‘The potential is there’ – but will Hamilton, Ferrari make breakthrough?

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Miami hosts the second Sprint event of the Formula 1 season this weekend, six weeks after the first of the year in China had seemingly provided early lift-off for both Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari career and the Italian team’s season.

It may not have been a full Grand Prix, but the seven-time champion’s pole and impressive win in the 19-lap race at the Shanghai International Circuit appeared significant at the time, given it came at the start of just his second race weekend with the team and after what had been a tricky debut in Australia.

Ferrari have not hit the same heights in the five full-length races this season, with Hamilton’s struggles in the SF-25 particularly pronounced, although Charles Leclerc’s run to their first Grand Prix podium of the year last time out in Saudi Arabia did offer more promise.

The issue for Ferrari, who already brought some significant upgrades to round four in Bahrain, is that the further behind they fall, the less justifiable it will become to pour resource into what is fast becoming a failure of a campaign, ahead of the introduction of radical new regulations for the 2026 season.

A weekend off either side of the Miami Grand Prix is giving them a chance to regather, but then a European triple-header kicks off a run of six races in eight weeks that will take us to the halfway point of the season.

Starting at the Miami International Autodrome as the sixth round of the season plunges straight into competitive action with Sprint Qualifying on Friday night, Ferrari desperately need a breakthrough.

Ferrari still behind but did Saudi offer hope?

Ferrari head to Miami still behind their leading rivals in fourth in the Constructors’ Championship, although closer to third-placed Red Bull and second-placed Mercedes than they were after marginally outscoring both in each of the last two races in the Middle East.

The 18 points they lost when both their cars were disqualified from the Chinese GP would have turned an 11-point deficit on Red Bull – for who Max Verstappen has scored all but two of their 89 points – into a seven-point advantage.

But the bigger concern for the Scuderia is that already a mammoth 110 points ahead of them are McLaren, the team they finished just 14 points behind in a late run at the constructors’ title at the end of last season and had aspirations of beating this time around.

There has been plenty of speculation about what has caused Ferrari to be off the pace in the early goings but after Leclerc’s podium in Jeddah, team boss Frederic Vasseur maintained that the “potential” to compete with the leaders exists.

“The most critical for us is the difference between qualifying pace and race pace,” Vasseur said after the race.

“I think the race… the second stint was very strong. I think we were faster than [Oscar] Piastri and Verstappen in the last 35 or 40 laps of the race.

“We have to put our focus on this to be much more consistent all over the weekend, but I think we can take [Saudi Arabia] as a positive because we just stepped forward at least in the race pace. It was very strong and I think that the potential is there, but we just have to do a better job all over again.”

What about Hamilton?

As the seven-time world champion admitted himself, Leclerc’s result was the only positive that he could take from the Jeddah weekend given the difficulties he experienced in the SF-25 around the fast street circuit.

Having already lapped 0.531s slower than his team-mate in qualifying, Hamilton finished four places and 31 seconds behind Leclerc in the 50-lap race.

Afterwards, he described the race as having been “horrible” and “not enjoyable at all”, while admitting “I don’t have any answers” to explain his own struggles.

“At the moment, there’s no fix,” he then suggested. “So this is how it’s going to be for the rest of the year. It’s going to be painful.”

Offering such a downbeat prognosis on his prospects for the remaining 19 rounds of the season may have had more to do with the fact Hamilton’s comments were made in the immediate aftermath of the race, when disappointment and frustration would have naturally been at a high level, but on the evidence of Saudi he’s a long way from where he wants to be with the car.

“The worry for me is that [the China Sprint] is now becoming the outlier,” said Sky Sports F1’s Karun Chandhok on The F1 Show.

“Since the Sunday of China where Leclerc got ahead of him in the race, despite having a broken front wing, Leclerc was quicker. The trend is the worry for me.

!In Australia, Lewis was 0.16 off Charles, in Japan it became 0.30, In Bahrain it became 0.59, Saudi it became 0.60.

“For a driver who we are hoping becomes more and more accustomed to life at Ferrari, that gap should have been closing down, but it’s going the wrong way.

“In Saudi, he just looked so deflated. Looking at the data, that as a driver, psychologically, is like ‘where do I begin?'”.

But despite that growing gap to his team-mate, Vasseur insisted: “Honestly, I am not too worried. If you have a look on what he did in China or what he did in the race in Bahrain, or even on the first part of the session in this weekend, the potential is there for sure.

“We just have to adjust the balance because we are, collectively, Lewis and us, we are struggling with the balance of his car and [how] he is working the tyres.

“It’s a kind of negative spot, but I think the potential of the car is there and we will try to solve that.”

Did Leclerc give clue on Hamilton disparity?

Leclerc out-qualifying Hamilton has not come as a huge surprise, given both the Monegasque’s strong Saturday reputation and the seven-time world champion having been comprehensively out-performed over one lap by George Russell at Mercedes last season.

Hamilton was regularly able to turn the tables on Russell on a Sunday but so far trails Leclerc 4-0 in terms of Grands Prix finishes.

Speaking to Sky Sports F1’s Martin Brundle ahead of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Leclerc explained how he felt he was making progress with the car, before backing up that logic by taking third in the race.

“At the beginning of the year, I remember it was a very open balance, so very tricky in corner entry, quite a bit of mid-corner understeer. We are starting to find solutions to resolve the mid-corner understeer.

“It means that we’ve got to drive with a trickier car but this is something that I particularly like.

“I think in terms of balance, we are pretty much in the sweet spot of the car. What we are missing for now is just grip in low and medium speed. High speed, we are not too bad.”

The tricky nature of the car that Leclerc says he “particularly” likes is clearly not suiting Hamilton, but if that’s the only setup which extracts enough pace from the SF-25 to make it competitive, it could be a very long campaign for the Brit.

Analysing the situation after the race in Jeddah, Brundle suggested Hamilton needs a breakthrough of his own – in terms of setup – if he is to bridge the gap to Leclerc.

“I struggle to buy into that Lewis doesn’t understand the car. It’s a new car but we are knocking on the door of May,” Brundle said.

“I just think Lewis hasn’t gelled with this car. I don’t think he’s going the right way on set-up. Things I’ve heard from Mercedes are Lewis likes the car in a certain way. It’s difficult days.

“We know Lewis is better and faster than this. Something is not working, something is not gelling.”

Sky Sports F1’s Miami GP schedule

Thursday May 1
7pm: Drivers’ Press Conference

Friday May 2
3pm: F1 Academy Practice 1
5pm: Miami GP Practice (session starts at 5.30pm)
7.30pm: Team Bosses’ Press Conference
8.15pm: F1 Academy Practice 2
9.05pm: Miami GP Sprint Qualifying (session starts at 9.30pm)

Saturday May 3
3.20pm: F1 Academy Qualifying
4pm: MIAMI GP SPRINT (race starts at 5pm)
6.30pm: Ted’s Sprint Notebook
7.50pm: F1 Academy Race 1
8.35pm: Miami GP Qualifying build-up
9pm: MIAMI GP QUALIFYING*
11pm: Ted’s Qualifying Notebook*

Sunday May 4
6pm: F1 Academy Race 2
7.30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: Miami GP build-up*
9pm: The MIAMI GRAND PRIX*
11pm: Chequered Flag: Miami GP reaction*
Midnight: Ted’s Notebook

*also live on Sky Sports Main Event

Formula 1 heads to Miami for a Sprint weekend this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime

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