D+

Chris Beard, Texas

Beard went 22-12 in his first season, then was 7-1 in Year 2 before a high-profile domestic-assault incident took place in the early hours of Dec. 12, 2022, which led to his firing less than a month later. The charges were eventually dropped by Beard’s then-fiancée, but even in spite of that, it was a public relations disaster for Texas. Beard took one year off, then managed to win the job at the University of Mississippi. Frankly, the situation was so messy, assigning a grade to something like this feels odd. The roster he recruited was good enough to help Rodney Terry get the full-time job for two years, but it was a calamitous and unexpected ending, one that brought an undulation of negative headlines to Texas and Beard. Grade: D+

Hubert Davis, North Carolina

The Tar Heels have been a little bit of everything in Davis’ four seasons. A 101-45 (.692) record has come with a surprise run to the national title game in 2022, an infamous run from preseason No. 1 ranking to missing the NCAAs altogether in 2023, then a No. 1 seed in 2024, followed up by a controversial back-door inclusion into the 2025 Big Dance. Taking over for Roy Williams was never going to be easy, but Davis has made it harder at some points than it needed to be. Still, there have been bright spots. He’s recruited and coached two of the most accomplished Tar Heels ever in Armando Bacot and RJ Davis. He ended Mike Krzyzewski’s career — both in Duke‘s final home game and then at the Final Four. Fascinating situation here. Davis is squarely on the hot seat heading into 2025-26. Grade: C+

Earl Grant, Boston College

Grant won 59% of his games across seven seasons at Charleston before landing the BC job in 2021. Since then, he’s won 46% of the time, equating to a 61-72 mark. That would be cause for job termination at a lot of spots, but Boston College is among the 10 worst high-major jobs in the sport these days. Grant is coming off the worst of his four seasons (12-19, 4-16 in the ACC), meaning he’ll need to have a strong swing in the other direction next season to ensure he’s still around for a sixth year in Chestnut Hill. Grade: C-

Ben Johnson, Minnesota

There are six coaches who were hired in 2021 and didn’t make it to a fifth season. Johnson, canned in mid-March, went 56-71 and failed to bring the Golden Gophers the NCAAs. His firing was justified, but keep in mind that Minnesota was bottom two in the Big Ten in NIL support every year Johnson was there. Tough to fight against that tide. He was a surprise hire in 2021, and ultimately Johnson was doomed by getting the job at the same time Minnesota had to try and make headway in the most volatile recruiting landscape in college basketball history. Grade: C

Tommy Lloyd, Arizona

The 50-year-old Lloyd has won 112 games in four seasons, putting him among the most successful coaches ever to start a head coaching career. Arizona has 33 losses against those 112 wins, though they’ve yet to advance past the Sweet 16 in his four seasons. Still: Arizona has been a No. 1 seed, a No. 2 twice and a No. 4 in the Big Dance. It won four combined regular season and conference tournament titles in the Pac-12 under Lloyd. In transitioning to the Big 12, Arizona managed a third-place finish and recovered after a wobbly opening month to this past season. Now, this is Arizona. One of the 10 best jobs in the sport. Without at least one Elite Eight appearance — despite having four years of good seeds — I can’t go into the “A” territory, but I’ll do the next closest thing. And mark me down for Lloyd getting the Wildcats to the Final Four at some point in the next four seasons. Grade: B+

Wes Miller, Cincinnati

For a good spell in the 2010s, Miller was one of the younger coaches in college basketball. You might not realize he’s run a program for the past 14 years. But the hard-earned success he found at UNCG hasn’t translated to Cincinnati, where the Bearcats are 82-59 (.582). That’s an OK mark, but it hasn’t led to an NCAA Tournament appearance. Two years in the Big 12 and two years in the American and here’s the conference standings finish, in reverse order: 12th, 11th, fourth, seventh. Last season’s team was a strange flameout, going 19-16 seemingly with top-25 talent. Miller is on the hot seat heading into 2025-26, needing to get UC into March Madness to keep his gig in the Queen City. Grade: C

