James Harden reverses trend of late-series stinkers, but the math doesn’t bode well for Game 7

The Los Angeles Clippers needed a big performance out of James Harden on Thursday, and they got one. Facing elimination, the Clippers held off the Denver Nuggets, 111-105, in Game 6 behind 28 points, eight assists and six rebounds from Harden. Game 7 is set for Saturday at 7:30 ET in Denver. Buckle up. 

Had Harden laid an egg in this one, he would’ve been wise to stay offline for a few days because he would’ve been in for a social-media skewering given his overall reputation for postseason shrinkage (which, to be fair, is pretty exaggerated), and more specifically his recent history of late-series stinkers, which is irrefutable. 

The numbers, as they say, don’t lie. Over his last 11 playoff games when facing elimination, Harden was 1-10 and shooting under 40% entering play on Thursday. Over his last five elimination games, all losses, he had averaged just 17.6 points per game.

This was the first elimination game Harden has won since 2020, when the Rockets somehow managed to defeat the Thunder despite Harden missing 11 of his 15 shots and eight of his nine 3-pointers. 

These late-series stinkers are, unfortunately, a trademark characteristic of Harden’s postseason bio. Two years ago with Philadelphia, Harden went for 45 and 42 points in two of the first four games of the 76ers‘ second-round series against Boston. The Sixers actually led that series 3-2, but in Games 6 and 7 Harden combined for just 22 points on 1-for-11 3-point shooting. He had nine points in Game 7. 

Last season, it was the same story. Harden averaged 26 points through the first four games of the Clippers’ first-round series against Dallas; then he scored seven points in Game 5 and missed all six of his 3-pointers in Game 6 as the Clippers went from 2-2 to eliminated. 

This Denver series was playing out almost exactly to the Harden script. He came out firing with 32 in Game 1 … and then began the descent as he averaged just 16 points over Games 2-5. In the pivotal Game 5 with the series tied 2-2, Harden went for 11. His shot attempts had also gone down like clockwork, from 22 in Game 1 to 17 in Game 2, 14 in Game 3, 11 in Game 4 and finally just nine in Game 5. 

It was all setting up for him to be the goat — and not the good kind — with a Game 6 dud.

But he reversed the trend, scoring 21 first-half points. If you’re a pessimist, you’ll note that he only scored seven points in the second half, but now you’re just getting picky. A big elimination game out of James Harden is not something to quibble over, because it doesn’t happen often.

The reprieve from social slander may not last long with Game 7 looming. If Harden lays an egg in that one and the Clippers lose, nobody is going to remember what he did in Game 6. And, at least statistically, it’s a pretty solid bet that Harden won’t be able to deliver a second straight elimination-game gem. 

Consider that even with Thursday’s performance, Harden has still only managed to score more than 20 points in 12 of his 25 career elimination games. That’s less than a 50% clip. For reference, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant have combined to play in 59 career games facing elimination, and between the three of them they have only gone under 20 points three times. That’s a 95% bet. 

Harden, by contrast, is just a 48% bet to go over 20 points in an elimination game. Even worse, since 2020, he is a 16% bet (2 for 12) to actually win an elimination game, even including Thursday night’s victory. Can he really do it twice in a row? The math, and his history, would suggest not.