NHL playoffs Game 6 previews: The key matchup to watch in each series

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Matchups matter in the regular season. But everything is amplified in the playoffs. 

Playing the matchup game against a rotating cast of 31 teams is one thing. It’s another to do it against the same team for up to seven consecutive games. Pre-scouting helps players learn each other’s tendencies in advance. But going head-to-head can take that familiarity of habits and styles to new heights. 

If one matchup tilts in one direction, coaches can try to tweak tactics and adjust deployment when the series shifts back to home ice to change that. Others can take advantage of potential weak points with last change. 

It’s a pivotal part of playoff hockey — an element that sometimes can decide a game or series. With five teams looking to extend their season another game, and five looking to advance to Round 2, let’s take a closer look at some key matchups to watch in the upcoming Game 6s. 

Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings

Connor McDavid vs. Phillip Danault 

The Kings have options to take on matchup minutes, but down the stretch, Phillip Danault shouldered the heaviest workload. So it’s no surprise that L.A. matched him against Connor McDavid on home ice. 

McDavid only mustered one point against Danault’s line in Game 1. While the Kings and Oilers broke even in shots, L.A. earned an 80 percent expected goal rate in their head-to-head minutes. Instead, McDavid found openings to score when he went up against Adrian Kempe’s line. 

McDavid was held off the scoresheet despite controlling play in their head-to-head minutes in Game 2. So the Oilers swapped around their deployment on home ice, instead sending out their best against Anze Kopitar. In 8:18 matchup minutes at five-on-five, the Oilers went up 21-5 in shots, 2-0 in scoring, and 85 percent of the expected goal share. 

In Game 4, McDavid again took on Danault, and the game was lopsided in Edmonton’s favor. The same was true in Game 5, but the gap wasn’t as dramatic. 

So in Game 6, the Oilers will likely try to keep McDavid and Draisaitl away from Danault, Trevor Moore and Warren Foegele since they’ve done the most damage away from that line. That’s the matchup the Kings should be striving for; Danault hasn’t been perfect against McDavid, but his line has done a better job limiting the damage of two of the best players in the world. That may give the Kings the best chance of forcing a Game 7. 

Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Kirill Kaprizov vs. Jack Eichel

Through five games, this series has seen a power-versus-power matchup of Kirill Kaprizov and Jack Eichel. This matchup has been a story throughout the series because the Wild’s top line of Eichel, Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek has done a great job slowing Eichel down. It took four games for him to earn a point and five to have a breakout night, with a series-high 2.87 Game Score. 

The two have played about 50 head-to-head five-on-five minutes. And in that time, Minnesota had a 3-1 scoring advantage. Expand to special teams, where penalty killer Eichel sees a lot of a Kaprizov-led power play unit, and the goal differential is 5-2. 

The matchup is closer below the surface. Kaprizov dominated their 5:28 five-on-five minutes in Game 1, with an 11-3 shot attempt edge and 85 percent expected goal rate. In Game 2, Eichel had the edge in shot volume but lost the quality battle. 

Back on home ice, the Wild didn’t stray from this matchup, either. Kaprizov feasted on the Eichel line in Game 3, in a 5-2 win. A mid-game lineup adjustment, that saw William Karlsson jump up to Eichel’s line for more two-way oomph, helped Vegas gain a slight advantage in Game 4. 

That new-look Eichel-Karlsson pair on the top line tilted the ice for Vegas in Game 5. In 12:12 head-to-head minutes against Kaprizov, Eichel and the Golden Knights controlled play with a 13-8 edge in shot attempts and 76 percent expected goal rate. Now, Kaprizov and the Wild have to find a way to counter that back in Minnesota to stay alive in Game 6. 

Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars

Nathan MacKinnon vs. Cody Ceci

One of the biggest storylines heading into this series was how a Miro Heiskanen-less blue line would handle big minutes against the Avalanche’s best. The Stars have managed better than expected with a 3-2 series lead. But there is at least one more game to get through. 

