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Generally speaking, the public betting masses love favorites. But that’s not the case when it comes to 2025 NBA championship odds.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics — and, to a lesser extent, the Cleveland Cavaliers — have created noteworthy separation from the rest of the league. Their odds are short, leading to lower payouts, which sends action elsewhere in NBA Finals betting.
“Not a lot of people want to take a big favorite. They’re looking for value in a lot of the other teams that are left,” said David Lieberman, head of NBA trading for Caesars Sports.
And there’s value to be had, even as the second round of the playoffs draws near. Lieberman provides his insights on the NBA Finals odds market.
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Unique Season
Oklahoma City and Boston have been 1-2 in NBA championship odds all season long. The Celtics opened as the favorite, but the Thunder’s monster success led them to overtake Boston during the regular season.
Now, Caesars has OKC as the +145 favorite to win the title, with Boston close behind at +200. Oddsmakers see those two teams as head-and-shoulders above all others.
“This season has been a bit unique in that there are two such heavy favorites at the top. That’s allowed the rest of the market to stay a little longer in odds,” Lieberman said. “There were some juicy prices during the regular season on the Lakers and the Warriors.”
Those two teams in particular are trouble spots at Caesars and other U.S. sportsbooks. Or in the Lakers’ case, we can now saw “were” instead of “are,” after L.A. lost its first-round series to Minnesota 4-1.
That’s OK with Lieberman and the Caesars risk room. The Lakers and Warriors could be had at odds of +4000 or greater during the regular season, creating significant liability.
“Certainly, all season long, there’s been a lot of betting on the Lakers and the Warriors. And it kicked up a notch at the trade deadline,” Lieberman said, alluding to Los Angeles grabbing Luka Dončić and Golden State landing Jimmy Butler.
“Those are two teams we don’t want to see win. But that’s the case every year.”
Golden State is now the +1800 fourth choice in Caesars’ NBA Finals odds, joined by Minnesota.
West Worries
In fact, most of Caesars Sports’ NBA championship concerns — and even conference championship worries — are in the West. The book has liability to the Warriors, Timberwolves, Rockets, Nuggets and Clippers.
“If any of these teams beat the Thunder, it’ll be a sizable upset and not a winning outcome for most sportsbooks,” Lieberman said. “Pretty much every one of those teams will be a decent loser. The Timberwolves were like +8000 at some point.”
Even before the first round, pitted against the No. 3 seed Lakers, the Timberwolves were in the +6000 range to win the NBA title. The expectation was that Dončić, LeBron James & Co. would show No. 6 seed Minnesota an early exit.
Instead, the T-Wolves knocked out the Lakers in five games. And whoever survives the Nuggets-Clippers series is concerning, as well.
“The Clippers and Nuggets are very talented,” Lieberman said. “Because we do so well on the favorites, we’re not gonna do as well on the others.”
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What The Bookmakers Want
The first three teams to reach the second round of the NBA playoffs were, in order, the Thunder, Cavaliers and Celtics. If Lieberman has his way, that trend continues throughout the postseason.
Nothing would make bookmakers happier than a Celtics-Thunder NBA Finals, with Cavs-Thunder not far behind.
“Boston and Oklahoma City’s odds were so short that it didn’t allow the chance for liability to get very high. As of now, we’re rooting for those two teams,” Lieberman said. “Logically, the next-best case would be the Cavs. Their odds got chopped down really early, so liability hasn’t built up.”
Preseason, Cleveland could’ve been had at +5000. That’d be a great ticket to have now, with even a $100 bet profiting $5,000 if the Cavs go the distance. But as Lieberman alluded to, the Cavs’ long odds vanished in a hurry after they opened the season 15-0. Cleveland is now the +500 third choice, behind only OKC and Boston.
Caesars also wouldn’t mind the Knicks coming out of the East. But the likelihood is pretty slim.
“I don’t know if the Knicks have the pieces to get through those top two teams,” Lieberman said.
What The Public Wants
A clash between Oklahoma City and Boston would probably be fine with the public betting masses. But it’s not nearly as attractive as, say, Celtics vs. Warriors. Golden State currently leads Houston 3-2 in a best-of-7 first-round series.
Even Caesars wouldn’t necessarily mind a Boston-Golden State NBA Finals, which would generate a boatload of betting.
“In theory, if you got Celtics-Warriors, then there’d be more interest from the public. Oklahoma City vs. Boston would be popular, too, best vs. best. But OKC probably doesn’t carry the popularity of those other teams,” Lieberman said.
In other words, Caesars and surely many other operators would welcome a matchup that will attract a lot of betting action. But there’s a caveat.
“We don’t mind a Celtics-Warriors series, as long as we get the Celtics to win the series. A juicier matchup might be better in the long run,” Lieberman said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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