The 2-seed Houston Rockets are on the brink of elimination as they host the 7-seed Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of their first-round series in the 2025 NBA playoffs on Wednesday. The Warriors took both games at home to take a 3-1 lead. On Tuesday, Golden State topped Houston 109-106. The Rockets went 29-12 at home during the regular season, with the Warriors logging a 24-17 road record.
Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from Toyota Center in Houston. Houston is a 4-point favorite in the latest Rockets vs. Warriors odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points is 203.5. Before locking in any Warriors vs. Rockets picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Warriors vs. Rockets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Warriors vs. Rockets:
- Warriors vs. Rockets spread: Houston -4 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Warriors vs. Rockets over/under: 203.5 points
- Warriors vs. Rockets money line: Houston -188, Golden State +157
- HOU: Rockets are 45-40-1 against the spread this season
- GS: Warriors are 43-41-3 against the spread this season
- Warriors vs. Rockets picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Warriors vs. Rockets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Warriors can cover
Guard Stephen Curry finds a way to consistently make plays. In this series, he’s leading the team in points (26) and assists (6) while shooting 41% from downtown. Curry has scored more than 30 points in two of the last four games. In Game 3, he had 36 points, seven rebounds and nine assists.
Forward Jimmy Butler gets downhill with ease to either score or find the open man. Butler is averaging 18.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and four assists per game. The 37-year-old tallied 25-plus points in two of his last three games. In the Game 4 win, Butler totaled 27 points, five boards and six dimes. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Rockets can cover
Guard Fred VanVleet is a smooth ball handler and space creator on the outside. He is first on the team in assists (4.5) this postseason with 14.8 points and 1.3 steals per game. The 31-year-old has scored at least 17 points in consecutive games. In his previous outing, VanVleet totaled 25 points, six assists and went 8-12 from beyond the arc.
Center Alperen Sengun has a soft touch around the rim in the post and racks up boards at a high volume. Sengun is first on the team in points (22.2), rebounds (11.5) and steals (1.8). The 22-year-old has racked up three straight double-doubles. On Monday, Sengun had 31 points, 10 rebounds and five assists See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Warriors vs. Rockets picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Warriors vs. Rockets and is leaning Over the total, projecting 207 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Warriors vs. Rockets, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Rockets spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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