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After the month of April last year, Aaron Judge was hitting .207, Chris Sale ranked 49th among qualified starters in ERA, Luis Gil had an ERA over 4.00, and Paul Skenes had not even made his MLB debut.
As we know now, Judge would go on to produce one of the greatest seasons ever by a right-handed hitter ever to earn MVP honors, Sale would win the National League Cy Young Award, and Gil and Skenes would each be named the Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues.
So, clearly, we can’t declare what’s going to happen over the next five months.
But we can take a step back after one full month of baseball and analyze which players have jumped out as early favorites for MLB’s top awards. FOX Sports MLB reporters Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar give you their one-month-in picks below.
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(Note: These picks will be updated each month through the rest of the season):
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Most Valuable Player
Kavner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Well, duh. A year ago, Judge finished his second MVP season with an absurd .322/.458/.701 slash line. It was the first time since Barry Bonds 20 years prior that a qualified hitter recorded a slugging percentage over .700. Well, Judge is currently beating his slash-line totals from last year in every category. Unsurprisingly, he leads the major leagues in hits, WAR, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. He has a batting average over .400 and is slugging over .750. Somehow, he has only been intentionally walked three times, but I can’t imagine that continues. He entered Wednesday with a 250 OPS+…that’s 150% better than league average. Even beyond his prodigious power, it’s possible a batting crown is in his future.
Thosar: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
At this point, I’ll be surprised if Judge doesn’t win his third career MVP award this year. It’s no longer shocking to see the Yankees slugger leading the American League in OPS, but the gradual rise in his batting average has been fascinating to watch. Judge entered Wednesday hitting .412. The only AL player who even came close to sniffing that number last month was his teammate, Paul Goldschmidt (.363), who has suddenly traded power for average. Not only is Judge the favorite to win the MVP, but the way things are looking, he has a strong case to win his first career batting title, too. Guys like Bobby Witt Jr. and Steven Kwan will try to catch him, but outdoing Judge on the baseball diamond is a futile path.
Cy Young
Thosar: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
There are a few flamethrowers leading the pack in the AL after the first month of play, but Crochet has separated himself from his peers with the most innings pitched (44) and second-most strikeouts (50) in April. Crochet has a slight edge in ERA (2.05) over AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal (2.34), but Skubal leads Crochet in WHIP (1.04/1.05). Skubal is going for the Cy Young repeat while attempting to take his Tigers back into the playoffs, so he won’t make it easy on Crochet to overtake him. I’m expecting these club aces to be neck-in-neck all year, but for now, Crochet has the lead in my book.
Kavner: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
It is primarily the Astros’ pitching staff, not their offense, that has kept them within striking distance of the top spot in the American League West. Headlining that group is Brown, who leads all qualified AL pitchers in fWAR (1.5) and ranks top five in ERA (1.22), WHIP (0.84) and strikeout rate (29.9%) while holding opponents to a .189 batting average. This is really just a continuation for Brown, who had the lowest ERA in MLB from the start of June 2024 through the end of last season. His four-seamer has picked up steam since then and has looked almost untouchable (.075 batting average against, 18 strikeouts) early this year.
Rookie of the Year
Kavner: Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox
This should be a fun race against Jacob Wilson, who looks like the Athletics’ version of Luis Arraez, but Campbell has the early lead in my book. Clearly, the Red Sox thought highly enough of the 23-year-old to make him their everyday second baseman off the bat. That created massive expectations, which he has met. Campbell is hitting for both average and power, leading all qualified MLB rookies in WAR, OPS and doubles. His .313 batting average and 16% walk rate have helped make him an on-base machine. It’ll be interesting to see how soon before top prospect Roman Anthony joins him in the Red Sox lineup.
