2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, horses, post positions, date: Surprising picks by horse racing expert

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Kenny McPeek is one of only three trainers in history to pull off the Kentucky Derby-Kentucky Oaks double last year and he’ll have a chance to repeat history with one horse in each race this year. The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be held on Saturday at Churchill Downs, with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET and McPeek’s lone entry in the field for the 151st Run for the Roses will be Render Judgment. Listed as a 30-1 longshot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, Render Judgment has yet to record a stakes win, but broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last October. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds after winning the Santa Anita Derby.

He’s followed by Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty (5-1), Arkansas Derby winner Sandman (6-1) and Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square (12-1) among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel RacingTwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Tapit’s bloodline is well-established enough at this point that you can virtually guarantee that his progeny will take significant action in a big race. However, Sandman’s performances have been incredibly uneven, as he’s managed only one stakes win in five appearances and needed a blistering early pace to set him up to take advantage of the closing speed that has become a calling card of Tapit’s sons.

“He will need help up front again and will need to find a trip in the 20-horse field, but he delivers a steady run once produced. Being outside isn’t ideal, but since he just drops to the back of the pack, this draw might keep him in the clear. Lots of haters dislike his prep saying that his final quarter in the Arkansas Derby was pedestrian,” Yu told SportsLine. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Luxor Cade , even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Luxor Cafe has pedigree on his side as a son of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah and has won four straight races heading into the Kentucky Derby 2025.

“He should get the Kentucky Derby distance, and his stalking running style works well in this race,” Yu told SportsLine. “He is likely to end up farther back early than he is used to, but I don’t see that as a major issue. The connections have stated that he had plenty left in the tank when a 5-length winner of his prep race, and we know the Japanese can get a horse ready to run on any continent.” See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions

2025 Kentucky Derby horse previews

1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza 

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