Free MLB player props, odds, bets for May 2: Aaron Judge among best bets for Friday total bases picks

After an abbreviated slate on Thursday, the Friday MLB schedule features every team in action. Thus, there is no shortage of quality options for MLB player props such as making total bases predictions. New York stars Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso lead their respective leagues in OPS as both have an O/U for their total bases prop of 1.5. However, their MLB prop odds differ as Judge is at -125 to hit the Over, while Alonso is plus-money at +115 to go Over, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Judge does get the benefit of facing Rays starter, Ryan Pepiot, who has a 4.24 ERA, while Alonso will match up with St. Louis’ Sonny Gray, who is undefeated this year with a 3.60 ERA.

Who’s on the mound should certainly factor into your MLB prop picks, and no team may have a more advantageous matchup than Kansas City. It will face Baltimore’s Dean Kremer, whose 7.04 ERA is the worst in all of baseball. So, should you back the Overs with MLB TB props for the likes of Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Jonathan India? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB total bases parlay picks. 

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll (+276) on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB total bases props on Friday. These four picks can be parlayed for +1063 odds and would pay out $1,063 on a $100 bet at DraftKings.

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-125)

Judge has homered in three of his last four games, and the one contest in which he didn’t homer, he logged a pair of hits. Overall, he’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in five straight games, as well as in eight of his last nine starts. The two-time MVP is somehow performing even better than ever as his entire batting splits are all career-highs. He leads the AL in all of those splits, as well as home runs (10), hits (50) and most importantly, total bases (89). Judge is forecasted to easily hit the Over with 2.02 total bases, making this a great value prop at DraftKings.

Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 total bases (-185)

Noticing favorable splits should be a part of everyone’s MLB prop stratetgy, and Nootbaar has a clear split in his favor on Friday. The Cardinals will host the Mets, which means Nootbaar should enjoy some home cooking at Busch Stadium. He’s hitting .407 at the ballpark this season, compared to just .125 on the road. He’s also averaging 2.3 total bases in home games which makes his +155 prop line for Over 1.5 total bases appealing as well. However, it may be prudent to play it safe as SportsLine’s advanced model projects 1.11 total bases for the Cardinals outfielder.

Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 total bases (-105)

Players hitting .185 like Pasquantino are ones you normally lean Under in regard to all his batter props, but the Royals first baseman gets the luxury of facing MLB’s worst pitcher. Kansas City will face Kremer, whose ERA of 7.04 ranks 99th out of the 99 MLB pitchers with 30-plus innings this season. Kremer has allowed the fourth-most hits in the majors, while his 2.05 HR/9 is the fifth-highest in the sport. Pasquantino was a .267 career hitter coming into this year, so he’s better than what he’s displayed thus far, and he is coming off extra base hits in back-to-back games for the first time this season. He’s listed at -105 at both DraftKings and BetMGM.

Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Yastrzemski and the Giants are facing the worst team in baseball in the Rockies, who are trotting out the pitcher who’s allowed the most hits (50) in the NL in Antonio Senzatela. It’s the perfect combination for Yastrzemski to keep his hot streak going as he’s had multiple hits in back-to-back games and has averaged 2.29 total bases over his last seven games. He’s also battered Senzatela throughout his career, going 4 for 9 with a 1.111 OPS across those matchups. The model projects that success to continue as Yastrzemski logs 2.06 total bases on average.

Want more MLB picks for Friday?

You’ve seen the model’s MLB total bases prop picks for some popular props on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

You can also see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 86-42 roll (+1833.5) on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 86-42 roll.