Thosar: Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox
I’ve had Campbell on my radar ever since the Red Sox made the not-so-easy decision to make him their primary second baseman right out of camp, rather than have Alex Bregman slide over to second and let Rafael Devers keep his job at the hot corner. Campbell has rewarded Boston’s trust by recording the highest fWAR (1.3), OPS (.935) and walks drawn (19) among all AL rookies. He has a few challengers for the AL ROY, including A’s shortstop Jacob Wilson and Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson. It’ll be interesting to watch this race unfold over the course of the season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Most Valuable Player
Thosar: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
The Mets were the first team in MLB to eclipse 20 wins, and they wouldn’t be leading the NL East today if it wasn’t for a red-hot month from their franchise Polar Bear. Alonso enters May with the highest OPS in the National League (minimum 100 plate appearances) with a .346 average to boot. He shaved his strikeout rate from 24.7% in 2024 to 15.2% across his first 30 games this year. He’s addicted to posting up, and that’s a big advantage for manager Carlos Mendoza as he pencils in the lineup every day. Look, this award isn’t won in April, and there are at least four other players in the league who are contenders to win the NL MVP. But if Alonso can sustain his early-season numbers across a full year, and the Mets keep winning because of it, he has a solid case here. For now, though, his April performance was spectacular enough to give him the monthly honor.
Kavner: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Of all the awards, this one probably has the most legitimate candidates. Pete Alonso, Corbin Carroll and Kyle Tucker would all be fine answers, but I’ll go with the guy leading the Padres’ hot start. Tatis ranks in the top six among qualified NL hitters in hits, homers and every slash line category. He has eight home runs, seven steals and an OPS over 1.000 while cutting his strikeout rate to a career-low mark and maintaining his typical hard-hitting ways. Defensively, he leads all right fielders in outs above average. For the Padres to reach their goals this year, they need Tatis to have an MVP-type season. So far, he is delivering, and the underlying numbers suggest this should continue.
Cy Young
Kavner: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Paul Skenes is a great answer here, too, especially considering he outdueled Yamamoto in their meeting. But for now I’ll stick with the guy who has allowed four earned runs in 34 innings. Yamamoto’s 1.06 ERA is the lowest mark among all qualified MLB starters. The start to the 2025 season looks like a carryover of the success Yamamoto experienced last October, when he ended his standout debut season with one run allowed in 6.1 innings in Game 2 of the World Series. He has demonstrated more consistency early this year — he has allowed two earned runs or fewer and five hits or fewer in each of his six starts — and his splitter is helping him generate the fourth-highest strikeout rate among qualified NL pitchers. The pitch is both devastating and impartial, neutralizing lefties and righties alike.
Thosar: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Skenes is already a phenom in this sport, and watching him pitch a six-inning shutout against the reigning world champions showed you why. But dive a little deeper, and there are three stats in particular that make him the favorite to win the NL Cy Young. He’s holding opposing hitters to a .190 batting average, he has a minuscule 2.8 walk rate that’s second-lowest in the league, and he’s boasting a 0.80 WHIP with just one home run allowed. Even if his ERA (2.39) was not as excellent as Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s (1.04), Skenes looked absolutely unhittable in April.
Rookie of the Year
Thosar: Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers
Similar to Judge’s enormous lead in the AL MVP race, I think the NL ROY is Sasaki’s to lose. Even though Sasaki’s tenure with the Dodgers has been off to a questionable start, his pedigree in Japan and flashes of electricity on the mound make him a frontrunner for the award. After all, he’s only 23 years old with a ton of potential and a long runway to grow. If Sasaki can pull it off, this could be the second straight year we see a starting pitcher win the NL ROY after Skenes rose to prominence last season.
Kavner: Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers
Do you know how close I came to taking Tim Tawa here? The answer is very close, but I’m not sure a sample of 10 hits — even if four are homers — warrants the top selection. The point is that the current list of contenders have left a lot to be desired. Sasaki and Dylan Crews are the favorites, but the former has nearly as many walks (18) as strikeouts (20), while the latter — though he’s heating up — entered Wednesday with a .620 OPS on the year. I’m interested to see if Bubba Chandler follows the lead of his Pirates ace and ends up competing for the award. For now, though, Sasaki has at least found a way to limit damage and work around traffic, despite an alarming number of free passes and concerning metrics under the hood. If he can present the splitter as a strike more often, the pitch is a whiff machine.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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