Porter Moser, Oklahoma

The Sooners broke through to the NCAAs in Year 4 under Moser, who is 74-59 in Norman and was aching for a quality season. OU went 20-14 and got a No. 9 seed this year, falling to UConn in the first round. Moser has some things working against him. OU is a weird basketball fit in the SEC, and the transition from Big 12 to SEC was bumpy. Plus, the local fan base doesn’t fill up the home arena for most games. His average KenPom finish the past four seasons: 42.5. Things could be better, but they could also be worse. Moser’s work in the portal this spring has been impressive, and he’s about to have a lottery pick in the 2025 draft. Upward momentum after some initial growing pains. Grade: C+

T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State

The Cyclones have a 95-45 mark under Otzelberger and have made the NCAA tourney in all four of his seasons. The Cyclones are regulars in the AP Top 25, have returned to being one of the best teams in the Big 12 and have made a pair of Sweet 16s. The deep run hasn’t happened yet, but it’s probably en route in the back half of this decade. In a 2021 cycle with a few really good hits, this is among the feel-good stories. Otzelberger was a terrific hire, and if things continue apace, he could be the kind of coach that lasts 15-plus seasons in one spot. Grade: A-

Micah Shrewsberry, Penn State

He was a two-and-through in State College, going 37-31 but bringing the Nittany Lions to the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament with a No. 10 seed — and a win to go along with it. It vaulted him to the Notre Dame gig; we’ll check back in with Shrews in two years to see how things pan out in South Bend. As for his short go of it at Penn State? Grade: B+

Shaka Smart, Marquette

When Steve Wojciechowski was fired in 2021, Marquette fans were only asking for a reasonable standard to be met. Bring in a guy who can make the NCAA Tournament just about every year, and keep Marquette in the conversation every few years to compete for a league title. Through four tours in Milwaukee, Smart’s done the job — and remember, he quietly dipped out of Texas in order to get this gig. He’s 98-41 (.705), has captured two Big East championship trophies, made a Sweet 16 and brought the Golden Eagles back to consistent relevance. Marquette’s been ranked for 54 weeks in the past four seasons, amounting to nearly 75% of the time since Smart came on. Smart has done it with minimal portal assistance. That dogma will be put to its toughest test yet next season. Grade: B+

Tony Stubblefield, DePaul

This has proven to be the toughest job at the high-major level over the past three decades. Stubblefield was given a little more than 2.5 seasons to make it work, but it flamed out in Chicago. A 28-54 record before being fired in January of 2024, DePaul went on to finish last in the Big East in Stubblefield’s lame duck season. It takes a lot for me to hand out an “F” and I won’t be doing that here. This is a very tough job, and it wasn’t all on him that it didn’t work out. Grade: D+

Craig Smith, Utah

The Utes were 65-62 in nearly four seasons under Smith, who was fired somewhat out of the blue in late February. Some in the industry believed Smith should have received a fifth season and one last chance to get it going in Utah. But that wasn’t going to happen with athletic director Mark Harlan working Alex Jensen to take over soon after Smith’s firing. A key factor in this switch ties into how good Utah is historically as a basketball school; the Utes are better than you think, and it’s fair to say that any coach who can’t make the NCAAs once in four years there is up for a job change. Hopefully, Utah’s NIL situation will improve from what it was in the past three years. Grade: C-

Mike Woodson, Indiana 

Woodson went 82-53 (.607) and lasted four seasons at his alma mater. He took Indiana to the NCAA Tournament in 2022 and 2023. Expectations were never met, continuing a trend in Bloomington that has persisted for the better part of 25 years (if not more). Furthering Woodson’s downfall, he had a sub-.500 record against ranked opponents and failed to finish in the top seven of the Big Ten in three of his four seasons. Toss in substantial NIL commitments in his final two years, which led to zero NCAA Tournament wins, and it all snowballed to an unfortunate divorce for the Bob Knight disciple. Grade: C+

Mid-major notables from 2021

There was a good run on mid/low-major hires four years back as well, so I won’t overlook the guys who made an impact at lower levels. The coaches listed below all exceeded expectations since arriving in 2021. Coaches with an asterisk have since moved on to bigger jobs: 

• Richard Pitino, New Mexico*
• Ryan Odom, Utah State*
• Steve Lutz, Texas A&M Corpus Christi*
• Pat Kelsey, Charleston*
• Drew Valentine, Loyola Chicago
• Josh Schertz, Indiana State*
• David Riley, Eastern Washington*
• Darris Nichols, Radford*
• Mike Magpayo, UC Riverside*
• Patrick Sellers, Central Connecticut State