Why the Maple Leafs should explore major lineup changes in Game 6, but probably won’t

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What do you do now if you’re Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube?

Stay the course and try to maintain some calm? Or, after two straight losses in elimination games, shake up the lineup for Game 6 in Ottawa?

Throughout his first season with the Leafs, Berube was more apt to stay the course with certain pockets of his lineup. He was much less prone to experimentation than his predecessor, Sheldon Keefe (which stings at a time like this), and seems inclined to roll, again, with a similar look.

Craig Berube says he’ll look at #leafs lineup changes for Game 6, but it doesn’t sound like a big shakeup is coming:

“I don’t want to change too much. I think there’s been a lot of good.”

— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) April 30, 2025

The time might be right to get shaking, though, after how things went for the Leafs in Game 4 and especially Game 5.

What kind of major change could he explore?

The place to start is at the top of the lineup, with the first line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies. While they’ve been, easily, the team’s best and most dangerous line against the Senators in this series, it’s hard to say they’ve dominated.

Shot attempts are 68-47 for the Sens in their 60.5 minutes. Shots are basically even. The Leafs have outscored Ottawa 4-1, though, and won the bulk of high-danger scoring chances (13-8). The line has had pockets of domination, but nothing sustained.

Berube rightly described their efforts in Game 5 as one and done.

So, why make a change? Because the Leafs aren’t generating enough of anything substantive on offence, especially lower in the lineup.

What might change entail?

Berube could make the obvious switch and flip Marner for William Nylander on right wing. It’s not a move he made very often during the regular season; Nylander logged only 141 minutes with Matthews (less than he played with Max Pacioretty and Pontus Holmberg), and some of that came with Marner on the other wing.

Berube was much more stuck on the Matthews-Marner combo than Keefe ever was, which is surprising since it was Keefe who brought the concept into reality after Mike Babcock repeatedly spurned it.

The Leafs didn’t generate anything substantive in Game 5, losing 4-0 to the Senators. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)

The question now is whether it’s worth sticking with the highly accomplished combo. The thought process behind the Matthews-Marner connection has always been fairly straightforward: Pair the world’s greatest shooter with one of the world’s greatest passers.

But what if that shooter is no longer, for the time being, the world’s greatest shooter? What then?

Does it make more sense for the Leafs to connect Marner with John Tavares, having the best shooting season of his NHL career, and see if that combination can catch fire? And conversely, could playing with Matthews, who remains a threat, open up more and better shooting opportunities for Nylander, who has yet to score a five-on-five goal in the series (but who does have three primary assists in those spots)?

There’s reason to think yes in both cases.

Berube might harken back to a line that briefly had some success during Matthews’ early-season absence: Tavares and Marner alongside Bobby McMann.

That would leave Nylander to play alongside Knies and Matthews.

While Nylander hasn’t spent much time with Matthews this season, the two have played together long enough that re-establishing chemistry might(?) not be an issue.

For whatever it’s worth, maybe not much, the Leafs have typically destroyed teams in the Matthews-Nylander minutes: 62-34 over the past three seasons.

A top six built like this — Matthews with Nylander, Tavares with Marner — would throw a different look at the Senators and force their coach, Travis Green, to think twice about which line deserves top billing in Game 6.

A bolder (crazier?) option: Try to stack Matthews, Marner and Nylander on three different lines, an approach Berube tried briefly in March.

The Leafs coach could keep Knies with Matthews, add Max Domi (or Calle Järnkrok) at right wing, play Marner with Tavares, and try to build a Nylander-centric third line that can score. Something like this (with David Kämpf rejoining the lineup):

Knies – Matthews – Domi
McMann – Tavares – Marner
Järnkrok – Holmberg – Nylander
Laughton – Kämpf – Lorentz

The Domi-Matthews connection never clicked this season, not like last season when sparks flew.

It still be worth another try, especially if it gets more out of Domi, who, except for the OT winner in Game 2, has struggled mightily in this series.

It’s more likely Berube sticks with what’s gotten him here: Matthews, Marner and Knies.

If so, he still needs an answer to the who-plays-left-wing-with-Tavares-and-Nylander question.

The Leafs coach has tried just about everything save for Pacioretty, who has so far looked like a 36-year-old who sat out for two months before the playoffs. There’s no way (I think?) Berube can go back to Holmberg there for another game. Holmberg’s offensive limitations have really hamstrung that line and kept it from being a consistent threat. (The lack of a true playmaker for Nylander has been evident in this series.)

Domi, clearly, isn’t the answer. Järnkrok is a safer choice, but with Holmberg-like upside.

McMann feels like the only viable possibility short of dropping Knies down onto the line and moving someone else (McMann? Domi?) up to play with Matthews and Marner. The issue is that McMann has had a tough first NHL postseason. (Berube only dabbled sparingly with Scott Laughton playing on the left wing of the second line.)

Then there’s the bottom six to figure out.

The front office’s inability to upgrade the third-line centre position has proven problematic in this series (and figures to remain a problem even if the Leafs manage to get through to the second round).

Berube has been unable to find a third line (if we’re counting the Domi-led groups as third lines) that works and/or doesn’t hurt the team. Domi has an expected goals mark of 32 percent in this series.

Lines led by him have struggled offensively and defensively: High-danger chances are 15-4 for Ottawa in his 65 minutes.

To keep playing him in the middle of that third line doesn’t feel viable, not with the stakes — even if the alternatives are almost equally troublesome.

Should Craig Berube explore taking Max Domi out of the lineup for Game 6? (Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)

Playing Laughton there doesn’t feel tenable; he looked out of place there after the trade from Philadelphia and has fit in with Steven Lorentz and Järnkrok.

This is yet another reminder of why it was so shortsighted of Berube to abandon Nylander-at-centre as quickly as he did.

So it’s either Holmberg, Kämpf in cold from the press box, or Domi (again).

Holmberg is the low-risk choice. He has a tad more skill than Kämpf, who has lost his 4C gig to Laughton. (Kämpf, for whatever it’s worth, did play on a line with Nylander in the playoffs once upon a time.)

But for argument’s sake, let’s say Holmberg is the guy at 3C. Who plays with him?

A case could be made for taking Domi out entirely. He’s been a liability at both ends and placing him in the lineup is difficult, especially if the coaching staff decides to bring Nick Robertson in for some added scoring punch.

Then again, playing Robertson with Holmberg and anyone but Domi, his primary set-up man in the NHL, doesn’t make much sense.

Can the Leafs trust Robertson and Domi together on the same line, on the road in Ottawa? Should they? Is Pacioretty worth keeping around, if only for the lack of risk?

There are few easy answers here.

The Leafs don’t have the same malleability as some other teams in the postseason, not with so many one-dimensional forwards.

I would shake things up.

Option 1: Change, but not too much change

Knies – Matthews – Nylander
McMann – Tavares – Marner
Domi – Holmberg – Robertson
Lorentz – Laughton – Järnkrok

Use that third line sparingly and take a chance on Robertson scoring in his return to the lineup.

Option 2: A real shakeup

Knies – Matthews – Domi
Pacioretty – Tavares – Marner
McMann – Holmberg – Nylander
Lorentz – Laughton –Järnkrok

The goal here: Build three lines with legitimate scoring potential.

What do I suspect Berube will do? Something more familiar, with maybe the odd change, such as this:

Knies – Matthews – Marner
Järnkrok – Tavares – Nylander
McMann – Domi – Pacioretty
Lorentz – Laughton – Holmberg

Will it be enough?

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and Hockey Reference

(Top photo of Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews: John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)

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