That means weathering more of the Cody Ceci-Nathan MacKinnon matchup. 

It’s a matchup that rightfully raises red flags. But the Stars have a reason for it. There is value to being a minute-eater in this league, even if it just means enduring time against the opponents’ best to free up the rest of the blue line.

In 10:34 head-to-head minutes between Ceci and MacKinnon at five-on-five in Game 1, Colorado tilted the ice with an edge in shots (19-7 attempts), expected goals (85 percent) and scoring (1-0). In Game 2, Ceci helped hold MacKinnon to a 22 percent expected goal rate. In Game 3, the Stars were outshot but won the quality battle. 

Down 2-1, though, the Avs turned on the jets in Game 4. Colorado generated offense in waves, and it started with the team outshooting Dallas 20-6, with an 85 percent expected goal rate, when MacKinnon and Ceci were deployed together. By Game 5, the Avalanche broke through in those matchup minutes with a 2-1 scoring advantage.

If Heiskanen returns in Game 6, the Stars may want their best defenders to take on MacKinnon. But with home ice, the Ceci matchup is the one Colorado will likely target. 

St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets

Jordan Binnington vs. Connor Hellebuyck

Year after year, Connor Hellebuyck is one of the best goalies in the world — until the playoffs. It’s a narrative that developed over the last couple of seasons and has some teeth. 

Hellebuyck’s play at the 4 Nations gave the impression that playing in a high-pressure environment may not be an issue this spring. But five games into the series, there are some real concerns about his game in a playoff environment. 

The Jets won Game 1 despite Hellebuyck getting off to a shaky start. Red flags emerged when the series shifted to St. Louis. He allowed a combined 5.96 goals above expected in Games 3 and 4. And while his defense left him exposed at times, especially to screened shots, he still hasn’t been The Guy the Jets need. 

Jordan Binnington, on the other hand, hasn’t always put up sparkling regular-season numbers. Some years, he is erratic and below average. In other seasons, he is stellar. Even this year was somewhat up-and-down before the 4 Nations break. But he has the pedigree in high-pressure situations. He proved that in 2019 on his way to a Stanley Cup, and as recently as the 4 Nations, when he backstopped Canada to a win over Hellebuyck and Team USA. 

Binnington gave his team a chance to win with three quality starts in five games this series. Can he rebound after a poor Game 5 to extend the Blues’ season?

Can Hellebuyck raise his level to advance to Round 2? He may have earned the win on Wednesday night, but he was far from a brick wall. With uncertainty around Mark Scheifele’s health, there is even more pressure on him in Game 6. 

Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Linus Ullmark vs. Anthony Stolarz

Shifting East, the matchup to watch is the same from the series preview: Linus Ullmark against Anthony Stolarz.

Stolarz came into the postseason hot after a sparkling regular season. He carried that momentum into Game 1, earning a GSAx of 1.46. With the support of the Leafs’ defense, he put up another two quality starts to help his team go up 3-0 in the series. 

But in Game 4, he struggled against his workload and allowed 1.50 more goals than expected. Despite not facing a ton of shots or scoring chances, he stumbled a bit in Game 5 as well. Stolarz isn’t the reason the Senators have won the last two games in this series — a lack of goal support is — but the Leafs need him to stand tall in Game 6. 

That’s what Ottawa also needs from Ullmark.

Ullmark’s playoff experience was a mixed bag heading into Round 1. So was his first regular season with the Senators. The highs were game-breaking, but some of the lows were challenging. He excelled down the stretch, but didn’t carry the momentum into the playoffs. Ullmark allowed about four goals above expected through three games to open the series, which raised concerns about his play in this setting. 

He rebounded with a solid outing in Game 4. In Game 5, he was the difference. Ullmark saved 3.31 goals above expected for a stolen win. That is the level the Senators need from their starter to extend this series.

— Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers

(Photo of Connor McDavid and Phillip Danault: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)

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