Canelo Alvarez vs. William Scull fight prediction, odds, start time, where to watch, live stream, date, picks

Since 2010, Canelo Alvarez has fought on Cinco de Mayo weekend a total of 10 times, with the Mexican superstar bringing his talents to the fight capital of Las Vegas for seven of those appearances. 

Traditions tend to change within the sport over time, however. And even though Alvarez (62-2-2, 39 KOs) will return to the ring this Saturday in his preferred spot on the calendar, the drastic change in location has seemed to play a big role in how much buzz and excitement is currently being felt across boxing. 

Maybe it’s the fact that Alvarez’s event, which emanates from the intimate The Venue Riyadh Season in Saudi Arabia, is just one of three fight cards in successive days beginning with Friday’s much-anticipated “The Ring” series card from New York’s Times Square (and ending with Naoya Inoue’s U.S. return in Las Vegas on Sunday), which is all part of powerful adviser Turki Alalshikh’s master plan to take over control of the sport. 

Or maybe it’s merely the unheralded entity that is Alvarez’s opponent, obscure IBF super middleweight titleholder William Scull (23-0, 9 KOs), a native of Cuba who fights out of Germany, that has brought so much apathy and malaise to Alvarez’s next fight as the unified 168-pound champion continues to shamelessly duck David Benavidez. 

Either way, Saturday’s undisputed clash (DAZN PPV, 7 p.m. ET — Buy Now) only came to be because Alvarez was stripped of his IBF title last fall for choosing to fight Edgar Berlanga rather than make his mandatory defense against Scull (who outpointed Vladimir Shishkin for the vacant IBF title in their sleep-inducing October clash).

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Earlier this year, Alvarez spurned an offer from YouTube influencer Jake Paul for a big-money fight on Netflix in the 11th hour to sign a four-fight deal with Alalshikh, which includes Alvarez fighting three times on Saudi Arabian soil. The choice of Scull as his first opponent seems strategic so that Alvarez can, with a victory, regain the undisputed crown in time for his expected fall showdown with Terence Crawford, which would likely mark Dana White and TKO Boxing’s debut in the sport after announcing a partnership with Alalshikh and Saudi Arabia.

Alvarez might still sit among the top 10 pound-for-pound at age 34, but it would be hard to recall a fight of his that has fallen this far under the radar – even for boxing fans – during fight week. Not only is Alvarez used to selling out Las Vegas arenas filled with his adoring Mexican and Mexican-American fans, his debut some 8,000 miles away in Riyadh will come in front of just 6,000 spectators, in a city mostly known from a boxing sense for its relaxed atmosphere in terms of crowds. 

It was hard to overlook at Monday’s grand arrival, when Alvarez spoke to DAZN cameras on the red carpet outside the arena in Riyadh, the tiny handful of spectators that were present. 

“I feel great. I feel like I’m at home, and I’ve trained really well,” Alvarez said on Monday. “This is something new for me and I’m very grateful. This is one of my dreams to fight in other countries. I’m enjoying everything about it.

“This is important for me because Mexican fighters go to other countries as opponents. Now I’m here as the ‘A-side’ in Saudi Arabia and that opens the door to other fighters from Mexico, and I’m proud to do that for my country.”

Although the 33-year-old Scull is unbeaten in 23 pro fights, he was known by only the hardest of hard-core fans as recently as one year ago. Scull turned pro in 2016 and fought 10 of his first 11 fights in Argentina before embarking upon a seven-year fighting residency in his adopted home of Germany. 

The only victories of note for Scull came in his last two fights in 2024 when he outpointed American journeyman Sean Hemphill in an eight-round bout (on the Alvarez-Jaime Munguia pay-per-view undercard) before edging out the unbeaten Shishkin in a less-than-inspiring performance. 

“People can say whatever they want, this is a fight and I’ve done everything to make this a great night on Saturday,” Scull said at Wednesday’s open workout. “I’ve been ready for this moment. It took me a while to get invited to the party, but I assure you, I will be taking home those belts.”

Scull has said the right things during fight week as it pertains to projecting confidence that an upset could be at hand. But it’s hard to imagine him having much success against a future Hall-of-Famer like Alvarez, whose only career defeats have come against fellow legends Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol. 

All one has to do is take a look at the betting odds, which have Scull listed as high as a 15-to-1 underdog against the -5000 Alvarez to see what the expectations are regarding his potential for adding his name to the history books by becoming just the second undisputed champion at 168 pounds in the four-belt era.

Part of the reason why Scull has taken so many six and eight-round bouts over the past three years was that he held onto the IBF’s No. 1 contender position for 27 months and didn’t want to risk the opportunity of losing his shot at the title.  

“I have the utmost respect for Canelo but I’m here for one reason and that’s to win,” Scull said at Monday’s grand arrival. “That’s it. I’m gonna eat him. I’m focused on what I have to do. I’m very excited because I’m here to shut some mouths and do exactly what I need to do on Saturday.”

Fight card, odds

• Canelo Alvarez (c) -5000 vs. William Scull (c) +1500, undisputed super middleweight title
• Jaime Munguia -1000 vs. Bruno Surace +600, super middleweights
• Martin Bakole -365 vs. Efe Ajagba +285, heavyweights
• Noel Mikaelian -150 vs. Badou Jack (c) +125, WBC cruiserweight title

Where to watch Alvarez vs. Scull

• Date: May 3 | Location: The Venue — Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
• Start time: 7 p.m. ET (Main card) 
• How to watch: DAZN PPV (Buy Now and get a discounted rate when you purchase Friday’s card and Saturday’s card together)

Prediction

If you’re looking for positives regarding Scull’s upset hopes, the slick boxer brings a defined Cuban style to the ring with good timing and movement, along with a quick right hand and decent accuracy. The problem, beyond his decided lack of experience compared to that of Alvarez, is that Scull is largely solid but not anything close to spectacular, which is exactly what he would need to be in order to outwork and outthink Alvarez.

Thanks to his efficient output and tendency to hold, Scull doesn’t get hit a ton. But he will be playing a dangerous game hoping the judges will reward him for his low output against someone like Alvarez, who typically gets the benefit of the doubt in these situations because he lands such clean, hard punches. Scull also faded late against Shishkin and needed to go into survival mode in the final round after being hurt. 

Expect Alvarez to take his time navigating Scull’s rhythm while slowly breaking him down with body shots. Unless Scull goes into a defensive cocoon and spends the rest of the fight circling away, a mid-fight stoppage for Alvarez feels inevitable. Pick: Alvarez via TKO7